Author: League Commissioner

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FINALS

The final week of the season and the Playoff Finals are here.

Unlockin Yo Schtuff (6) 9-6
vs.
Tannehill for President (4) 10-5

A Packer-backer and TL3 OG is in the finals! Unlockin Yo Schtuff has been up and down, unable to put a win streak together all season. Unlockin strung two wins together in weeks 1 and 2 and hadn’t repeated that feat until the past two weeks. However, he is averaging 160.93 points (5th) on the season, 162.98 points (1st) in the playoffs, and has a season high of 188.70 points (9th) in week 8.

TL3 sophomore, Tannehill for President, is riding a league-leading 8-2 record over the last 10 weeks and averaging 168.96 points per week (2nd) over this time frame, including his season high of 208.20 points (4th) in week 6. On the season T4P has a slight edge on Unlockin at 162.60 points per week (4th), but has only put together an average of 153.88 points (3rd) in the playoffs.

The last time these two teams met in week 11, Tannehill edged Unlockin by a mere 3 points. The final score was 171.65 to 168.65.

PAYDAY

I have to say, I think this little pay structure realignment/experiment seems to have worked out. The #1 overall seed didn’t run away with it, but will still walk away with a really nice return (at least $130). We certainly can’t say the same for the last two Regular Season Champions (cough, cough, same guy)…

For now we have at least six teams in the money with the potential for three more to hit pay dirt. Schoolya’gain and Wanted Dez or Alive each need one more win to reach the league minimum. If Schoolya’ wins, she simply earns back half her league dues and a 7th place finish. Wanted is in the 3rd place matchup with Air Jordy and is not only playing for his eighth win; this final W will also net him the Playoff 3rd Place Bonus. With a win, he earns almost all of his dues back. A loss, and he gets nothing but the extra 3rd round draft pick he already takes with him into next season.

The Whiteshadow and Eastside Forty-Ounces are both vying for their eighth win and the Consolation Bracket trophy (9th place). The Consolation Bracket winner is guaranteed the 4th round draft pick next year so there is much to play for in this matchup. The last time these two teams met in week 10, Whiteshadow dismantled Eastside by more than 40 points and didn’t leave a single point on the bench. The final score was 167.05 to 126.80.

LOMBARDI LEGENDS

ll2

Last but not least, there are a few teams whose final game will determine if they make the cut for next season’s Lombardi Legends league. Trouble Hunter and Tannehill for President are a lock. Unlockin and Air Jordy can snag the last two spots with a win. Bagel Time has a chance to take the fourth spot under three out of eight potential win-loss scenarios between these three teams. See below.

ll-scenarios

In Scenarios 2 and 7, if Air Jordy Loses and Bagel Time wins, Bagel takes the fourth spot no matter what. The tiebreaker for Lombardi Legends is total points and both Bagel and Unlockin have sizeable leads over Air Jordy. In Scenario 6, Unlockin will lose the 4th spot with wins by Air Jordy and Bagel, unless his total points for the week are 56.75 points more than Bagel Time’s total. This is not that far-fetched. The spread over 15 weeks of play averages 94.40 points. The high end of the spread is 151.30 taking place in week 3 (Bagel Time 235.55 – Wanted Dez or Alive 84.25), and the low end of the spread is 65.90 occurring last week in week 15 (Trouble Hunter 179.40 – Wanted Dez or Alive 113.50).

Next time you hear from me, we will have crowned our 5th Champion. And in honor of our 5th anniversary I am upping the ante on our league trophy. More to come. Finish strong.

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The Stage is (pretty much) Set

Here is a look at the preliminary standings for our playoffs starting next week…barring any miracles.

2016-playoffs-2

Trouble Hunter was a lock at #1 no matter what happened. Congratulations boo. Now’s when it really gets good.

Assuming the plane from Indianapolis lands in New Jersey, Air Jordy will secure the #2 seed. With a four-way tie at 8-5, Air Jordy gets the nod for overall tiebreaker by matchup. He beat each of the other three teams for a heads up record of 3-0.

RGIII’s Company earns the next matchup tiebreaker (3rd seed) for beating both Bagel Time and Tannehill for President for a heads up record of 2-1.

Late bloomer, Tannehill for President, is tied for the best record over the last seven games at 5-2 (tied with Trouble Hunter). He picks up the 4th seed for splitting his matchups with RGIII and Bagel finishing at 1-2 overall.

Bagel Time wraps up the tiebreaker with the 5th seed for not taking care of business when it counted. He lost to all three teams during the regular season, including losses by 0.05 and 1.40 points, finishing with a heads up record of 0-3. Inches man.

Unlockin Yo Schtuff and Schoolya’gain finish the regular season at 7-6, and the matchup tiebreaker goes to Wisconsin’s Unlockin (6 seed) for his win in Week 12 over the Twin City’s own Schoolya’gain (7 seed). Feels good to be on top of a Viking – I know what I’m talking about.

The final playoff spot goes to one of two teams in a head-to-head matchup in Week 13. It’s winner take all. Unless Frank Gore puts up a 34.60 stat line, Wanted Dez or Alive will squeak in at 6-7, tied with The Whiteshadow. The matchup tiebreaker would put WDOA in at #8 and a lock for the playoffs in his rookie season with the Lombardi Three.

That leaves up to two teams in the consolation bracket eligible for a cash payout this season (gotta get 8 wins). Keep playing no matter what. That cash payout and the #4 draft pick next year are still up for grabs.

Last but not least, all of this could be thrown in to complete upheaval if Brandon Marshall and T.Y. Hilton GO THE FUCK OFF tonight. I highly welcome that chaos. If they just match their best weeks at 25.40 and 33.10, respectively, Marshall and Hilton will put together just enough damage to spin Bagel Time into a 0.35 point loss meltdown and leave one Jon Bon junkie shot through the heart. Standby to standby…

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Every Point Counts

I’d like to be able to lay out the potential Win-Loss consequences for the eight (8) available playoff seeds, but with 12 of 14 teams only two games apart, the ‘if – then’ scenarios are very tough to estimate. There are a few broad likelihoods that you can anticipate. From the bottom up:

1. Lake Hickory Swallops is the only team already out of the playoffs. However, we must show our respect to the team that met, by far, the toughest schedule in the league this season. The Points Against LHS to date is 2,130.15. This is 188.85 points more than the next toughest schedule. Looking back at previous seasons, no other team faced this tough a schedule. Unprecedented. LHS met an average of 177.5 points per week in each of his matchups. It is damn near impossible to win against those numbers no matter how well you play. Sometimes, it just comes down to scheduling. Unfortunately, LHS caught each of his opponents this season on their best week.

To ensure everyone in the league that I am not blowing smoke up anyone’s ass, I want to further demonstrate my point by comparing The Swallops’ schedule with that of Air Jordy’s. I use Air Jordy because he faced the second easiest schedule this season with his Points Against at 1,788.90. Had their schedules been reversed, based on weekly points, LHS would be sitting in playoff contention at 6-6 and AJ would be at 3-9. I ran this analysis against a few other teams and the results for LHS were similar. Replaced with just about any other team’s schedule, LHS would be sitting with at least 5 wins.

This analysis does not sit well with me. This reinforces the realization that I am reminded of quite often; that most of our success in fantasy football is pure luck. Plain and simple. We are nothing but what time and circumstance has made us. Don’t let it get you down. And don’t let it give you false expectations.

2. “Must-win” is one of those sports adages that borders on overuse. But with 7 teams only a game apart, that cliché couldn’t ring more true. The five teams at 5-7 and the two teams at 6-6 absolutely must win. I would have thought the two 6-6 teams would have some outs if they lost, but unfortunately they both play lower ranked teams at 5-7, so they don’t have any power to ding one of the higher ranked teams and open some options above them.

3. The five teams at 7-5 are a lock for the playoffs if they win. There is a reasonable chance that if they lose, they could get bumped by either of the 6-6 teams that win. This could rearrange the playoff seeding quite dramatically. Remember, the tiebreaker for a parallel W-L record is matchup. E.g., if Tannehill for President finishes 8-5, and Unlockin Yo Schtuff finishes 8-5, T4P gets the higher seed because he beat UYS when they met in Week 11.

4. Trouble Hunter is a lock for the #1 seed no matter what happens. Nicely done.

Most importantly each and every team IS playing for something. There are still four weeks left in the season (one regular, three playoffs) and every team will be playing every week. Any of the bottom six finishers can win the Consolation playoffs and a guaranteed #4 draft pick next season. Also, based on the new payout structure, every team in the league, no matter how you finish in the rankings, is paid out at $3/win if their record is at or above .500. So, if you finish at 8-8 or above, you will get at least half of your dues back (well, almost half – $24). Also still up for grabs is the Regular Season 2nd Place Bonus. See the League Dues page for a recap on the new payout structure we are experimenting with this season.

I do have one more little morsel of encouragement. At the beginning of the season, post Week 2, I announced the formation of the Lombardi Legends league. The Lombardi Legends will coincide with the regular season and contest the top four teams from this season against each other. The top four teams will be determined by the Win-Loss records from the full 16-week season, regardless of final standings following the playoffs. Tiebreaker is total points. This is still wide open for half the teams in the league. Every win counts. And based on the current standings, there will likely be a tiebreaker at the end of the season. So every point counts too.

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Post Week 12 Admin

ertz
(courtesy of Bagel Time Productions, LLC)

A bench swap has been exercised. As predicted, Air Jordy utilized his bench swap to replace Cameron Meredith (3.90 points) with Donte Moncrief (18.50 points) in the Flex position. This swap will tentatively net Air Jordy an additional 14.60 points and the win. The bench swap log has been updated.

To date, Unlockin Yo Schtuff is the only team left with a bench swap. In fact he has two. The last week to utilize one of those bench swaps is this week, the final week of the regular season. And, quite poetically, Unlockin is facing the 2016 Regular Season Champion, Trouble Hunter.

That’s right; the high-speed, bagel-lovin’ rookie from Ashburn rolled through the first 12 weeks in impressive fashion and is locked in as the Regular Season Champion and the #1 seed in the playoffs. Trouble Hunter is also likely to earn the True Coach Ranking barring outright disaster. You know, disaster like the last two seasons where the regular season champ and overall #1 seed lost it all in the first round of the playoffs, both years, and went on to finish 8th and 7th, respectively. No pressure boo.

———-

The DRAFT page on TheLombardiThree.com had been updated to the DRAFT CENTER. A log has been added to track leveraged draft picks for successive seasons. That said, this is the last week to make your move and put together any final trade deals.

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Gettin’ Swappy in Here

Bagel Time: Looking forward to you using a Bench Swap to beat RGIII.

Air Jordy: Well. Looking forward to Zach Ertz putting up a donut would have been nicer.

Air Jordy: Fucking Jordan Reed. SMH.

RGIII’s Company’s dearest fans hit the airwaves Sunday night to discuss the fate of the reigning two-time champ’s matchup in Week 12 against Air Jordy. Utilizing his available Bench Swap, AJ could finish the week at 158.70, replacing Cameron Meredith in the Flex position with Donte Moncrief (144.10 – 3.90 + 18.50 = 158.70). This calculus puts the magic number for RGIII’s lone remaining point-getter, Flex TE Zach Ertz, at 18.95 in order for RGIII’s Company to lock in the win. This output would be a season high for Ertz, but lightning already struck once for RGIII’s Co. in Week 12.

RGIII’s premier TE, Jordan Reed, left the Redskins-Cowboys game shortly after the 1st quarter with a separated shoulder joint after only 2 receptions for 15 total yards (3.50 points). Riding a 3-game losing streak, this was the break Air Jordy needed. Freshly cortizoned, Reed would resurface at the end of the 3rd quarter to catch a 33-yard bomb from Cousins, followed by a 5-yard touchdown catch. Certainly dealing with the weight of the current Skins win-streak, Reed was not going to cut bait on a key division matchup against their most hated rival. He would go on to grab 6 more passes for 42 total yards and another touchdown to incinerate his first-half statline and put the pressure back on his Airness. Reed finished with 10 receptions for 95 yards and 2 TDs for 31.50 points. *There is 1 catch for 5 yards (1.50 points) that is unaccounted for in the play-by-play log which may come in as a stat correction later in the week, giving Air Jordy a little more breathing room.

Reed has dealt with injury in some form or another for most of his career and has yet to put together a full 16-week regular season. He is likely to miss a game or two going forward due to this injury, but as a beltway-local and a good steward of hometown sports, it has been awesome to watch the Redskins of late, especially a performance like this from Reed against a really good Super Bowl contender like Dallas.

Certainly lightning won’t strike twice for RGIII’s Tight Ends in Week 12 but the way this season has gone thus far anything can happen.

(Except to Trouble Hunter. Apparently nothing bad is going to happen to Trouble Hunter. Seriously, can we get one injury? Even if it’s the Kicker. Just one. We just want to feel something.)

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The Long Game

The first trade for a future draft pick has been accepted. The trade between Wanted Dez or Alive and Air Jordy includes next year’s 3rd Round Draft Pick (w/ the option). Chris Thompson was additional to this trade in order for WDOA to retain an active RB. Additionally, a trade cannot be proposed without offering to trade away at least one player.

The offer for Bell included a 3rd Round draft pick, with the option, or a 4th Round draft pick straight up. WDOA chose the latter.

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Hao Jiu Mei Jian

Yes, this is a TL3 blog post. Rare sighting this season, I know. Truth is, your league biographer has been completely consumed with a new gig and dropped anchor during the busiest time of the year. That combined with a lot of personal travel kept yours truly off the laptop. To top it off, there has been an enormous amount of turmoil in the league this year related to injuries and the impact thereof, leaving us languishing and wearied in winds of uncertainty. The league standings reeling to and fro like grain fields swaying in the breeze; so heavy upon them the disappointment of their ever-changing rosters. An injury plagued season does not bode well for a 14-team league – something that was insufficiently considered with the re-expansion this season.

Having had time on my side, I’m not sure the weekly commentary would have held much weight or importance to it. The only permanence in the league has come from one team, Trouble Hunter. This fantasy rookie has thoroughly dominated this season and held an unrelenting half nelson on lady luck like no other team in league history. To date, TH has scored an average of 186 points per week, has players ranked in the top 7 at every position, with the exception of Kicker, and leads 3 out of 4 coaching metrics. In unprecedented fashion, TH still maintains 12 of 16 draft picks including 11 of the top 12 picks as healthy starters. No other team in the league can boast this level of good fortune. The chart below measures your wins against the reverberation of your draft picks.

week-10-players-remaining

Of note, reigning two-time regular season champion, Air Jordy, has had their roster completely decimated this season, retaining only 4 of the original 16 players drafted. Fortunately for AJ, they have faced the least amount of competition in the league to date and narrowly escaped with six wins, including an overturned win by 0.05 points (lowest in league history) in Week 3 after late stat corrections.

With a 5-way tie for second place and more than half the league only a game apart, playoff spots are still up for grabs for every team in the league. Although, teams looking to play the long game may possibly start thinking about next season. I want to remind you that this season we officially implemented the ability to utilize future draft picks as acquisition value. To support this type transaction I offer the following optional supplement to The Lombardi Three Constitution.

16.1.4 – The Big Short: Bearish traders may include an option as value to their trade deals. The option reduces the draft pick by one (1) round for each week (full game) the player acquired is injured and does not play, for a maximum of five (5) rounds. Suspension, partial games played, or poor performance are not valid against the option. E.g., Player A is traded for a 3rd round draft pick including the option. If the player misses 2 weeks due to injury, the draft pick drops to the 5th round. If the player misses the rest of the season the draft pick drops a maximum of five (5) rounds to the 8th round. This supplement is optional and must be specifically included in the trade deal.

Another trade issue arose this season that officially needs to be addressed. Due to current systematic restrictions on the NFL.com platform, the trade execution window of one (1) day is regularly stalled for an additional day due to what time of day the trade is officially accepted. For example, if a trade is accepted on Wednesday morning, the 1-day trade window does not officially start until the beginning of the next full day, Thursday, pushing the application of the trade until Friday morning. This makes it especially difficult to complete a trade for players competing on Thursday night games. The following amendment to The Lombardi Three Constitution supports this and potentially related scenarios, allowing for the teams involved to have their trade expedited.

16.2 – Hammer Time: Upon request, the League Manager has the ability to cut the red tape and expedite any accepted trade that has passed a 24-hour rejection window. The request must come from both teams involved. Manual adjustment to the team lineups will be made once the trade takes effect.

Looking ahead, we are facing the potential for playoff seeds being determined by tiebreaker, so I’m looking forward to covering the parade of make-or-break scenarios. I’ve been reading up on some new fantasy platforms including some unfranchised, private, pay-to-play platforms. Without doubt, we will never play another season on NFL.com. Additionally, five years of action, and the overall physical nature of the NFL, have confirmed that we are better with a 12-team lineup. How we incorporate reductions are TBD at a much later date. With that in mind, stop thinking, let things happen, and be the ball.

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TATONKA

zach-brown-9-29-story
North Carolina Tar Heel Zach Brown hunts for trouble tonight.
Buffalo 17, Seattle 0

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TL3 meet Context

 

PARTY POOPER

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Ball Gazer Results

Ball Gazer Results for 2016 have been posted to the Bench Swaps page. Each of the three weeks had one team missing the cut by a single game, with a notable Week 1 by RGIII’s Company at 13-3. Let’s not lose sight though of how much he sucked thereafter. Especially impressive, Schoolya’gain led the bunch with an average of double-digit (+10) successful picks each week. Take the value of that and add $3, and she can get herself a nice bowl of soup. The Whiteshadow couldn’t manage to break the .500 mark in the first two outings, so he must have wiped his ass with week three’s form. Tannehill for President and Bagel Time also stunk it up, but they keep expectations low to stay off of anyone’s lodestar. Don’t worry boys, no one noticed.

In summary, there are no winners this season. Till next year.

A copy of the results has been provided below with accompanying legend.

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legend