I’d like to be able to lay out the potential Win-Loss consequences for the eight (8) available playoff seeds, but with 12 of 14 teams only two games apart, the ‘if – then’ scenarios are very tough to estimate. There are a few broad likelihoods that you can anticipate. From the bottom up:
1. Lake Hickory Swallops is the only team already out of the playoffs. However, we must show our respect to the team that met, by far, the toughest schedule in the league this season. The Points Against LHS to date is 2,130.15. This is 188.85 points more than the next toughest schedule. Looking back at previous seasons, no other team faced this tough a schedule. Unprecedented. LHS met an average of 177.5 points per week in each of his matchups. It is damn near impossible to win against those numbers no matter how well you play. Sometimes, it just comes down to scheduling. Unfortunately, LHS caught each of his opponents this season on their best week.
To ensure everyone in the league that I am not blowing smoke up anyone’s ass, I want to further demonstrate my point by comparing The Swallops’ schedule with that of Air Jordy’s. I use Air Jordy because he faced the second easiest schedule this season with his Points Against at 1,788.90. Had their schedules been reversed, based on weekly points, LHS would be sitting in playoff contention at 6-6 and AJ would be at 3-9. I ran this analysis against a few other teams and the results for LHS were similar. Replaced with just about any other team’s schedule, LHS would be sitting with at least 5 wins.
This analysis does not sit well with me. This reinforces the realization that I am reminded of quite often; that most of our success in fantasy football is pure luck. Plain and simple. We are nothing but what time and circumstance has made us. Don’t let it get you down. And don’t let it give you false expectations.
2. “Must-win” is one of those sports adages that borders on overuse. But with 7 teams only a game apart, that cliché couldn’t ring more true. The five teams at 5-7 and the two teams at 6-6 absolutely must win. I would have thought the two 6-6 teams would have some outs if they lost, but unfortunately they both play lower ranked teams at 5-7, so they don’t have any power to ding one of the higher ranked teams and open some options above them.
3. The five teams at 7-5 are a lock for the playoffs if they win. There is a reasonable chance that if they lose, they could get bumped by either of the 6-6 teams that win. This could rearrange the playoff seeding quite dramatically. Remember, the tiebreaker for a parallel W-L record is matchup. E.g., if Tannehill for President finishes 8-5, and Unlockin Yo Schtuff finishes 8-5, T4P gets the higher seed because he beat UYS when they met in Week 11.
4. Trouble Hunter is a lock for the #1 seed no matter what happens. Nicely done.
Most importantly each and every team IS playing for something. There are still four weeks left in the season (one regular, three playoffs) and every team will be playing every week. Any of the bottom six finishers can win the Consolation playoffs and a guaranteed #4 draft pick next season. Also, based on the new payout structure, every team in the league, no matter how you finish in the rankings, is paid out at $3/win if their record is at or above .500. So, if you finish at 8-8 or above, you will get at least half of your dues back (well, almost half – $24). Also still up for grabs is the Regular Season 2nd Place Bonus. See the League Dues page for a recap on the new payout structure we are experimenting with this season.
I do have one more little morsel of encouragement. At the beginning of the season, post Week 2, I announced the formation of the Lombardi Legends league. The Lombardi Legends will coincide with the regular season and contest the top four teams from this season against each other. The top four teams will be determined by the Win-Loss records from the full 16-week season, regardless of final standings following the playoffs. Tiebreaker is total points. This is still wide open for half the teams in the league. Every win counts. And based on the current standings, there will likely be a tiebreaker at the end of the season. So every point counts too.
The Lombardi Three 