As promised, here’s a historical look at the Strength of Schedule differential across each of our Regular Seasons. This data does not include the playoffs.
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Author: League Commissioner
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Strength of Schedule
Schoolya’gain flipped the district in Week 10 and unseated that gerrymandering, bench-swappin’ Bagel Time* in order take back the house. And she did it legit, with a Strength of Schedule differential right down the center of the spectrum. She was one of only two teams to survive an upset this week and has averaged 167 points per game over her current, league-leading 5-game win streak.
I have attempted to measure our strength of schedule through Week 10 by comparing each team’s current win percentage to their win percentage if they played every other team in the league each week. This is a very simple method for measuring how hard, or unlucky, your schedule has been and vice versa. I have charted these results below.
I caveat the following analysis not to pick on any teams in particular, but to provide defined examples of how the calculations are derived and demonstrate the unforgiving nature of playing this game from year to year. No matter what you do, sometimes the odds are just stacked against you. Don’t take it personal.
Looking at the EASY (or lucky (however you wish to look at it)) end of the spectrum, Christian’s Brothers, IJamAllDay, Bagel Time, and Trouble Hunter have had the most fortunate matchups to date, respectively.
- Christian’s Brothers has enjoyed a +19.2% advantage thus far, having been fortunate enough to compete against one of only a few teams who he could have beaten in multiple weeks. In Week 2, ten of the other thirteen teams in the league would have bested Christian Brother’s had they faced him, yet he was fortunate enough to have faced one of the only three teams he could have beaten. This happened again in Week 4 when the odds were even slimmer. Eleven teams in the league would have outscored CB, but again, he faced one of the two teams that couldn’t.
- IJamAllDay has been able to make the most of a +16.2% advantage, by scoring the least amount of points in the league but still managing a 5-5 record and a potential playoff position in the current standings. Looking at the same weekly scenarios, IJAD had the same luck in Week 6, as he squared off against one of only three teams he could have beaten that week.
- Bagel Time’s* advantage of 15.4% is negatively inflated by the use of the Bench Swap. Had he taken a loss that week he would be closer to the spectrum at 5.4%. However, he’s not off the hook. In Week 2 BT* had the luxury of playing one of only two teams he could have beaten that week, earning a win after a 124-point effort. Five other teams lost that week and they scored 140 points or more.
- Ditto Trouble Hunter in Weeks 2 and 8, facing one of the only two teams with a lower score in both matchups. Unfortunately for TH, she hasn’t been able to benefit as much from this luck as she has experienced both ends of the spectrum having lost in Week 9 to one of only four teams who could have beaten her.
Looking at the HARD (or unlucky) end of the spectrum, Air Jordy, Wanted Dez or Alive, Lake Hickory Swallops, K-Nasty and White Wes Welkers have had the most unfortunate matchups to date, respectively.
- Air Jordy has faced an -18.5% disadvantage thus far. Same story, different results. This started in Week 2 after putting up 170 points (170 points has only been eclipsed 22 times over our 140 scores this season) and losing to one of the only 2 teams with higher outputs. This happened again in Week 10 facing one of only 4 teams with the chops needed to win.
- A somewhat different scenario has plagued both Wanted Dez or Alive (-17.7% disadvantage) and Lake Hickory Swallops (-14.6% disadvantage) all season. Other than one or two duds, they have both been putting up consistent middle of the road numbers, but continually end up with the short straw when facing the one half of the league that could challenge them. For these guys it’s either been bad luck, or no luck at all.
- K-Nasty (-11.5% disadvantage) put up great numbers in Weeks 6 and 7, but faced one of the only four teams to beat him in Week 6, and a bottom half matchup in Week 7 driving his strength of schedule differential down. Another middle of the road guy that can’t catch a break.
- In Weeks 5 and 7, White Wes Welkers (-11.5% disadvantage) would have taken down any one of eight and nine matchups, respectively. These two wins would have been the difference between a 10th place and a 4th place standing. To add insult to injury, these losses were the meat of his league-leading, 5-game losing streak covering Weeks 3 through 7.
With three weeks left in the regular season, maybe these odds will start to balance themselves out as we compete against the remaining teams in the league we haven’t faced yet. A full historical Strength of Schedule will be performed and analyzed against the final standings for each season. Though, the more I dig in to the random, uncontrollable nature of fantasy football, the more I question its value. I fear where this will take me.
Of final note, Week 11 is traditionally our lowest scoring week of the season on average and we are trending that direction. Chart below explains everything.
We have new single-game leaders at QB, TE and LB. All of our top performances came out of Weeks 6 through 8, with the exception of RB, which still hasn’t been broken since Week 1.
Single Game League Leaders (through Week 10)
QB – Russel Wilson (46.60 points in Week 8) – Wanted Dez or Alive
RB – Kareem Hunt (44.60 points in Week 1) – Air Jordy
WR – Amari Cooper (44.00 points in Week 7) – Trouble Hunter
TE – Jack Doyle (30.10 points in Week 8) – White Wes Welkers
K – Ryan Succop (21.50 points in Week 6) – IJamAllDay
DEF – Baltimore Ravens (61.30 points in Week 6) – Reason to Kerrigan
LB – C. J. Mosley (20.30 points in Week 8) – Schoolya’gain
SEASON HIGH SCORE – Wanted Dez or Alive (212.45 points in Week 3)
SEASON WIN STREAK – Schoolya’gain (+5 Weeks 6-10)
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Post Week 7 Quickie
Bagel Time* has been blowing up my phone, desperate to gab about the state of the union through Week 7 and, you know, gloat a bit. Well…Bagel Time* is #1; Bagel Time* has scored the third most points in the league (while subsequently facing the second least points in the league); and Bagel Time* has posted the highest single-game Tight End and Linebacker performances to date. Bagel Time* is also getting an asterisk next to his name for the rest of the season.
*Team used a Bench Swap – results inflated.
We’re past Hump Day on the regular season. Week 7 was the second highest scoring week of the year, just 26.80 points shy of Week 3’s output. During the last three weeks, since our last update, five new single-game individual performance records were set, including the 61.30-point symphony by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 6. This is the highest defensive output in League History, including the earlier years when we awarded bonuses for huge plays. And they put up another 50 last night. Whoever is playing Reason to Kerrigan in Week 10, when the Ravens are on BYE, is one lucky S.O.B.
The state of the union is still in flux with the top and bottom halves of the league only a single game separated. Most of us are scraping by week to week, trying to grab whatever backup may be poised for a decent fill-in role that week, usually due to injury of another sub-standard teammate, in hopes that the proverbial ‘breakout’ status will accompany his inflated projection. Hope is fantasy football’s drug of choice, and we are all addicted to it.
Speaking of fantasy football addicts, I am particularly concerned with the health of White Wes Welkers. Having scraped together the 7th most points in the league, WWW has somehow dropped the last five matchups. Averaging 170 points per over the first two weeks, WWW has dropped to 135 per over the last five. May be time to reboot buddy. Why don’t you go ahead and move back east and we’ll work on this together.
My only other concern is with Wanted Dez or Alive. This A+ drafted squad holds the single-game high-score for the league at 212.45 in Week 3, but has averaged only 127.4 points per over the other six weeks. I think I know what’s going on here…according to a recent story in GQ, Trump secretly backed a grassroots campaign in 2014 to turn the Buffalo Bills and the people of Buffalo against Bon Jovi, because (big surprise) Trump lied and said that if Bon Jovi bought the team, he was going to move the Bills to Toronto. Interesting read. Stay focused buddy. You still got 200+ in you.
Alright TL3 – quick post. Just making sure the lights are still on.
-The Commish
Single Game League Leaders (through Week 7)
QB – Tom Brady (46.50 points in Week 3) – Unlockin’ Yo Schtuff
RB – Kareem Hunt (44.60 points in Week 1) – Air Jordy
WR – Amari Cooper (44.00 points in Week 7) – Trouble Hunter
TE – Jordan Reed (26.40 points in Week 7) – Bagel Time*
K – Ryan Succop (21.50 points in Week 6) – IJamAllDay
DEF – Baltimore Ravens (61.30 points in Week 6) – Reason to Kerrigan
LB – Telvin Smith (19.80 points in Week 5) – Bagel Time*
HIGH SCORE – Wanted Dez or Alive (212.45 points in Week 3)
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POSTLIMINARY WEEK 4
We are officially a quarter of the way through the season and I have no earthly idea how any team in this league, or any NFL team for that matter, is going to end up this year. I got nothing. The NFL and the state of Texas have no clue what to do with Ezekiel Elliott, the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills have now beaten the Broncos and Falcons in back-to-back weeks, and Kirk Cousins is channeling his inner RG3 as he’s led the Redskins in rushing yards in three of four games this season. This all just feels out of sorts. I think the results of the Ball Gazer submissions each week were evidence of that. Week 3 was so bad I didn’t even post the results (as a group we were borderline .500). Trouble Hunter flirted with destiny in Week 2 (13-3), which would have ordinarily earned her a Bench Swap in any other season, but her domestic partner already deprived her of that luxury.
Usually there are indicators at this point in the season of some league playoff contenders, dynamic lineups, strong defenses, and deep benches. Or worse yet, obvious duds, poor drafting, someone you hate, domestic violence, broken families, and even a DUI or two. We got none of that. Shit, the teams with the two worst report cards after the draft have the most points in the league to date.
The turmoil continued in Week 4 as five out of the top seven squads lost and five out of the bottom seven won. The battle of the 0-3s drew to a close with IJamAllDay victorious, leaving Reason to Kerrigan the only squad left without a W. But RTK’s 0-4 record has a huge asterisk next to it, being the victim of a bench swap in Week 2. RTK has also faced the toughest competition opposing the second most ‘Points Against’ to date. Christian’s Brothers is the only undefeated team left, but this squad has also been the beneficiary of the weakest competition in the league through the first four weeks, having faced the least amount of ‘Points Against’ in the league by 166 points. That’s just ridiculous. That’s kinda like getting spotted 41.5 points each week before the game even starts. No one should be concerned though, as this won’t last. CB is 22-25 over his career.
Circling back on the ‘Balls’ and ‘Swaps’ discussion, we need to take care of a little admin. The unplanned BYE in Week 1 for the Bucs and Dolphins unveiled a void in our ruleset. You don’t know you need a rule for something, until you need a rule for something, and you know what that means. I have modified the language in our Constitution to address this issue should it arise again. If any NFL games are cancelled or postponed during Week 1, the win requirement is set to 85% correct picks, assuming picks are submitted for each game being played. If Amendment 13.5.1 – Shrinking Balls takes effect and any NFL games are cancelled or postponed during Week 2, the win requirement is set to 78% correct picks, and if any NFL games are cancelled or postponed during Week 3, the win requirement is further set to 71% correct picks, again, assuming picks are submitted for each game being played. This will cover us in the event something like this comes up again.
BYE weeks come in to play in Week 5. The Falcons, Broncos, Saints, and Redskins are off.
-The Commish
Single Game League Leaders
QB – Tom Brady (46.50 points in Week 3) – Unlockin’ Yo Schtuff
RB – Kareem Hunt (44.60 points in Week 1) – Air Jordy
WR – Stefon Diggs (37.30 points in Week 3) – IJamAllDay
TE – Jason Witten (25.70 points in Week 2) – Schoolya’gain
K – Matt Prater & Stephen Hauschka (19.00 points in Week 3) – Wanted Dez or Alive & Trouble Hunter
DEF – Jacksonville (49.70 points in Week 1) – Schoolya’gain
LB – Bobby Wagner (16.60 points in Week 4) – Reason to Kerrigan
HIGH SCORE – Wanted Dez or Alive (212.45 points in Week 3)
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Week 2 Gazers
Nada.
Highlights:
- No one picked the Colts, Saints, Browns, or 49ers
- IJamAllDay was the only team to correctly pick the Dolphins (even Tannehill for President went with the Chargers)
- K-Nasty was the only team to correctly pick the Texans
- Unlockin’ Yo Schtuff was the only team that thought the Bills would win
- Packer Elite Unlockin’ Yo Schtuff and Lake Hickory Swallops picked their boys to lose (calling that nonsense out)
Results after Sunday games:
12-3
IJamAllDay
Trouble Hunter
11-4
Unlockin’ Yo Schtuff
White Wes Welkers
10-5
Air Jordy
Christian’s Brothers
Lake Hickory Swallops
9-6
Tannehill for President
8-7
K-Nasty
0-1
Reason to Kerrigan
Schoolya’gain
Wanted Dez or Alive
This is your only reminder to submit your Week 3 picks prior to the start of each game. This is your last chance to earn a Bench Swap this season. Best of luck.
-The Commish
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Younghoe Koo
Bagel Time fucked us and locked us in to the nearly impossible. Per Amendment 13.5.2 of the Lombardi Three Constitution, the ‘Buddy Fucker’ rule has been implemented and the requirements for earning a Bench Swap in Week’s 2 and 3 are fixed at 14 out of 16 picks. Bagel Time has earned a Bench Swap which is available for use at the start of Week 2. Bagel faces ‘Dem 757 Boys’ and Redskin blood brothers Reason to Kerrigan in Week 2 and IJamAllDay in Week 3. IJamAllDay also being a fellow Ol’ Dirty alum. Just sayin’ Bagel, we take care of our own.
We can take some satisfaction in the fact that Bagel Time did not stay up late to watch the 4th QTR excitement and relish in the closing seconds of the game culminating in a blocked field goal of LA’s South Korean Kicker, Younghoe Koo, to tie the game. [I know because I would’ve received a text at 1am gloating about it.] Koo, was one of the best place kickers in college football last season, making 19 of 20 field goal attempts (missing only a 54-yarder) to be named a finalist for the Lou Groza Award as the best place kicker in college football.
Nice work Bagel. GFY
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It’s Bagel Time
Bagel Time is the only team still alive this morning with the chance to earn a free Bench Swap. He’s sitting at 11-2 and needs both the Vikings and Broncos to win tonight. Per Amendment 13.5.2 of the Lombardi Three Constitution, the ‘Buddy Fucker’ rule could be implemented should he pull off both wins. This would lock the requirements of our Ball Gazer picks at 14 out of 16 for the remaining two weeks. If either team loses, Bagel Time does not earn a Bench Swap and the requirement drops to 13 out of 16 in Week 2.
The rest of us were nixed by the first few beers on Sunday. Odds were against all of us after the Pats got torched, quite enjoyably, by a rookie running back named Kareem Hunt. Perhaps the Pats should have focused a little more on their run defense and less on trolling the landscape during pre-game with the “ATL 28 NE 3 2:12 3RD QTR” Super Bowl LI comeback score plastered all over the stadium. Ironically the Chiefs go on a 28-3 run and thump the Pats at home. That shit is just too spicy not to mention.
Week 1 Highlights include:
- Not a one of us picked the Chiefs to win. (0-12)
- The only unanimous correct picks were the Bears and Browns to lose.
- Unlockin Yo Schtuff was the only team to pick the 49ers to win. (WTF)
- Christian’s Brothers was the only team to pick the Jets to win. (WTF)
- Trouble Hunter was the only team to pick the Seahawks over the Packers at Lambeau. (SMH)
- Bagel Time and Trouble Hunter (Week 1 leaders) were the only ones to correctly pick the Jags to win.
- Wanted Dez or Alive and Whitey Ford’s Team were no shows.
Kinda looking forward to Adrian Peterson torching the Vikings tonight…
The Commish
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110 DAYS
As much as I wish this blog more frequently probed the goings-on of the Cryptocurrency Singularity, or ponied up frolicsome Senior Moments, or knocked around belvederes on the impending Psychic Crystal Drug Apocalypse (we all wear Converse), this is about fantasy football; and more importantly, The Lombardi Three.
From this Thursday to Christmas Day, over the next 110 days, I encourage each of you to abort any vacation plans you had, cancel your kid’s birthday party, torpedo that two-week bag-juice cleanse the misses wants to do together (that shit sounds horrifying), postpone your dissertation work on Hyperbolic Discounting (a terrible subject about why you make terrible life choices), abrogate any work commitments, personal commitments, play dates, double dates, date nights, movie nights, fight nights, tickle fights, and pillow bites, and focus on what’s important – the Lombardi Three trophy. On this day in history, look at what so many others have accomplished:
0070 – Roman emperor Titus occupies and plunders Jerusalem
1228 – Roman emperor Frederick lands in Israel, restores Jerusalem (aka Sixth Crusade)
1652 – 15,000 Han farmers go full militia on the Dutch and kick their asses out of Taiwan
1911 – French poet Apollinaire arrested for stealing the Mona Lisa from the Louvre (baller move)
1927 – TV is invented; let me repeat – TV is invented today
1945 – Japanese surrender Wake Island to U.S. Marines (ooh rah!)
1997 – Lockheed Martin launches Maiden flight of the F-22 Raptor
2017 – Dawning of Sixth Crusade of the Lombardi Three
This is YOUR year. This is YOURS for the taking. Yeah YOU. I smell a champion in you like a fart in a car.
By the way, Week 1 Ball Gazer forms are due by kickoff of tonight’s game. Due to the postponement of the Tampa Bay – Miami game, the resulting threshold is 13 out of 15 picks. Technically this is 0.83% easier than getting 14 out of 16 picks. Thanks Irma!
Here’s one more little gift for you from our darling league radical, Schoolya’gain. This is a great piece on Michael Bennett, older brother of Green Bay Packer TE, Martellus Bennett.
SEAHAWKS’ MICHAEL BENNETT IS AN ACTIVIST DISGUISED AS A FOOTBALL PLAYER
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DRAFT HANGOUT
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Pre-Draft Subliminal Messaging
As a result of last season’s trade for Le’Veon Bell, I have modified the Round 3 Draft Order. Yahoo has allowed me to transfer Air Jordy’s 3rd Round pick to Wanted Dez or Alive, giving him two picks in Round 3. See screenshot below.
I’ve conducted multiple live mock Yahoo drafts on both the laptop and the iPhone. They worked like a charm. For any teams new to Yahoo, please try one this weekend on whatever device you plan to use for the draft. It’s great practice for Sunday and you can get a good idea of who you will end up with in the first few rounds.
Remember to sign on early.
Jiggle your router connection. Make sure that shit aint loose.
Organize your notes. Or, just wing it. I think you’ll be fine.
Refill your cocktail.
Draft is Noon (12pm) eastern.
Yahoo, be good to us please….
The Lombardi Three 