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FINALS

The final week of the season and the Playoff Finals are here.

Unlockin Yo Schtuff (6) 9-6
vs.
Tannehill for President (4) 10-5

A Packer-backer and TL3 OG is in the finals! Unlockin Yo Schtuff has been up and down, unable to put a win streak together all season. Unlockin strung two wins together in weeks 1 and 2 and hadn’t repeated that feat until the past two weeks. However, he is averaging 160.93 points (5th) on the season, 162.98 points (1st) in the playoffs, and has a season high of 188.70 points (9th) in week 8.

TL3 sophomore, Tannehill for President, is riding a league-leading 8-2 record over the last 10 weeks and averaging 168.96 points per week (2nd) over this time frame, including his season high of 208.20 points (4th) in week 6. On the season T4P has a slight edge on Unlockin at 162.60 points per week (4th), but has only put together an average of 153.88 points (3rd) in the playoffs.

The last time these two teams met in week 11, Tannehill edged Unlockin by a mere 3 points. The final score was 171.65 to 168.65.

PAYDAY

I have to say, I think this little pay structure realignment/experiment seems to have worked out. The #1 overall seed didn’t run away with it, but will still walk away with a really nice return (at least $130). We certainly can’t say the same for the last two Regular Season Champions (cough, cough, same guy)…

For now we have at least six teams in the money with the potential for three more to hit pay dirt. Schoolya’gain and Wanted Dez or Alive each need one more win to reach the league minimum. If Schoolya’ wins, she simply earns back half her league dues and a 7th place finish. Wanted is in the 3rd place matchup with Air Jordy and is not only playing for his eighth win; this final W will also net him the Playoff 3rd Place Bonus. With a win, he earns almost all of his dues back. A loss, and he gets nothing but the extra 3rd round draft pick he already takes with him into next season.

The Whiteshadow and Eastside Forty-Ounces are both vying for their eighth win and the Consolation Bracket trophy (9th place). The Consolation Bracket winner is guaranteed the 4th round draft pick next year so there is much to play for in this matchup. The last time these two teams met in week 10, Whiteshadow dismantled Eastside by more than 40 points and didn’t leave a single point on the bench. The final score was 167.05 to 126.80.

LOMBARDI LEGENDS

ll2

Last but not least, there are a few teams whose final game will determine if they make the cut for next season’s Lombardi Legends league. Trouble Hunter and Tannehill for President are a lock. Unlockin and Air Jordy can snag the last two spots with a win. Bagel Time has a chance to take the fourth spot under three out of eight potential win-loss scenarios between these three teams. See below.

ll-scenarios

In Scenarios 2 and 7, if Air Jordy Loses and Bagel Time wins, Bagel takes the fourth spot no matter what. The tiebreaker for Lombardi Legends is total points and both Bagel and Unlockin have sizeable leads over Air Jordy. In Scenario 6, Unlockin will lose the 4th spot with wins by Air Jordy and Bagel, unless his total points for the week are 56.75 points more than Bagel Time’s total. This is not that far-fetched. The spread over 15 weeks of play averages 94.40 points. The high end of the spread is 151.30 taking place in week 3 (Bagel Time 235.55 – Wanted Dez or Alive 84.25), and the low end of the spread is 65.90 occurring last week in week 15 (Trouble Hunter 179.40 – Wanted Dez or Alive 113.50).

Next time you hear from me, we will have crowned our 5th Champion. And in honor of our 5th anniversary I am upping the ante on our league trophy. More to come. Finish strong.

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Hao Jiu Mei Jian

Yes, this is a TL3 blog post. Rare sighting this season, I know. Truth is, your league biographer has been completely consumed with a new gig and dropped anchor during the busiest time of the year. That combined with a lot of personal travel kept yours truly off the laptop. To top it off, there has been an enormous amount of turmoil in the league this year related to injuries and the impact thereof, leaving us languishing and wearied in winds of uncertainty. The league standings reeling to and fro like grain fields swaying in the breeze; so heavy upon them the disappointment of their ever-changing rosters. An injury plagued season does not bode well for a 14-team league – something that was insufficiently considered with the re-expansion this season.

Having had time on my side, I’m not sure the weekly commentary would have held much weight or importance to it. The only permanence in the league has come from one team, Trouble Hunter. This fantasy rookie has thoroughly dominated this season and held an unrelenting half nelson on lady luck like no other team in league history. To date, TH has scored an average of 186 points per week, has players ranked in the top 7 at every position, with the exception of Kicker, and leads 3 out of 4 coaching metrics. In unprecedented fashion, TH still maintains 12 of 16 draft picks including 11 of the top 12 picks as healthy starters. No other team in the league can boast this level of good fortune. The chart below measures your wins against the reverberation of your draft picks.

week-10-players-remaining

Of note, reigning two-time regular season champion, Air Jordy, has had their roster completely decimated this season, retaining only 4 of the original 16 players drafted. Fortunately for AJ, they have faced the least amount of competition in the league to date and narrowly escaped with six wins, including an overturned win by 0.05 points (lowest in league history) in Week 3 after late stat corrections.

With a 5-way tie for second place and more than half the league only a game apart, playoff spots are still up for grabs for every team in the league. Although, teams looking to play the long game may possibly start thinking about next season. I want to remind you that this season we officially implemented the ability to utilize future draft picks as acquisition value. To support this type transaction I offer the following optional supplement to The Lombardi Three Constitution.

16.1.4 – The Big Short: Bearish traders may include an option as value to their trade deals. The option reduces the draft pick by one (1) round for each week (full game) the player acquired is injured and does not play, for a maximum of five (5) rounds. Suspension, partial games played, or poor performance are not valid against the option. E.g., Player A is traded for a 3rd round draft pick including the option. If the player misses 2 weeks due to injury, the draft pick drops to the 5th round. If the player misses the rest of the season the draft pick drops a maximum of five (5) rounds to the 8th round. This supplement is optional and must be specifically included in the trade deal.

Another trade issue arose this season that officially needs to be addressed. Due to current systematic restrictions on the NFL.com platform, the trade execution window of one (1) day is regularly stalled for an additional day due to what time of day the trade is officially accepted. For example, if a trade is accepted on Wednesday morning, the 1-day trade window does not officially start until the beginning of the next full day, Thursday, pushing the application of the trade until Friday morning. This makes it especially difficult to complete a trade for players competing on Thursday night games. The following amendment to The Lombardi Three Constitution supports this and potentially related scenarios, allowing for the teams involved to have their trade expedited.

16.2 – Hammer Time: Upon request, the League Manager has the ability to cut the red tape and expedite any accepted trade that has passed a 24-hour rejection window. The request must come from both teams involved. Manual adjustment to the team lineups will be made once the trade takes effect.

Looking ahead, we are facing the potential for playoff seeds being determined by tiebreaker, so I’m looking forward to covering the parade of make-or-break scenarios. I’ve been reading up on some new fantasy platforms including some unfranchised, private, pay-to-play platforms. Without doubt, we will never play another season on NFL.com. Additionally, five years of action, and the overall physical nature of the NFL, have confirmed that we are better with a 12-team lineup. How we incorporate reductions are TBD at a much later date. With that in mind, stop thinking, let things happen, and be the ball.

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Ball Gazer Results

Ball Gazer Results for 2016 have been posted to the Bench Swaps page. Each of the three weeks had one team missing the cut by a single game, with a notable Week 1 by RGIII’s Company at 13-3. Let’s not lose sight though of how much he sucked thereafter. Especially impressive, Schoolya’gain led the bunch with an average of double-digit (+10) successful picks each week. Take the value of that and add $3, and she can get herself a nice bowl of soup. The Whiteshadow couldn’t manage to break the .500 mark in the first two outings, so he must have wiped his ass with week three’s form. Tannehill for President and Bagel Time also stunk it up, but they keep expectations low to stay off of anyone’s lodestar. Don’t worry boys, no one noticed.

In summary, there are no winners this season. Till next year.

A copy of the results has been provided below with accompanying legend.

bg-results

legend

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Mr. Falcon

We may have a winner. As it stands there is one team that is sitting at 11-4 with the Monday night game to go. Pick: Saints. There are currently two teams with Bench Swaps in their back pockets (carried over from previous seasons). If you don’t want to face a third team with the unrelenting ability to chop off your head this season, I’d don that A-Town black and red tonight, break out the chicken-n-beer, put on some Ludacris, pour some O’E’ 800 on the block, give a big shout out to Buckhead, where old money lives and new money parties, and pray to the Falcon gods!

2-tommy_nobis_2

Or beseech Mr. Falcon himself, Tommy Nobis. In November 1965, Nobis became the first player drafted by the expansion Atlanta Falcons. The Houston Oilers also selected him in the AFL draft. This presented a dilemma and sparked a debate that reached as far as outer space when astronaut Frank Borman, aboard Gemini 7, talked back to earth with the message, “tell Nobis to sign with Houston.” (Borman’s sons were ball boys for the Oilers.) Nobis instead signed with Atlanta on December 14 and became the first member of the Atlanta Falcons, gaining the nickname “Mr. Falcon.”

Falcons great Tommy Nobis

Nobis holds an NFL record for 294 tackles and 12 interceptions in a rookie season. In eleven professional seasons he led the Falcons in tackles nine times, went to five Pro Bowls, was named All-Pro twice and was chosen for the NFL’s “All-Decade Team” for the 1960s. Beyond that, good luck trying to figure out Nobis’s true impact, because the stat lines aren’t really out there. The NFL didn’t start recording sacks for individual players until 1982, and his tackle numbers are lost to time. Probably why he is not in the NFL Hall of Fame today. Though you can mount a fair and reasonable case that he’s the greatest player Atlanta has ever known.

The rest of us are 86’d so on to this week’s results (minus tonight’s matchup)…

11-4
Trouble Hunter

10-5
Schoolya’gain

8-7
Bagel Time
IJamAllDay
White Wes Welkers

7-8
Air Jordy
Eastside Forty-Ounces
Lake Hickory Swallops
Reason to Kerrigan

6-9
Tannehill for President

5-10
RGIII’s Company
Unlockin Yo Schtuff
Wanted Dez or Alive

1-14
The Whiteshadow

Highlights: The Packers, Dolphins and Panthers were consensus picks – including Teddy B’s bae, Schoolya’gain, betting against her victorious Vikings. The only two teams to correctly pick the Bills were the two girls in our league – also the top two finishers this week. Unlockin Yo Schtuff and Wanted Dez or Alive were the only two teams to pick the 49ers over the Seahawks – and subsequently finish dead last. Yes, The Whiteshadow finished at 1-14 but he was also 100%. He only picked the Thursday night game. Lake Hickory Swallops was the only team that correctly picked the Eagles to win, but he also picked every home game with the exception of the Bills and Patriots, so there’s that. Lastly, RGIII’s Company was the only squad to throw the Bears a bone.

According to Jason Diamond of Rolling Stone, in the last decade, there has possibly been no bigger destroyer of football dreams than Jay Cuter of the Chicago Bears. Check out this article.

Thanks for your Ball Gazer participation this season ladies and gentleman. I for one am glad this shit is over.

Go Falcons!

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Ball Gazers – Week 1 Results

rgiiiFull disclosure – no one made the cut, so the following audit does not include the two Monday night games.

I have to say – not a bad showing, even though we were all nixed by the conclusion of the 1pm games with the exception of this week’s best in show, RGIII’s Company. Our two-time league champ had picked every game except the Bucs, Lions and Patriots. He had to wait out the late game last night to see if he was still in it. Oh wait, our champ lives in California. The late game is only punishment for the rest of us.

Ironically, the one and only team to pick the Patriots to win the late game was the only guy to ever drop $99.99 on the Bill Belichick Business School VHS catalog, White Wes Welkers. Seriously brochacho, no one picked the Pats to win. That has got to feel good.

On to the results:

11-3
RGIII’s Company

10-4
Air Jordy

9-5
Reason to Kerrigan
Schoolya’gain
White Wes Welkers

8-6
Eastside Forty-Ounces
IJamAllDay
Lake Hickory Swallops

7-7
Bagel Time
Tannehill for President
The Whiteshadow
Trouble Hunter
Unlockin Yo Schtuff

6-8
Wanted Dez or Alive

Highlights:
The only 2 teams to pick the Broncos to beat the Panthers were RGII’s Company and Reason to Kerrigan. Eastside Forty-Ounces was the only team to not pick the Browns to lose. The fuck? Schoolya’gain was the only team that hoped the Chargers would win. Pro tip honeybun (i.e., mansplaining) – just because you drafted Philip Rivers, picking the Chargers to win on your Ball Gazer form will not positively influence his in-game performance. The only two winners that everyone was sure of were the Packers and Seahawks. Schoolya’gain on the highlight reel again with the solo Lions pick (probably has their LB or something). Nice job though boo. As for the Monday night games, the picks are varied. Go Skins!

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2016 DRAFT

ABAs promised here are the draft ingredients.

WHEN: The Live Draft will be held on Sunday, September 4th at 11:00am EDT. There are still only 4 time zones in the continental US under the current administration, so the math remains the same – that’s 10:00am for all cheese spongers, and 8:00am for the plate tectonics on the left coast.

League veteran, Holy Cross alum, Tom Brady reach-around world record holder, and Mr. Special Treatment himself, White Wes Welkers, will be somewhere in the Pacific Ocean between Honolulu and Darwin (Australia). Let’s all send my man Copper Pipe some good juju from the land of the big PX. Getting online for the draft from the USS Coronado will likely be a deployment in itself. Our thoughts and best wishes are with you my friend. You are the HMFIC – send up a balloon, make it happen.

WHERE: The Live Draft will be held in Virginia Beach at newcomer Reason to Kerrigan’s beach bungalow in the sun. All team owners are invited to attend. League Manager will set up the usual Google Hangout beforehand for pre-draft high jinks and chicanery. Champagne coolies will be flowin’ like hot oil out of the rear main seal of a ’66 Dodge Polara. You know what I’m talkin’ bout dog. Any team owner that shows up on a beach/street cruiser has all post-draft cocktails paid for by the League Commissioner. Bike-gang after-party TBD.

WHO: This is it. The Draft order is set. Using multiple offline and online randomizers, multiple team owners set in to motion the 2016 Draft Lottery for the first overall pick. Based on the rules of The Lombardi Three Constitution, this year’s first overall draft pick is…

AIR JORDY

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I don’t want to hear it. Multiple team owners participated in the process. Get over it. The rest of the Draft order is set below. Remember we draft in snake format, reversing the order each round. The Lombardi Three Constitution is your point of reference. You should all have a copy on you at all times.

Draft Order

Stay tuned for the 2016 Bench Swap Forms and another friendly reminder or two to PAY YOUR DUES. Do your homework, keep your nose clean, and say your novenas to whatever fantasy football god you curse on Sundays. From here on out you’re on your own…

-The Commish

MTL3GA

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Rest of Season (ROS) Analysis – Post Week 10

Here’s a quickie.

ROS Analysis post Week 10

Strength by Position (updated): Based on the rest of your matchups, to include the anticipated playoff standings and projected matchup results, each one of these positions is stronger than your scheduled opponents. Don’t forget, this analysis takes in to consideration future matchups – not only your fantasy opponent, but the NFL matchups you and your fantasy opponent’s face.

Improvement: Based on the ROS I put together in Week 7, this is the change in Projected Finish. This takes in to consideration injuries (…Bell), the acquisitions you made over the last few weeks, and overall player improvement/decline (…Manning). Some rookies are finally getting their shot and showing their full potential (…Langford).

Again, continue to improve in those point-heavy, ball-catching positions you are short in. This is the last week of BYEs. After this week, dump the dead weight and diversify your bench, or use some of that stock to trade up. There were some studied shifts for a few teams, so continue to work it. Pull up the Depth Charts on the League home page and see who needs/has what. If after Week 11 you are still holding 2 Kickers and/or 2 Linebackers, you are doing it wrong.

This was our second lowest scoring week of the season at 1,932.65 (low: Week 4 – 1,809.15, high: Week 7 – 2,095.40) so I’m sure everyone was a little depressed with their results. Don’t overlook the lynching by the Tannehill Boys, with RB’s West and Langford combining for 68.30 points. And with Romo expected back this week, his favorite target, Dez Bryant, will start to get his. Keep an eye out yo.

The standings are so tight right now that you are only 1 win away from the next tier. Remember the top 8 teams make the playoffs. Top 4 cash out. Get that money dawg.

-The Commish

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A Bench Swap Has Been Exercised – Week 10

The White Wes Welkers have exercised their Bench Swap to replace Julius Thomas (R/W/T – 4.30) with Theo Riddick (RB – 5.60). This swap will tentatively net White Wes Welkers an additional 1.30 points and the win.

Final Score
White Wes Welkers 153.25 – Eastside Forty-Ounces 154.40

Adjusted Score
White Wes Welkers 154.55 – Eastside Forty-Ounces 154.40

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The Lombardi Three – Through Week 7

Since the National Football League began in 1920, only one team has played a complete perfect season (both regular season and playoffs): the 1972 Miami Dolphins, who won their fourteen regular season games and three postseason games, including Super Bowl VII, to finish the season 17–0–0. The Dolphins briefly extended their winning streak into the next season before losing to the Oakland Raiders on September 23, 1973.

1972 Dolphins-TeamPic2

It has often been reported that the surviving members of the 1972 Dolphins would either gather to drink champagne when the final undefeated team earned its first loss, or send a case of champagne to the team who beat this final undefeated team. The head coach of the 1972 Dolphins, Don Shula, did boringly deny this in a 2007 interview with ESPN. On August 20, 2013, four decades after their accomplishment, President Barack Obama hosted the ’72 Dolphins noting that they “never got their White House visit.”

Dolphins Fan

Why do I bring this up? Dolphins fan #1, Tannehill for Vice President (see above), knows what sort of legacy he was protecting and, quite fatefully and appropriately, dismantled Air Jordy in Week 7 crushing any hopes of a perfect, undefeated season.

Not that the 6-game winning streak was anything to brag about (Packer Cave went 8 straight in 2012, and Reservations For Six finished 7 in a row in 2013) but Air Jordy had been averaging 218.25 per week, 35 points per week more than his closest competitor, the White Wes Welkers, and 59 points per week more than the league average. Those averages took a slight dip in Week 7 after the pummeling by T4VP but don’t sleep on the League Leader. Air Jordy is healthy, has Big Ben coming back, owns the top 2 ball-carriers and 4 of the top 10 ball-catchers in the league. He faces IJamAllDay in Week 8, who is currently riding a 3-game win streak.

No matter where you sit in the standings right now, know one thing – you are only one game separated from half of the league surrounding you. The bottom 6 squads are only one game apart. Spots 2 through 6 are also only divided by a single win. This is about as balanced as it can be, I mean, half the league is going to lose each week. It’s that game of inches you have to play to get that next win and push yourself up to the next bracket. Two wins and you are in the top half of the league. Plenty of time left to find your OBJ (fuck that guy forever).

WHO’S HOT: IJamAllDay, Schoolya’gain and Lake Hickory Swallops have won 3 out of their last 4 matchups. The Swallops was hit with a Bench Swap this year so I imagine that chip on his shoulder is only going to make him more voracious. The White Wes Welkers are averaging 209.3 over the last 3 weeks and about the luckiest son-of-a-bitch I know. Trading Charles for Gronk right before the injury…it doesn’t get any luckier than that in fantasy football.

WHO’S NOT: Bagel Time has dropped 3 out of the last 4 showings after a strong 3-0 start. And despite the Week 7 takedown of Air Jordy, Tannehill for Vice President has lost another top tier RB for the season. This loss only decimates the RB field further and limits his options for recovery. But if anyone can do it, it’s T4VP. Despite the forthcoming Rest of Season (ROS) Analysis, I anticipate a rematch in the playoffs. You heard it here.

SLEEPER: RGIII’s Company, aka REDSKINS, aka Formerly GBJ, aka Genetic Black Jesus, is the ultimate sleeper squad. How this great white shark is not in the top 3 right now baffles me. If you drop his dud in Week 6, he is averaging 184.9 points per week, and has already put up an unreachable league high 280.90 in Week 3. Currently 10th, I guarantee he’s in the playoffs competing for the trophy again. The Rest of Season Analysis (source: confidential (I can’t give away all my secrets)) has him as the second strongest finisher in our league. Winter is coming. You heard it here.

REST OF SEASON (ROS) ANALYSIS: Strength by Position: Based on the rest of your matchups, each one of these positions is stronger than your scheduled opponents. So, essentially, man up in the other positions if you want to compete and kill this analysis. You may have done ok thus far, but this analysis takes in to consideration future matchups – not only your fantasy opponent, but the NFL matchups you and your fantasy opponent’s face.

And take a look at that – strength in WRs dominate the league, not the QB position. The top 3 QBs are currently on the rosters of teams in the bottom half of the league, and projected to stay there. This is a PPR league – Point Per Reception, not Point Per Completion (which is a scoring mechanism by the way, and a potential add-on for next season). Points per completion, at 1 point per, would be an interesting add. It would be nice to see our QB position have a little more impact on the league. Something to think about.

ROS Analysis

We have not reached the halfway point yet in the season. Still plenty of time. Be good or be good at it. Enjoy your weekends.
-The Commish

POSTSCRIPT: Prior to the development of a playoff system in the NFL in 1932, four teams, including the 1929 Green Bay Packers, also had an “undefeated” season. However, according to the 2012 NFL Record & Fact Book, under NFL practices at the time, from 1920 to 1971 tie games were not included in winning percentage. So, these four teams were recorded with perfect win percentages of 1.000.

1929 PACKERS-TeamPic

*I have one last little nugget for you. As you know, exhibition games are generally not counted toward standings, for or against. That said, the 1972 Miami Dolphins lost three of their preseason “exhibition” games in 1972. Just something funny to throw at one of those rare Dolphins fans you meet.

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Be Good or Be Good at It

cockblockOne…two….three…..four……FIVE Bench Swaps earned this week! And that’s before the start of tonight’s Kansas City – Green Bay game. When Green Bay wins tonight, one of our teams will be 15-1. And that dude still has a Bench Swap left over from last season. Hot damn, I hope he played those picks in his weekly pool. Let’s get to it.

A log has been created and added to the Bench Swaps page to keep track of the Bench Swaps earned and used.

Analysis: With the minimum 12 out of 16 requirement for Week 3’s Ball Gazers already met, the result of tonight’s game will not have an impact on the five winners. For the four of you out there that didn’t submit…..this shit has gotta hurt.

14-1
UnLockin Yo Schtuff (Green Bay) – next opp. Bagel Time

13-2
Packer Cave (Green Bay) – next opp. Tannehill For President

12-3
Air Jordy (Green Bay) – next opp. Eastside Forty-Ounces
Bagel Time (Green Bay) – next opp. UnLockin Yo Schtuff
White Wes Welkers (Green Bay) – next opp. Schoolya’gain

10-5
Schoolya’gain

9-6
Lake Hickory Swallops
Tannehill For President

0-16
Eastside Forty-Ounces
IJamAllDay
RG3III’s Company
Ya Down With ODBJ