No matter what happens in Week 13, non-colluding lovebirds, Air Jordy and Schoolya’gain, will finish #1 and #2, respectively. Air Jordy will repeat as Regular Season Champion and this will serve as the only recognition thereof. The real party is just getting started.
Playoff seeds #3 through #6 will be mixed based on the results of Week 13. If you currently reside in one of these 4 positions in the league standings, you will certainly make the playoffs in one of these 4 spots.
Playoff seed #7 and #8 will not have it that easy. As we all know, the #8 seed dethroned the #1 seed in the first round of the playoffs last season and went on to win the league championship. That #8 seed is still up for grabs and the potential for history to repeat itself rests in the hands of 5 teams. I have broken down the 8 scenarios in Week 13 that will determine who gets a crack at the title.
Our current standings tiebreaker is set to Head to Head (H2H) record. The secondary tiebreaker is ‘Total Points For’ (the total points a team scored across the season). There are 2 primary results, each with 4 scenarios that determine who the #8 seed will be. The 2 primary results are essentially who wins and who loses the RGIII’s Company vs. Lake Hickory Swallops matchup.
Primary Result 1 – RGIII’s Company wins. Lake Hickory Swallops loses.
In the 4 scenarios outlined below, Lake Hickory Swallops will retain the #8 seed based on the H2H record between the two tied teams at 5-8 in Scenarios 1 and 3, and the Total Points For where the H2H records offset each other (each of the 3 teams at 5-8 in Scenarios 2 and 4 beat each other once, i.e., LHS 1-1, PC 1-1, T4VP 1-1). I place an asterisk next to the Points tiebreaker because LHS only has a 32.75 Total Points advantage over T4VP. If T4VP’s results in Week 13 exceed LHS’s results by this margin (very possible), then T4VP could win the tiebreaker. This is the only scenario T4VP makes the playoffs.
Simplified: If LHS loses, he better hope T4VP doesn’t outscore him by 32.75 points. Otherwise he’s in.
Primary Result 2 – Lake Hickory Swallops wins, RGIII’s Company loses.
This was a must-win for RG3. If he loses, he does not have a chance at the playoffs. In Scenarios 5 through 8 outlined below, the winner of the Packer Cave and Ya Down With ODBJ matchup takes the #8 seed based simply on the H2H records.
Simplified: RG3 and T4VP guaranteed out. Winner of PC vs. YD matchup is in.
*By the way, if Ya Down with ODBJ wins, his H2H tiebreaker with RG3 in Scenarios 5 and 8 was a result of the Week 4 matchup between the 2 teams where YD wins by the smallest possible margin, 0.10 points (142.20 – 142.30). I’ll say it again – that is a single yard for any player on the roster. Fucking inches man.
I do have a caveat to this analysis, especially with Primary Result 1. There is no official setting for a 3-way tiebreaker, like we have in Scenarios 2 and 4, and I have to assume that the tiebreaker goes to the ‘Total Points For’ as this is the secondary option. If the results end up different than what I have outlined, I will certainly investigate what the actual system settings determined and either provide justification or rectification. Either way, we will make sure the #8 spot is accurately and fairly seeded.
Go forth. Do what you do.
-The Commish
“A team that thinks it’s going to lose is going to lose.”
-Vince Lombardi
The Lombardi Three 