Tag: Air Jordy

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2018 1st Overall Draft Pick

A multi-layered, combination offline and online random generated selection has been performed under the eye of two veteran franchises. Every team not already guaranteed a spot in the draft was included in the selection process. The winner of the 2018 1st Overall Draft Pick is…

 

Amendola Sent Me

…I mean, Gronk Out With Your Honk Out

……I mean, Mr. Gisele Bundchen

………I mean, The Brady Bundchen

congrats go out to

WHITE WES WELKERS

don’t fuck it up

 

The rest of the order shifts up. Yeah, you still last Bagel.

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Pay Day

The League Dues page has been updated to reflect cash winnings. All winnings have been distributed as of this post. Final league standings, including the NIT results, are outlined below.

I sincerely want to recognize the Lake Hickory Swallops for their season. And not just the NIT blowout and pulling off the cash win. This is a team that scored the third most points in the league, and would have smoked every single one of us in the playoffs. Had he not been up against one of the toughest schedules in the league this year, and pulled off just one or two more wins during the regular season, he would have made the playoffs and dominated all three games. During Weeks 14, 15, and 16, LHS put up 193, 156, and 214, respectively. None of us would have survived that onslaught. Respect.

I will likely forego the usual “League Trophies” post as there is no way to create custom trophies on Yahoo.com. Although, I do recommend you check out the Record Book page on our league site which breaks down the various accolades, points, stats, medals, and what-nots of the season. I really like the Team Points page that outlines the ‘Points From Draft Players’ and the ‘Points From Post-Draft Acquisitions’. This is the data that I wish I had the time to nerd-out on and track closer, as these are the type metrics that we should be engaging.

2017 Single Game League Leaders
QB – Alex Smith (49.30 points in Week 13) – Air Jordy
RB – Todd Gurley II (49.60 points in Week 16) – Lake Hickory Swallops
WR – Julio Jones (50.80 points in Week 12) – Whitey Ford’s Team
TE – Jack Doyle (30.10 points in Week 8) – White Wes Welkers
K – Robbie Gould (24.00 points in Week 15) – Air Jordy
DEF – Baltimore Ravens (61.30 points in Week 6) – Reason to Kerrigan
LB – C. J. Mosley (20.30 points in Week 8) – Schoolya’gain

SEASON HIGH SCORE – Air Jordy (224.40 points in Week 15)
SEASON WIN STREAK –Christian’s Brothers (+7 Weeks 9-15)

Thanks again for your patience with the new league platform on Yahoo and the offline NIT playoff tracking. Stay tuned for one last sunset post on this year’s league champion and the future of The Lombardi Three…

-The Commish

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End of Regular Season 2017

At the conclusion of the Regular Season, we have each played each other once. I have updated our Strength of Schedule and see no real surprises here – same narrative, different weeks. I was hoping to see some of it balance out, but we have deviated even further from the mean. A team’s advantage of +23.7% far exceeds any we have seen throughout our league history. Same goes for a disadvantage of -19.8%. My conclusion after this year’s results, combined with the impoverished health of the NFL and the size of our rosters, is that we can only be competitive as a 10-team league, statistically speaking. Otherwise it’s just random luck.

A potential alternative is to disregard regular season standings and utilize aggregate rankings to measure a team’s performance and determine playoff seeding. Clear evidence already exists that supports this option as we have never had a #1 or #2 seed win the playoffs. We are obviously not structuring this right.

Maybe this year will be different. Christian’s Brothers has hit his stride and is averaging 184.5 points per week over his current 5-game win streak. Maybe this year will be more of the same. Last year’s Regular Season champ, Trouble Hunter, averaged 181.2 over her regular season finale, but came up short in the playoffs and finished 5th on the season. Same fall from grace met Air Jordy in the 2015 and 2014 seasons where he averaged 203.9 and 190.3 per week, respectively, and lost in the first round of each playoff. Lady Luck breaks up with all of us eventually. She clearly had commitment issues.

Regular Season Awards
Regular Season Champion – Christian’s Brothers (20% Bonus)
Regular Season 2nd Place – Bagel Time* (5% Bonus)
Regular Season True Coach Ranking – Schoolya’gain (5% Bonus)

Regular Season True Coach Rankings
The Regular Season True Coach ranking is a carryover from our time on NFL.com. This ranking is tabulated throughout the season and measures your performance across three (3) categories – your point differential* in fantasy points between your starting and ideal lineup each week; how you breakdown weekly if you played all teams each week; and your overall W/L standing. *For our time on Yahoo.com, I replaced point differential with Total Points. It ends up being the same results and the math is much easier. Schoolya’gain finished 1st, 2nd, and 5th, respectively.

Schoolya’gain
Christian’s Brothers
Air Jordy
UnLockin’ Yo Schtuff
Bagel Time*
White Wes Welkers
Trouble Hunter
Lake Hickory Swallops
Whitey Ford’s Team
K-Nasty
Reason to Kerrigan
Tannehill for President
Wanted Dez or Alive
IJamAllDay

Guaranteed to Cash on Wins
Christian’s Brothers
Bagel Time*
Trouble Hunter
UnLockin’ Yo Schtuff

Chance to Cash on Wins (# of Playoff Wins Required)
Schoolya’gain (1)
Whitey Ford’s Team (1)
Air Jordy (2)
White Wes Welkers (2)
Reason to Kerrigan (2)

Only one of the following teams can cash out, and they need to win the Consolation Bracket Playoffs to do so. This will guarantee half their dues back and the #4 pick in next year’s draft. Of course, Wanted Dez or Alive could #RunTheTable and kill all of their chances to cash.

Lake Hickory Swallops (3)
K-Nasty (3)
Tannehill for President (3)
IJamAllDay (3)

Single Game League Leaders (through Week 13)
QB – Alex Smith (49.30 points in Week 13) – Air Jordy
RB – Kareem Hunt (44.60 points in Week 1) – Air Jordy
WR – Julio Jones (50.80 points in Week 12) – Whitey Ford’s Team
TE – Jack Doyle (30.10 points in Week 8) – White Wes Welkers
K – Ryan Succop (21.50 points in Week 6) – IJamAllDay
DEF – Baltimore Ravens (61.30 points in Week 6) – Reason to Kerrigan
LB – C. J. Mosley (20.30 points in Week 8) – Schoolya’gain

SEASON HIGH SCORE – Whitey Ford’s Team (219.5 points in Week 12)
SEASON WIN STREAK – Schoolya’gain (+5 Weeks 6-10) and Christian’s Brothers (+5 Weeks 9-13)

 

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Strength of Schedule

Schoolya’gain flipped the district in Week 10 and unseated that gerrymandering, bench-swappin’ Bagel Time* in order take back the house. And she did it legit, with a Strength of Schedule differential right down the center of the spectrum. She was one of only two teams to survive an upset this week and has averaged 167 points per game over her current, league-leading 5-game win streak.

I have attempted to measure our strength of schedule through Week 10 by comparing each team’s current win percentage to their win percentage if they played every other team in the league each week. This is a very simple method for measuring how hard, or unlucky, your schedule has been and vice versa. I have charted these results below.

I caveat the following analysis not to pick on any teams in particular, but to provide defined examples of how the calculations are derived and demonstrate the unforgiving nature of playing this game from year to year. No matter what you do, sometimes the odds are just stacked against you. Don’t take it personal.

Looking at the EASY (or lucky (however you wish to look at it)) end of the spectrum, Christian’s Brothers, IJamAllDay, Bagel Time, and Trouble Hunter have had the most fortunate matchups to date, respectively.

  • Christian’s Brothers has enjoyed a +19.2% advantage thus far, having been fortunate enough to compete against one of only a few teams who he could have beaten in multiple weeks. In Week 2, ten of the other thirteen teams in the league would have bested Christian Brother’s had they faced him, yet he was fortunate enough to have faced one of the only three teams he could have beaten. This happened again in Week 4 when the odds were even slimmer. Eleven teams in the league would have outscored CB, but again, he faced one of the two teams that couldn’t.
  • IJamAllDay has been able to make the most of a +16.2% advantage, by scoring the least amount of points in the league but still managing a 5-5 record and a potential playoff position in the current standings. Looking at the same weekly scenarios, IJAD had the same luck in Week 6, as he squared off against one of only three teams he could have beaten that week.
  • Bagel Time’s* advantage of 15.4% is negatively inflated by the use of the Bench Swap. Had he taken a loss that week he would be closer to the spectrum at 5.4%. However, he’s not off the hook. In Week 2 BT* had the luxury of playing one of only two teams he could have beaten that week, earning a win after a 124-point effort. Five other teams lost that week and they scored 140 points or more.
  • Ditto Trouble Hunter in Weeks 2 and 8, facing one of the only two teams with a lower score in both matchups. Unfortunately for TH, she hasn’t been able to benefit as much from this luck as she has experienced both ends of the spectrum having lost in Week 9 to one of only four teams who could have beaten her.

Looking at the HARD (or unlucky) end of the spectrum, Air Jordy, Wanted Dez or Alive, Lake Hickory Swallops, K-Nasty and White Wes Welkers have had the most unfortunate matchups to date, respectively.

  • Air Jordy has faced an -18.5% disadvantage thus far. Same story, different results. This started in Week 2 after putting up 170 points (170 points has only been eclipsed 22 times over our 140 scores this season) and losing to one of the only 2 teams with higher outputs. This happened again in Week 10 facing one of only 4 teams with the chops needed to win.
  • A somewhat different scenario has plagued both Wanted Dez or Alive (-17.7% disadvantage) and Lake Hickory Swallops (-14.6% disadvantage) all season. Other than one or two duds, they have both been putting up consistent middle of the road numbers, but continually end up with the short straw when facing the one half of the league that could challenge them. For these guys it’s either been bad luck, or no luck at all.
  • K-Nasty (-11.5% disadvantage) put up great numbers in Weeks 6 and 7, but faced one of the only four teams to beat him in Week 6, and a bottom half matchup in Week 7 driving his strength of schedule differential down. Another middle of the road guy that can’t catch a break.
  • In Weeks 5 and 7, White Wes Welkers (-11.5% disadvantage) would have taken down any one of eight and nine matchups, respectively. These two wins would have been the difference between a 10th place and a 4th place standing. To add insult to injury, these losses were the meat of his league-leading, 5-game losing streak covering Weeks 3 through 7.

With three weeks left in the regular season, maybe these odds will start to balance themselves out as we compete against the remaining teams in the league we haven’t faced yet. A full historical Strength of Schedule will be performed and analyzed against the final standings for each season. Though, the more I dig in to the random, uncontrollable nature of fantasy football, the more I question its value. I fear where this will take me.

Of final note, Week 11 is traditionally our lowest scoring week of the season on average and we are trending that direction. Chart below explains everything.

We have new single-game leaders at QB, TE and LB. All of our top performances came out of Weeks 6 through 8, with the exception of RB, which still hasn’t been broken since Week 1.

Single Game League Leaders (through Week 10)
QB – Russel Wilson (46.60 points in Week 8) – Wanted Dez or Alive
RB – Kareem Hunt (44.60 points in Week 1) – Air Jordy
WR – Amari Cooper (44.00 points in Week 7) – Trouble Hunter
TE – Jack Doyle (30.10 points in Week 8) – White Wes Welkers
K – Ryan Succop (21.50 points in Week 6) – IJamAllDay
DEF – Baltimore Ravens (61.30 points in Week 6) – Reason to Kerrigan
LB – C. J. Mosley (20.30 points in Week 8) – Schoolya’gain

SEASON HIGH SCORE – Wanted Dez or Alive (212.45 points in Week 3)
SEASON WIN STREAK – Schoolya’gain (+5 Weeks 6-10)

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Post Week 7 Quickie

Bagel Time* has been blowing up my phone, desperate to gab about the state of the union through Week 7 and, you know, gloat a bit. Well…Bagel Time* is #1; Bagel Time* has scored the third most points in the league (while subsequently facing the second least points in the league); and Bagel Time* has posted the highest single-game Tight End and Linebacker performances to date. Bagel Time* is also getting an asterisk next to his name for the rest of the season.
*Team used a Bench Swap – results inflated.

We’re past Hump Day on the regular season. Week 7 was the second highest scoring week of the year, just 26.80 points shy of Week 3’s output. During the last three weeks, since our last update, five new single-game individual performance records were set, including the 61.30-point symphony by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 6. This is the highest defensive output in League History, including the earlier years when we awarded bonuses for huge plays. And they put up another 50 last night. Whoever is playing Reason to Kerrigan in Week 10, when the Ravens are on BYE, is one lucky S.O.B.

The state of the union is still in flux with the top and bottom halves of the league only a single game separated. Most of us are scraping by week to week, trying to grab whatever backup may be poised for a decent fill-in role that week, usually due to injury of another sub-standard teammate, in hopes that the proverbial ‘breakout’ status will accompany his inflated projection. Hope is fantasy football’s drug of choice, and we are all addicted to it.

Speaking of fantasy football addicts, I am particularly concerned with the health of White Wes Welkers. Having scraped together the 7th most points in the league, WWW has somehow dropped the last five matchups. Averaging 170 points per over the first two weeks, WWW has dropped to 135 per over the last five. May be time to reboot buddy. Why don’t you go ahead and move back east and we’ll work on this together.

My only other concern is with Wanted Dez or Alive. This A+ drafted squad holds the single-game high-score for the league at 212.45 in Week 3, but has averaged only 127.4 points per over the other six weeks. I think I know what’s going on here…according to a recent story in GQ, Trump secretly backed a grassroots campaign in 2014 to turn the Buffalo Bills and the people of Buffalo against Bon Jovi, because (big surprise) Trump lied and said that if Bon Jovi bought the team, he was going to move the Bills to Toronto. Interesting read. Stay focused buddy. You still got 200+ in you.

Alright TL3 – quick post. Just making sure the lights are still on.
-The Commish

Single Game League Leaders (through Week 7)
QB – Tom Brady (46.50 points in Week 3) – Unlockin’ Yo Schtuff
RB – Kareem Hunt (44.60 points in Week 1) – Air Jordy
WR – Amari Cooper (44.00 points in Week 7) – Trouble Hunter
TE – Jordan Reed (26.40 points in Week 7) – Bagel Time*
K – Ryan Succop (21.50 points in Week 6) – IJamAllDay
DEF – Baltimore Ravens (61.30 points in Week 6) – Reason to Kerrigan
LB – Telvin Smith (19.80 points in Week 5) – Bagel Time*
HIGH SCORE – Wanted Dez or Alive (212.45 points in Week 3)

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POSTLIMINARY WEEK 4

We are officially a quarter of the way through the season and I have no earthly idea how any team in this league, or any NFL team for that matter, is going to end up this year. I got nothing. The NFL and the state of Texas have no clue what to do with Ezekiel Elliott, the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills have now beaten the Broncos and Falcons in back-to-back weeks, and Kirk Cousins is channeling his inner RG3 as he’s led the Redskins in rushing yards in three of four games this season. This all just feels out of sorts. I think the results of the Ball Gazer submissions each week were evidence of that. Week 3 was so bad I didn’t even post the results (as a group we were borderline .500). Trouble Hunter flirted with destiny in Week 2 (13-3), which would have ordinarily earned her a Bench Swap in any other season, but her domestic partner already deprived her of that luxury.

Usually there are indicators at this point in the season of some league playoff contenders, dynamic lineups, strong defenses, and deep benches. Or worse yet, obvious duds, poor drafting, someone you hate, domestic violence, broken families, and even a DUI or two. We got none of that. Shit, the teams with the two worst report cards after the draft have the most points in the league to date.

The turmoil continued in Week 4 as five out of the top seven squads lost and five out of the bottom seven won. The battle of the 0-3s drew to a close with IJamAllDay victorious, leaving Reason to Kerrigan the only squad left without a W. But RTK’s 0-4 record has a huge asterisk next to it, being the victim of a bench swap in Week 2. RTK has also faced the toughest competition opposing the second most ‘Points Against’ to date. Christian’s Brothers is the only undefeated team left, but this squad has also been the beneficiary of the weakest competition in the league through the first four weeks, having faced the least amount of ‘Points Against’ in the league by 166 points. That’s just ridiculous. That’s kinda like getting spotted 41.5 points each week before the game even starts. No one should be concerned though, as this won’t last. CB is 22-25 over his career.

Circling back on the ‘Balls’ and ‘Swaps’ discussion, we need to take care of a little admin. The unplanned BYE in Week 1 for the Bucs and Dolphins unveiled a void in our ruleset. You don’t know you need a rule for something, until you need a rule for something, and you know what that means. I have modified the language in our Constitution to address this issue should it arise again. If any NFL games are cancelled or postponed during Week 1, the win requirement is set to 85% correct picks, assuming picks are submitted for each game being played. If Amendment 13.5.1 – Shrinking Balls takes effect and any NFL games are cancelled or postponed during Week 2, the win requirement is set to 78% correct picks, and if any NFL games are cancelled or postponed during Week 3, the win requirement is further set to 71% correct picks, again, assuming picks are submitted for each game being played. This will cover us in the event something like this comes up again.

BYE weeks come in to play in Week 5. The Falcons, Broncos, Saints, and Redskins are off.

-The Commish

Single Game League Leaders
QB – Tom Brady (46.50 points in Week 3) – Unlockin’ Yo Schtuff
RB – Kareem Hunt (44.60 points in Week 1) – Air Jordy
WR – Stefon Diggs (37.30 points in Week 3) – IJamAllDay
TE – Jason Witten (25.70 points in Week 2) – Schoolya’gain
K – Matt Prater & Stephen Hauschka (19.00 points in Week 3) – Wanted Dez or Alive & Trouble Hunter
DEF – Jacksonville (49.70 points in Week 1) – Schoolya’gain
LB – Bobby Wagner (16.60 points in Week 4) – Reason to Kerrigan
HIGH SCORE – Wanted Dez or Alive (212.45 points in Week 3)

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Pre-Draft Subliminal Messaging

As a result of last season’s trade for Le’Veon Bell, I have modified the Round 3 Draft Order. Yahoo has allowed me to transfer Air Jordy’s 3rd Round pick to Wanted Dez or Alive, giving him two picks in Round 3. See screenshot below.

I’ve conducted multiple live mock Yahoo drafts on both the laptop and the iPhone. They worked like a charm. For any teams new to Yahoo, please try one this weekend on whatever device you plan to use for the draft. It’s great practice for Sunday and you can get a good idea of who you will end up with in the first few rounds.

Remember to sign on early.

Jiggle your router connection. Make sure that shit aint loose.

Organize your notes. Or, just wing it. I think you’ll be fine.

Refill your cocktail.

Draft is Noon (12pm) eastern.

Yahoo, be good to us please….

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FINALS

The final week of the season and the Playoff Finals are here.

Unlockin Yo Schtuff (6) 9-6
vs.
Tannehill for President (4) 10-5

A Packer-backer and TL3 OG is in the finals! Unlockin Yo Schtuff has been up and down, unable to put a win streak together all season. Unlockin strung two wins together in weeks 1 and 2 and hadn’t repeated that feat until the past two weeks. However, he is averaging 160.93 points (5th) on the season, 162.98 points (1st) in the playoffs, and has a season high of 188.70 points (9th) in week 8.

TL3 sophomore, Tannehill for President, is riding a league-leading 8-2 record over the last 10 weeks and averaging 168.96 points per week (2nd) over this time frame, including his season high of 208.20 points (4th) in week 6. On the season T4P has a slight edge on Unlockin at 162.60 points per week (4th), but has only put together an average of 153.88 points (3rd) in the playoffs.

The last time these two teams met in week 11, Tannehill edged Unlockin by a mere 3 points. The final score was 171.65 to 168.65.

PAYDAY

I have to say, I think this little pay structure realignment/experiment seems to have worked out. The #1 overall seed didn’t run away with it, but will still walk away with a really nice return (at least $130). We certainly can’t say the same for the last two Regular Season Champions (cough, cough, same guy)…

For now we have at least six teams in the money with the potential for three more to hit pay dirt. Schoolya’gain and Wanted Dez or Alive each need one more win to reach the league minimum. If Schoolya’ wins, she simply earns back half her league dues and a 7th place finish. Wanted is in the 3rd place matchup with Air Jordy and is not only playing for his eighth win; this final W will also net him the Playoff 3rd Place Bonus. With a win, he earns almost all of his dues back. A loss, and he gets nothing but the extra 3rd round draft pick he already takes with him into next season.

The Whiteshadow and Eastside Forty-Ounces are both vying for their eighth win and the Consolation Bracket trophy (9th place). The Consolation Bracket winner is guaranteed the 4th round draft pick next year so there is much to play for in this matchup. The last time these two teams met in week 10, Whiteshadow dismantled Eastside by more than 40 points and didn’t leave a single point on the bench. The final score was 167.05 to 126.80.

LOMBARDI LEGENDS

ll2

Last but not least, there are a few teams whose final game will determine if they make the cut for next season’s Lombardi Legends league. Trouble Hunter and Tannehill for President are a lock. Unlockin and Air Jordy can snag the last two spots with a win. Bagel Time has a chance to take the fourth spot under three out of eight potential win-loss scenarios between these three teams. See below.

ll-scenarios

In Scenarios 2 and 7, if Air Jordy Loses and Bagel Time wins, Bagel takes the fourth spot no matter what. The tiebreaker for Lombardi Legends is total points and both Bagel and Unlockin have sizeable leads over Air Jordy. In Scenario 6, Unlockin will lose the 4th spot with wins by Air Jordy and Bagel, unless his total points for the week are 56.75 points more than Bagel Time’s total. This is not that far-fetched. The spread over 15 weeks of play averages 94.40 points. The high end of the spread is 151.30 taking place in week 3 (Bagel Time 235.55 – Wanted Dez or Alive 84.25), and the low end of the spread is 65.90 occurring last week in week 15 (Trouble Hunter 179.40 – Wanted Dez or Alive 113.50).

Next time you hear from me, we will have crowned our 5th Champion. And in honor of our 5th anniversary I am upping the ante on our league trophy. More to come. Finish strong.

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The Stage is (pretty much) Set

Here is a look at the preliminary standings for our playoffs starting next week…barring any miracles.

2016-playoffs-2

Trouble Hunter was a lock at #1 no matter what happened. Congratulations boo. Now’s when it really gets good.

Assuming the plane from Indianapolis lands in New Jersey, Air Jordy will secure the #2 seed. With a four-way tie at 8-5, Air Jordy gets the nod for overall tiebreaker by matchup. He beat each of the other three teams for a heads up record of 3-0.

RGIII’s Company earns the next matchup tiebreaker (3rd seed) for beating both Bagel Time and Tannehill for President for a heads up record of 2-1.

Late bloomer, Tannehill for President, is tied for the best record over the last seven games at 5-2 (tied with Trouble Hunter). He picks up the 4th seed for splitting his matchups with RGIII and Bagel finishing at 1-2 overall.

Bagel Time wraps up the tiebreaker with the 5th seed for not taking care of business when it counted. He lost to all three teams during the regular season, including losses by 0.05 and 1.40 points, finishing with a heads up record of 0-3. Inches man.

Unlockin Yo Schtuff and Schoolya’gain finish the regular season at 7-6, and the matchup tiebreaker goes to Wisconsin’s Unlockin (6 seed) for his win in Week 12 over the Twin City’s own Schoolya’gain (7 seed). Feels good to be on top of a Viking – I know what I’m talking about.

The final playoff spot goes to one of two teams in a head-to-head matchup in Week 13. It’s winner take all. Unless Frank Gore puts up a 34.60 stat line, Wanted Dez or Alive will squeak in at 6-7, tied with The Whiteshadow. The matchup tiebreaker would put WDOA in at #8 and a lock for the playoffs in his rookie season with the Lombardi Three.

That leaves up to two teams in the consolation bracket eligible for a cash payout this season (gotta get 8 wins). Keep playing no matter what. That cash payout and the #4 draft pick next year are still up for grabs.

Last but not least, all of this could be thrown in to complete upheaval if Brandon Marshall and T.Y. Hilton GO THE FUCK OFF tonight. I highly welcome that chaos. If they just match their best weeks at 25.40 and 33.10, respectively, Marshall and Hilton will put together just enough damage to spin Bagel Time into a 0.35 point loss meltdown and leave one Jon Bon junkie shot through the heart. Standby to standby…

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Every Point Counts

I’d like to be able to lay out the potential Win-Loss consequences for the eight (8) available playoff seeds, but with 12 of 14 teams only two games apart, the ‘if – then’ scenarios are very tough to estimate. There are a few broad likelihoods that you can anticipate. From the bottom up:

1. Lake Hickory Swallops is the only team already out of the playoffs. However, we must show our respect to the team that met, by far, the toughest schedule in the league this season. The Points Against LHS to date is 2,130.15. This is 188.85 points more than the next toughest schedule. Looking back at previous seasons, no other team faced this tough a schedule. Unprecedented. LHS met an average of 177.5 points per week in each of his matchups. It is damn near impossible to win against those numbers no matter how well you play. Sometimes, it just comes down to scheduling. Unfortunately, LHS caught each of his opponents this season on their best week.

To ensure everyone in the league that I am not blowing smoke up anyone’s ass, I want to further demonstrate my point by comparing The Swallops’ schedule with that of Air Jordy’s. I use Air Jordy because he faced the second easiest schedule this season with his Points Against at 1,788.90. Had their schedules been reversed, based on weekly points, LHS would be sitting in playoff contention at 6-6 and AJ would be at 3-9. I ran this analysis against a few other teams and the results for LHS were similar. Replaced with just about any other team’s schedule, LHS would be sitting with at least 5 wins.

This analysis does not sit well with me. This reinforces the realization that I am reminded of quite often; that most of our success in fantasy football is pure luck. Plain and simple. We are nothing but what time and circumstance has made us. Don’t let it get you down. And don’t let it give you false expectations.

2. “Must-win” is one of those sports adages that borders on overuse. But with 7 teams only a game apart, that cliché couldn’t ring more true. The five teams at 5-7 and the two teams at 6-6 absolutely must win. I would have thought the two 6-6 teams would have some outs if they lost, but unfortunately they both play lower ranked teams at 5-7, so they don’t have any power to ding one of the higher ranked teams and open some options above them.

3. The five teams at 7-5 are a lock for the playoffs if they win. There is a reasonable chance that if they lose, they could get bumped by either of the 6-6 teams that win. This could rearrange the playoff seeding quite dramatically. Remember, the tiebreaker for a parallel W-L record is matchup. E.g., if Tannehill for President finishes 8-5, and Unlockin Yo Schtuff finishes 8-5, T4P gets the higher seed because he beat UYS when they met in Week 11.

4. Trouble Hunter is a lock for the #1 seed no matter what happens. Nicely done.

Most importantly each and every team IS playing for something. There are still four weeks left in the season (one regular, three playoffs) and every team will be playing every week. Any of the bottom six finishers can win the Consolation playoffs and a guaranteed #4 draft pick next season. Also, based on the new payout structure, every team in the league, no matter how you finish in the rankings, is paid out at $3/win if their record is at or above .500. So, if you finish at 8-8 or above, you will get at least half of your dues back (well, almost half – $24). Also still up for grabs is the Regular Season 2nd Place Bonus. See the League Dues page for a recap on the new payout structure we are experimenting with this season.

I do have one more little morsel of encouragement. At the beginning of the season, post Week 2, I announced the formation of the Lombardi Legends league. The Lombardi Legends will coincide with the regular season and contest the top four teams from this season against each other. The top four teams will be determined by the Win-Loss records from the full 16-week season, regardless of final standings following the playoffs. Tiebreaker is total points. This is still wide open for half the teams in the league. Every win counts. And based on the current standings, there will likely be a tiebreaker at the end of the season. So every point counts too.