Schoolya’gain flipped the district in Week 10 and unseated that gerrymandering, bench-swappin’ Bagel Time* in order take back the house. And she did it legit, with a Strength of Schedule differential right down the center of the spectrum. She was one of only two teams to survive an upset this week and has averaged 167 points per game over her current, league-leading 5-game win streak.
I have attempted to measure our strength of schedule through Week 10 by comparing each team’s current win percentage to their win percentage if they played every other team in the league each week. This is a very simple method for measuring how hard, or unlucky, your schedule has been and vice versa. I have charted these results below.
I caveat the following analysis not to pick on any teams in particular, but to provide defined examples of how the calculations are derived and demonstrate the unforgiving nature of playing this game from year to year. No matter what you do, sometimes the odds are just stacked against you. Don’t take it personal.
Looking at the EASY (or lucky (however you wish to look at it)) end of the spectrum, Christian’s Brothers, IJamAllDay, Bagel Time, and Trouble Hunter have had the most fortunate matchups to date, respectively.
- Christian’s Brothers has enjoyed a +19.2% advantage thus far, having been fortunate enough to compete against one of only a few teams who he could have beaten in multiple weeks. In Week 2, ten of the other thirteen teams in the league would have bested Christian Brother’s had they faced him, yet he was fortunate enough to have faced one of the only three teams he could have beaten. This happened again in Week 4 when the odds were even slimmer. Eleven teams in the league would have outscored CB, but again, he faced one of the two teams that couldn’t.
- IJamAllDay has been able to make the most of a +16.2% advantage, by scoring the least amount of points in the league but still managing a 5-5 record and a potential playoff position in the current standings. Looking at the same weekly scenarios, IJAD had the same luck in Week 6, as he squared off against one of only three teams he could have beaten that week.
- Bagel Time’s* advantage of 15.4% is negatively inflated by the use of the Bench Swap. Had he taken a loss that week he would be closer to the spectrum at 5.4%. However, he’s not off the hook. In Week 2 BT* had the luxury of playing one of only two teams he could have beaten that week, earning a win after a 124-point effort. Five other teams lost that week and they scored 140 points or more.
- Ditto Trouble Hunter in Weeks 2 and 8, facing one of the only two teams with a lower score in both matchups. Unfortunately for TH, she hasn’t been able to benefit as much from this luck as she has experienced both ends of the spectrum having lost in Week 9 to one of only four teams who could have beaten her.
Looking at the HARD (or unlucky) end of the spectrum, Air Jordy, Wanted Dez or Alive, Lake Hickory Swallops, K-Nasty and White Wes Welkers have had the most unfortunate matchups to date, respectively.
- Air Jordy has faced an -18.5% disadvantage thus far. Same story, different results. This started in Week 2 after putting up 170 points (170 points has only been eclipsed 22 times over our 140 scores this season) and losing to one of the only 2 teams with higher outputs. This happened again in Week 10 facing one of only 4 teams with the chops needed to win.
- A somewhat different scenario has plagued both Wanted Dez or Alive (-17.7% disadvantage) and Lake Hickory Swallops (-14.6% disadvantage) all season. Other than one or two duds, they have both been putting up consistent middle of the road numbers, but continually end up with the short straw when facing the one half of the league that could challenge them. For these guys it’s either been bad luck, or no luck at all.
- K-Nasty (-11.5% disadvantage) put up great numbers in Weeks 6 and 7, but faced one of the only four teams to beat him in Week 6, and a bottom half matchup in Week 7 driving his strength of schedule differential down. Another middle of the road guy that can’t catch a break.
- In Weeks 5 and 7, White Wes Welkers (-11.5% disadvantage) would have taken down any one of eight and nine matchups, respectively. These two wins would have been the difference between a 10th place and a 4th place standing. To add insult to injury, these losses were the meat of his league-leading, 5-game losing streak covering Weeks 3 through 7.
With three weeks left in the regular season, maybe these odds will start to balance themselves out as we compete against the remaining teams in the league we haven’t faced yet. A full historical Strength of Schedule will be performed and analyzed against the final standings for each season. Though, the more I dig in to the random, uncontrollable nature of fantasy football, the more I question its value. I fear where this will take me.
Of final note, Week 11 is traditionally our lowest scoring week of the season on average and we are trending that direction. Chart below explains everything.
We have new single-game leaders at QB, TE and LB. All of our top performances came out of Weeks 6 through 8, with the exception of RB, which still hasn’t been broken since Week 1.
Single Game League Leaders (through Week 10)
QB – Russel Wilson (46.60 points in Week 8) – Wanted Dez or Alive
RB – Kareem Hunt (44.60 points in Week 1) – Air Jordy
WR – Amari Cooper (44.00 points in Week 7) – Trouble Hunter
TE – Jack Doyle (30.10 points in Week 8) – White Wes Welkers
K – Ryan Succop (21.50 points in Week 6) – IJamAllDay
DEF – Baltimore Ravens (61.30 points in Week 6) – Reason to Kerrigan
LB – C. J. Mosley (20.30 points in Week 8) – Schoolya’gain
SEASON HIGH SCORE – Wanted Dez or Alive (212.45 points in Week 3)
SEASON WIN STREAK – Schoolya’gain (+5 Weeks 6-10)
The Lombardi Three 