Tag: Packer Cave

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The 8 Seed

No matter what happens in Week 13, non-colluding lovebirds, Air Jordy and Schoolya’gain, will finish #1 and #2, respectively. Air Jordy will repeat as Regular Season Champion and this will serve as the only recognition thereof. The real party is just getting started.

Playoff seeds #3 through #6 will be mixed based on the results of Week 13. If you currently reside in one of these 4 positions in the league standings, you will certainly make the playoffs in one of these 4 spots.

Playoff seed #7 and #8 will not have it that easy. As we all know, the #8 seed dethroned the #1 seed in the first round of the playoffs last season and went on to win the league championship. That #8 seed is still up for grabs and the potential for history to repeat itself rests in the hands of 5 teams. I have broken down the 8 scenarios in Week 13 that will determine who gets a crack at the title.

Our current standings tiebreaker is set to Head to Head (H2H) record. The secondary tiebreaker is ‘Total Points For’ (the total points a team scored across the season). There are 2 primary results, each with 4 scenarios that determine who the #8 seed will be. The 2 primary results are essentially who wins and who loses the RGIII’s Company vs. Lake Hickory Swallops matchup.

Primary Result 1 – RGIII’s Company wins. Lake Hickory Swallops loses.
In the 4 scenarios outlined below, Lake Hickory Swallops will retain the #8 seed based on the H2H record between the two tied teams at 5-8 in Scenarios 1 and 3, and the Total Points For where the H2H records offset each other (each of the 3 teams at 5-8 in Scenarios 2 and 4 beat each other once, i.e., LHS 1-1, PC 1-1, T4VP 1-1). I place an asterisk next to the Points tiebreaker because LHS only has a 32.75 Total Points advantage over T4VP. If T4VP’s results in Week 13 exceed LHS’s results by this margin (very possible), then T4VP could win the tiebreaker. This is the only scenario T4VP makes the playoffs.
Simplified: If LHS loses, he better hope T4VP doesn’t outscore him by 32.75 points. Otherwise he’s in.

8 Seed Result 1

Primary Result 2 – Lake Hickory Swallops wins, RGIII’s Company loses.
This was a must-win for RG3. If he loses, he does not have a chance at the playoffs. In Scenarios 5 through 8 outlined below, the winner of the Packer Cave and Ya Down With ODBJ matchup takes the #8 seed based simply on the H2H records.
Simplified: RG3 and T4VP guaranteed out. Winner of PC vs. YD matchup is in.

8 Seed Result 2

*By the way, if Ya Down with ODBJ wins, his H2H tiebreaker with RG3 in Scenarios 5 and 8 was a result of the Week 4 matchup between the 2 teams where YD wins by the smallest possible margin, 0.10 points (142.20 – 142.30). I’ll say it again – that is a single yard for any player on the roster. Fucking inches man.

I do have a caveat to this analysis, especially with Primary Result 1. There is no official setting for a 3-way tiebreaker, like we have in Scenarios 2 and 4, and I have to assume that the tiebreaker goes to the ‘Total Points For’ as this is the secondary option. If the results end up different than what I have outlined, I will certainly investigate what the actual system settings determined and either provide justification or rectification. Either way, we will make sure the #8 spot is accurately and fairly seeded.

Go forth. Do what you do.
-The Commish

“A team that thinks it’s going to lose is going to lose.”
-Vince Lombardi

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Rest of Season (ROS) Analysis – Post Week 10

Here’s a quickie.

ROS Analysis post Week 10

Strength by Position (updated): Based on the rest of your matchups, to include the anticipated playoff standings and projected matchup results, each one of these positions is stronger than your scheduled opponents. Don’t forget, this analysis takes in to consideration future matchups – not only your fantasy opponent, but the NFL matchups you and your fantasy opponent’s face.

Improvement: Based on the ROS I put together in Week 7, this is the change in Projected Finish. This takes in to consideration injuries (…Bell), the acquisitions you made over the last few weeks, and overall player improvement/decline (…Manning). Some rookies are finally getting their shot and showing their full potential (…Langford).

Again, continue to improve in those point-heavy, ball-catching positions you are short in. This is the last week of BYEs. After this week, dump the dead weight and diversify your bench, or use some of that stock to trade up. There were some studied shifts for a few teams, so continue to work it. Pull up the Depth Charts on the League home page and see who needs/has what. If after Week 11 you are still holding 2 Kickers and/or 2 Linebackers, you are doing it wrong.

This was our second lowest scoring week of the season at 1,932.65 (low: Week 4 – 1,809.15, high: Week 7 – 2,095.40) so I’m sure everyone was a little depressed with their results. Don’t overlook the lynching by the Tannehill Boys, with RB’s West and Langford combining for 68.30 points. And with Romo expected back this week, his favorite target, Dez Bryant, will start to get his. Keep an eye out yo.

The standings are so tight right now that you are only 1 win away from the next tier. Remember the top 8 teams make the playoffs. Top 4 cash out. Get that money dawg.

-The Commish

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The Lombardi Three – Through Week 7

Since the National Football League began in 1920, only one team has played a complete perfect season (both regular season and playoffs): the 1972 Miami Dolphins, who won their fourteen regular season games and three postseason games, including Super Bowl VII, to finish the season 17–0–0. The Dolphins briefly extended their winning streak into the next season before losing to the Oakland Raiders on September 23, 1973.

1972 Dolphins-TeamPic2

It has often been reported that the surviving members of the 1972 Dolphins would either gather to drink champagne when the final undefeated team earned its first loss, or send a case of champagne to the team who beat this final undefeated team. The head coach of the 1972 Dolphins, Don Shula, did boringly deny this in a 2007 interview with ESPN. On August 20, 2013, four decades after their accomplishment, President Barack Obama hosted the ’72 Dolphins noting that they “never got their White House visit.”

Dolphins Fan

Why do I bring this up? Dolphins fan #1, Tannehill for Vice President (see above), knows what sort of legacy he was protecting and, quite fatefully and appropriately, dismantled Air Jordy in Week 7 crushing any hopes of a perfect, undefeated season.

Not that the 6-game winning streak was anything to brag about (Packer Cave went 8 straight in 2012, and Reservations For Six finished 7 in a row in 2013) but Air Jordy had been averaging 218.25 per week, 35 points per week more than his closest competitor, the White Wes Welkers, and 59 points per week more than the league average. Those averages took a slight dip in Week 7 after the pummeling by T4VP but don’t sleep on the League Leader. Air Jordy is healthy, has Big Ben coming back, owns the top 2 ball-carriers and 4 of the top 10 ball-catchers in the league. He faces IJamAllDay in Week 8, who is currently riding a 3-game win streak.

No matter where you sit in the standings right now, know one thing – you are only one game separated from half of the league surrounding you. The bottom 6 squads are only one game apart. Spots 2 through 6 are also only divided by a single win. This is about as balanced as it can be, I mean, half the league is going to lose each week. It’s that game of inches you have to play to get that next win and push yourself up to the next bracket. Two wins and you are in the top half of the league. Plenty of time left to find your OBJ (fuck that guy forever).

WHO’S HOT: IJamAllDay, Schoolya’gain and Lake Hickory Swallops have won 3 out of their last 4 matchups. The Swallops was hit with a Bench Swap this year so I imagine that chip on his shoulder is only going to make him more voracious. The White Wes Welkers are averaging 209.3 over the last 3 weeks and about the luckiest son-of-a-bitch I know. Trading Charles for Gronk right before the injury…it doesn’t get any luckier than that in fantasy football.

WHO’S NOT: Bagel Time has dropped 3 out of the last 4 showings after a strong 3-0 start. And despite the Week 7 takedown of Air Jordy, Tannehill for Vice President has lost another top tier RB for the season. This loss only decimates the RB field further and limits his options for recovery. But if anyone can do it, it’s T4VP. Despite the forthcoming Rest of Season (ROS) Analysis, I anticipate a rematch in the playoffs. You heard it here.

SLEEPER: RGIII’s Company, aka REDSKINS, aka Formerly GBJ, aka Genetic Black Jesus, is the ultimate sleeper squad. How this great white shark is not in the top 3 right now baffles me. If you drop his dud in Week 6, he is averaging 184.9 points per week, and has already put up an unreachable league high 280.90 in Week 3. Currently 10th, I guarantee he’s in the playoffs competing for the trophy again. The Rest of Season Analysis (source: confidential (I can’t give away all my secrets)) has him as the second strongest finisher in our league. Winter is coming. You heard it here.

REST OF SEASON (ROS) ANALYSIS: Strength by Position: Based on the rest of your matchups, each one of these positions is stronger than your scheduled opponents. So, essentially, man up in the other positions if you want to compete and kill this analysis. You may have done ok thus far, but this analysis takes in to consideration future matchups – not only your fantasy opponent, but the NFL matchups you and your fantasy opponent’s face.

And take a look at that – strength in WRs dominate the league, not the QB position. The top 3 QBs are currently on the rosters of teams in the bottom half of the league, and projected to stay there. This is a PPR league – Point Per Reception, not Point Per Completion (which is a scoring mechanism by the way, and a potential add-on for next season). Points per completion, at 1 point per, would be an interesting add. It would be nice to see our QB position have a little more impact on the league. Something to think about.

ROS Analysis

We have not reached the halfway point yet in the season. Still plenty of time. Be good or be good at it. Enjoy your weekends.
-The Commish

POSTSCRIPT: Prior to the development of a playoff system in the NFL in 1932, four teams, including the 1929 Green Bay Packers, also had an “undefeated” season. However, according to the 2012 NFL Record & Fact Book, under NFL practices at the time, from 1920 to 1971 tie games were not included in winning percentage. So, these four teams were recorded with perfect win percentages of 1.000.

1929 PACKERS-TeamPic

*I have one last little nugget for you. As you know, exhibition games are generally not counted toward standings, for or against. That said, the 1972 Miami Dolphins lost three of their preseason “exhibition” games in 1972. Just something funny to throw at one of those rare Dolphins fans you meet.

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Be Good or Be Good at It

cockblockOne…two….three…..four……FIVE Bench Swaps earned this week! And that’s before the start of tonight’s Kansas City – Green Bay game. When Green Bay wins tonight, one of our teams will be 15-1. And that dude still has a Bench Swap left over from last season. Hot damn, I hope he played those picks in his weekly pool. Let’s get to it.

A log has been created and added to the Bench Swaps page to keep track of the Bench Swaps earned and used.

Analysis: With the minimum 12 out of 16 requirement for Week 3’s Ball Gazers already met, the result of tonight’s game will not have an impact on the five winners. For the four of you out there that didn’t submit…..this shit has gotta hurt.

14-1
UnLockin Yo Schtuff (Green Bay) – next opp. Bagel Time

13-2
Packer Cave (Green Bay) – next opp. Tannehill For President

12-3
Air Jordy (Green Bay) – next opp. Eastside Forty-Ounces
Bagel Time (Green Bay) – next opp. UnLockin Yo Schtuff
White Wes Welkers (Green Bay) – next opp. Schoolya’gain

10-5
Schoolya’gain

9-6
Lake Hickory Swallops
Tannehill For President

0-16
Eastside Forty-Ounces
IJamAllDay
RG3III’s Company
Ya Down With ODBJ

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Challenge Flag – Ties

Red-Challenge-FlagThis league has proven, over the course of 4 seasons, to incessantly challenge the details of our league and the rules/settings we have in place. You don’t know you need a rule for something, until you need a rule for something. Some challenge flags were thrown this week in regards to how our bench swap went down. No one had any real issue with it, but discussions were had regarding the extraordinary, predestined coincidence that it resulted in a tie. Of course it resulted in a tie. Would you have expected anything else in this league?

I was really hoping that stat corrections would come in and impact this bench swap in one way or another, but we couldn’t be so lucky. Stat corrections have trickled in over the last few days, but nothing emerged for either Packer Cave or Schoolya’gain, so this matchup remains a tie (post bench swap). And because we haven’t officially addressed how to handle a tie when a bench swap is exercised, we appropriately default to current league rules/settings (ties are broken by total bench points).

Last season we were presented with a similar conundrum with Schoolya’gain and another one of Packerland South’s elite. A bench swap was exercised late in Week 6 after the stat corrections for that week had filtered in. However, the Constitution stated that the bench swap had to be used by the Tuesday night deadline. We never took the period for stat corrections in to consideration when originally designing the use of bench swaps, so, in good faith and integrity we appropriately defaulted to the current league rules/settings and did not allow the bench swap to be utilized. This identified a discrepancy in the process and we adjusted the Constitution to reflect these considerations in future seasons.

Numerous offline discussions this week have presented some good ideas and challenges to the way we treat matchup ties – whether a bench swap is utilized or not. Currently matchup ties default to the total bench points. We can set this up at any position in the Lineup (QB, Total RBs, Total WRs, TE, K, DEF or LB) with the exception of the FLEX position. That is the extent of what we can do. If using any one of the other positions in the lineup makes more sense than using the bench, state your case.

For matchup ties as the result of a bench swap, we can and should address these differently. I am on board with the proposal that any matchup ties as the result of a bench swap, like the one we had this week, would default back to the coached score, effectively making the use of the bench swap invalid. If you have a different opinion or viewpoint on this proposed amendment to the process, please state your case.

This and any amendment to the bench swap process would not take effect until next season. Of course, this will probably never happen again, but like I said, you don’t know you need a rule for something, until you need a rule for something. Lambeau wasn’t built in a day.

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We Have a Winner!

BradfordYeah right – winner of Last Place! Holy shit that was bad. Like really bad. Like Cowboys-Eagles, cross-eyed Sam Bradford bad. I really don’t have too many words for this. There were only 7 submissions, but maybe those 5 separatists knew something we didn’t. Or maybe they just wanted to save the embarrassment of the following list of results. Good news is that the final submissions for Week 3 will only command 12 out of 16 correct picks to earn a Bench Swap. This is the week we saw 2 swaps earned last season.

Analysis: Ignominious and discommodious. We were all eighty-sixed by the conclusion of the 1:00 pm games. A few of you were sunk after the first 3 games. No one selected the Browns, Buccs, Skins, Raiders or Jags to win. One Packer-diehard chose the Seahawks to win, but only to guarantee victory for the Green and Gold. Shit works like that sometimes, you know.

6-9
Air Jordy
Tannehill For President
Ya Down With ODBJ

5-10
Eastside Forty-Ounces (0-3 for the first 3 games)

4-11
Bagel Time
Schoolya’gain (0-6 for the first 6 games)

3-12
Lake Hickory Swallops (0-3 for the first 3 games)

0-16 (AWOL)
IJamAllDay
Packer Cave
RGIII’s Company
UnLockin Yo Schtuff
White Wes Welkers

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You’ll Get Nothing and Like It

By the conclusion of the 4:00 PM games, there were no teams left eligible for a Bench Swap. We were done by the 1:00 PM games last year so either we are getting better at this or the spread was just that much greater.

Of the 8 submissions, no one picked the Bears, Skins or Raiders to win. Only Tannehill For Prez correctly picked the Rams to beat the Seahawks. Eastside Forty-Oz was the only one to pick the Giants over the Cowboys, and Schoolya’gain was the only one that thought the Ravens would beat the Broncos at home. Her card was ugly but she looked damn good at the bar yesterday sporting her new fantasy gear.

Schoolya

Analysis: Eight out of twelve submissions is lame. You can’t win the lottery unless you play. That’s…like…the only requirement to win. Someone is probably going to win this thing next week. Why are the Raiders still a football team? How long is that gonna go on??

11-3
Bagel Time
Tannehill For President

10-4
Air Jordy
White Wes Welkers

9-5
Eastside Forty-Ounces
Packer Cave

9-3
Ya Down With ODBJ (left 2 teams off of his submission – wtf dude?)

7-7
Schoolya’gain

0-16 (Absconders)
IJamAllDay
Lake Hickory Swallops
RGIII’s Company
UnLockin Yo Schtuff

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2015 Draft Winner

The Live Draft will be this Saturday morning September 5th at 11:30am eastern. That’s 8:30am for the dirt-devils out west and somewhere in between for you cheese-eaters. Two (2) days people – do what you gotta do.

Air Jordy and Eastside Forty-Ounces have run a series of offline and online randomizers and the winner of the 1st Overall Draft Pick is….

RGIII’s COMPANY

 

This is about the only action any RGIII will see this season. The rest of the teams fall in to place based on the rules of the Constitution.

2015 Draft Order

If you have any bitches, moans or complaints about anything, I no longer care. We are now on the other side of the field from each other. You have been provided everything you need. You create your own wealth from here…

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2015 Enactments

[good news, bad news, no news, whatever I can do to keep my mind off Jordy….]
-my subconscious

The good news is that all team managers have checked in with me, so we are all set for 2015.

The bad news is that we lost Reservations for Six. Our 2013 Champ is taking a break – like me and my Ashley Madison account (too much heat right now). With RF6’s departure we are back to the 12-team format we had last year. We will each play each other once, then I will adjust the schedule in Weeks 12 and 13 to mirror what we did last season (see post Schedule for Weeks 12 and 13, dtd November 11, 2014).

I got no news on League Dues from some of you still. What’s the deally yo? I do know how to fix this, and I think this is a good opportunity to introduce a new amendment to The Lombardi Three Constitution. What’s a new year without a new amendment…or three? Peep this.

Here ye, here ye, as League Manager I have set in to motion three (3) new amendments to the Constitution. These amendments permit time for the League Manager to execute the lottery, shape the final draft lineup, establish the first week’s schedule and outline the process for Week’s 12 and 13 should we playing with a 12-team roster.

Ejection Seat

15.1 – The Ejection Seat: Any team that fails to pay their League Dues by the prescribed deadline* outlined by the League Manager will be ejected from any fixed draft position and will not be allowed to participate in the draft lottery for first overall pick. Said derelict(s) will be repositioned at the bottom of the draft lineup.
*The deadline for League Dues is typically 3 calendar days prior to draft day.

Rematch

15.2 – Rematch Beeyatch: The first week’s lineup each season will be established based on the results of the previous season. The 1st place finisher will play the 2nd place finisher; the 3rd place finisher will play the 4th place finisher; and so on. If teams have been retired or removed, the standings simply shift up. Any new teams fall to the bottom of the order, similar to the draft standings. Each successive week is randomized by NFL.com.

Week 1 Preview
Money Manziel vs. Eastside Forty-Ounces
White Wes Welkers vs. IJamAllDay
LockinUWL vs. REDSKINS
Packer Cave vs. Air Jordy
Lake Hickory Swallops vs. Bagel Time
Schoolya’gain vs. Tannehill for President

15.3 – Fugazi: (This amendment is only valid by means of a 12-team roster. This amendment is void by means of a 14-team roster.) Once Week 11 concludes the schedule will be manually set to allow for a mini-playoff before the actual playoffs begin. Following the conclusion of Week 11, we will establish the schedule for Weeks 12 and 13 based on the League Standings. For Week 12, we will set it up as follows.

Team 1 vs. Team 7
Team 2 vs. Team 8
Team 3 vs. Team 9
Team 4 vs. Team 10
Team 5 vs. Team 11
Team 6 vs. Team 12

Using the same League Standings after the conclusion of Week 11, we will set up the final Week of the regular season to play your neighbor. This will be a true test of which team best deserves that position in the playoffs. For Week 13, we will set it up as follows.

Team 1 vs. Team 2
Team 3 vs. Team 4
Team 5 vs. Team 6
Team 7 vs. Team 8
Team 9 vs. Team 10
Team 11 vs. Team 12

Lots to digest this post I know. But really, who’s reading this shit anyway? Study hard this weekend. I hear Jordy Nelson is ok, so don’t mess around and not pick him up first round. I got a guy on this inside. Trust me.

-The Commish

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Season 4 – Draft / Dues

The following Draft Order has been set per the Constitution. The bottom two picks will be reserved for our two new teams. More to follow on these bozos. Like last year, any team NOT in a guaranteed slot (picks 2 through 6) will be entered in to a random drawing for first overall pick. For those that are in the guaranteed slots, please let me know if you plan on exercising Amendment 13.1.1 ‘Balls Of Steel’ per the Constitution. The random drawing for 1st overall pick will be held prior to the beginning of the season and announced on this site.

2015 Draft Order

In keeping with tradition, the Draft Party will be held at a new location. This year it will be hosted in our nation’s capital at the league’s new center of operations in Old Town Alexandria, Virginia. Locals Air Jordy, Schoolya’gain, Eastside Forty-Ounces and Bagel Time will be in attendance. For anyone that wants to drive up, train up, or fly in, there is plenty of room. Bring yo’ ass. Draft date will likely be late morning on Saturday, September 5th.

League Dues have been updated to $40 per team. This small $15 increase allows us to double the reward to the top 4 winners at best. I may tweak this slightly to include rewards for Regular Season Champion and/or some of the other key accolades. See the League Dues tab for information on how to pay, the award breakout and tracking on who has paid / hasn’t paid. These are due sooner rather than later. I am an intolerant tyrant and I will arm the resistance. This is a pay-to-play league, and similar to last year, my peak of impatience is estimated to reach irreparable levels two weeks prior to the draft. One of you still owes last year’s dues. Just sayin’.

If you are not going to play this year, please do not sit on this decision. Do me the favor of letting me know sooner rather than later. No hard feelings, sincerely. I would always prefer that you sit out if you are not dedicated to the cause. There are certainly better things you can be doing with your time and I only want degenerates like myself committed to driving themselves insane each week.

Stay tuned for an upcoming post on the administrative changes to scoring and waiver wire priority we reviewed at the end of last season.

-The Commish