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The Lombardi Three – Through Week 7

Since the National Football League began in 1920, only one team has played a complete perfect season (both regular season and playoffs): the 1972 Miami Dolphins, who won their fourteen regular season games and three postseason games, including Super Bowl VII, to finish the season 17–0–0. The Dolphins briefly extended their winning streak into the next season before losing to the Oakland Raiders on September 23, 1973.

1972 Dolphins-TeamPic2

It has often been reported that the surviving members of the 1972 Dolphins would either gather to drink champagne when the final undefeated team earned its first loss, or send a case of champagne to the team who beat this final undefeated team. The head coach of the 1972 Dolphins, Don Shula, did boringly deny this in a 2007 interview with ESPN. On August 20, 2013, four decades after their accomplishment, President Barack Obama hosted the ’72 Dolphins noting that they “never got their White House visit.”

Dolphins Fan

Why do I bring this up? Dolphins fan #1, Tannehill for Vice President (see above), knows what sort of legacy he was protecting and, quite fatefully and appropriately, dismantled Air Jordy in Week 7 crushing any hopes of a perfect, undefeated season.

Not that the 6-game winning streak was anything to brag about (Packer Cave went 8 straight in 2012, and Reservations For Six finished 7 in a row in 2013) but Air Jordy had been averaging 218.25 per week, 35 points per week more than his closest competitor, the White Wes Welkers, and 59 points per week more than the league average. Those averages took a slight dip in Week 7 after the pummeling by T4VP but don’t sleep on the League Leader. Air Jordy is healthy, has Big Ben coming back, owns the top 2 ball-carriers and 4 of the top 10 ball-catchers in the league. He faces IJamAllDay in Week 8, who is currently riding a 3-game win streak.

No matter where you sit in the standings right now, know one thing – you are only one game separated from half of the league surrounding you. The bottom 6 squads are only one game apart. Spots 2 through 6 are also only divided by a single win. This is about as balanced as it can be, I mean, half the league is going to lose each week. It’s that game of inches you have to play to get that next win and push yourself up to the next bracket. Two wins and you are in the top half of the league. Plenty of time left to find your OBJ (fuck that guy forever).

WHO’S HOT: IJamAllDay, Schoolya’gain and Lake Hickory Swallops have won 3 out of their last 4 matchups. The Swallops was hit with a Bench Swap this year so I imagine that chip on his shoulder is only going to make him more voracious. The White Wes Welkers are averaging 209.3 over the last 3 weeks and about the luckiest son-of-a-bitch I know. Trading Charles for Gronk right before the injury…it doesn’t get any luckier than that in fantasy football.

WHO’S NOT: Bagel Time has dropped 3 out of the last 4 showings after a strong 3-0 start. And despite the Week 7 takedown of Air Jordy, Tannehill for Vice President has lost another top tier RB for the season. This loss only decimates the RB field further and limits his options for recovery. But if anyone can do it, it’s T4VP. Despite the forthcoming Rest of Season (ROS) Analysis, I anticipate a rematch in the playoffs. You heard it here.

SLEEPER: RGIII’s Company, aka REDSKINS, aka Formerly GBJ, aka Genetic Black Jesus, is the ultimate sleeper squad. How this great white shark is not in the top 3 right now baffles me. If you drop his dud in Week 6, he is averaging 184.9 points per week, and has already put up an unreachable league high 280.90 in Week 3. Currently 10th, I guarantee he’s in the playoffs competing for the trophy again. The Rest of Season Analysis (source: confidential (I can’t give away all my secrets)) has him as the second strongest finisher in our league. Winter is coming. You heard it here.

REST OF SEASON (ROS) ANALYSIS: Strength by Position: Based on the rest of your matchups, each one of these positions is stronger than your scheduled opponents. So, essentially, man up in the other positions if you want to compete and kill this analysis. You may have done ok thus far, but this analysis takes in to consideration future matchups – not only your fantasy opponent, but the NFL matchups you and your fantasy opponent’s face.

And take a look at that – strength in WRs dominate the league, not the QB position. The top 3 QBs are currently on the rosters of teams in the bottom half of the league, and projected to stay there. This is a PPR league – Point Per Reception, not Point Per Completion (which is a scoring mechanism by the way, and a potential add-on for next season). Points per completion, at 1 point per, would be an interesting add. It would be nice to see our QB position have a little more impact on the league. Something to think about.

ROS Analysis

We have not reached the halfway point yet in the season. Still plenty of time. Be good or be good at it. Enjoy your weekends.
-The Commish

POSTSCRIPT: Prior to the development of a playoff system in the NFL in 1932, four teams, including the 1929 Green Bay Packers, also had an “undefeated” season. However, according to the 2012 NFL Record & Fact Book, under NFL practices at the time, from 1920 to 1971 tie games were not included in winning percentage. So, these four teams were recorded with perfect win percentages of 1.000.

1929 PACKERS-TeamPic

*I have one last little nugget for you. As you know, exhibition games are generally not counted toward standings, for or against. That said, the 1972 Miami Dolphins lost three of their preseason “exhibition” games in 1972. Just something funny to throw at one of those rare Dolphins fans you meet.

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2015 Enactments

[good news, bad news, no news, whatever I can do to keep my mind off Jordy….]
-my subconscious

The good news is that all team managers have checked in with me, so we are all set for 2015.

The bad news is that we lost Reservations for Six. Our 2013 Champ is taking a break – like me and my Ashley Madison account (too much heat right now). With RF6’s departure we are back to the 12-team format we had last year. We will each play each other once, then I will adjust the schedule in Weeks 12 and 13 to mirror what we did last season (see post Schedule for Weeks 12 and 13, dtd November 11, 2014).

I got no news on League Dues from some of you still. What’s the deally yo? I do know how to fix this, and I think this is a good opportunity to introduce a new amendment to The Lombardi Three Constitution. What’s a new year without a new amendment…or three? Peep this.

Here ye, here ye, as League Manager I have set in to motion three (3) new amendments to the Constitution. These amendments permit time for the League Manager to execute the lottery, shape the final draft lineup, establish the first week’s schedule and outline the process for Week’s 12 and 13 should we playing with a 12-team roster.

Ejection Seat

15.1 – The Ejection Seat: Any team that fails to pay their League Dues by the prescribed deadline* outlined by the League Manager will be ejected from any fixed draft position and will not be allowed to participate in the draft lottery for first overall pick. Said derelict(s) will be repositioned at the bottom of the draft lineup.
*The deadline for League Dues is typically 3 calendar days prior to draft day.

Rematch

15.2 – Rematch Beeyatch: The first week’s lineup each season will be established based on the results of the previous season. The 1st place finisher will play the 2nd place finisher; the 3rd place finisher will play the 4th place finisher; and so on. If teams have been retired or removed, the standings simply shift up. Any new teams fall to the bottom of the order, similar to the draft standings. Each successive week is randomized by NFL.com.

Week 1 Preview
Money Manziel vs. Eastside Forty-Ounces
White Wes Welkers vs. IJamAllDay
LockinUWL vs. REDSKINS
Packer Cave vs. Air Jordy
Lake Hickory Swallops vs. Bagel Time
Schoolya’gain vs. Tannehill for President

15.3 – Fugazi: (This amendment is only valid by means of a 12-team roster. This amendment is void by means of a 14-team roster.) Once Week 11 concludes the schedule will be manually set to allow for a mini-playoff before the actual playoffs begin. Following the conclusion of Week 11, we will establish the schedule for Weeks 12 and 13 based on the League Standings. For Week 12, we will set it up as follows.

Team 1 vs. Team 7
Team 2 vs. Team 8
Team 3 vs. Team 9
Team 4 vs. Team 10
Team 5 vs. Team 11
Team 6 vs. Team 12

Using the same League Standings after the conclusion of Week 11, we will set up the final Week of the regular season to play your neighbor. This will be a true test of which team best deserves that position in the playoffs. For Week 13, we will set it up as follows.

Team 1 vs. Team 2
Team 3 vs. Team 4
Team 5 vs. Team 6
Team 7 vs. Team 8
Team 9 vs. Team 10
Team 11 vs. Team 12

Lots to digest this post I know. But really, who’s reading this shit anyway? Study hard this weekend. I hear Jordy Nelson is ok, so don’t mess around and not pick him up first round. I got a guy on this inside. Trust me.

-The Commish

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Season 4 – Draft / Dues

The following Draft Order has been set per the Constitution. The bottom two picks will be reserved for our two new teams. More to follow on these bozos. Like last year, any team NOT in a guaranteed slot (picks 2 through 6) will be entered in to a random drawing for first overall pick. For those that are in the guaranteed slots, please let me know if you plan on exercising Amendment 13.1.1 ‘Balls Of Steel’ per the Constitution. The random drawing for 1st overall pick will be held prior to the beginning of the season and announced on this site.

2015 Draft Order

In keeping with tradition, the Draft Party will be held at a new location. This year it will be hosted in our nation’s capital at the league’s new center of operations in Old Town Alexandria, Virginia. Locals Air Jordy, Schoolya’gain, Eastside Forty-Ounces and Bagel Time will be in attendance. For anyone that wants to drive up, train up, or fly in, there is plenty of room. Bring yo’ ass. Draft date will likely be late morning on Saturday, September 5th.

League Dues have been updated to $40 per team. This small $15 increase allows us to double the reward to the top 4 winners at best. I may tweak this slightly to include rewards for Regular Season Champion and/or some of the other key accolades. See the League Dues tab for information on how to pay, the award breakout and tracking on who has paid / hasn’t paid. These are due sooner rather than later. I am an intolerant tyrant and I will arm the resistance. This is a pay-to-play league, and similar to last year, my peak of impatience is estimated to reach irreparable levels two weeks prior to the draft. One of you still owes last year’s dues. Just sayin’.

If you are not going to play this year, please do not sit on this decision. Do me the favor of letting me know sooner rather than later. No hard feelings, sincerely. I would always prefer that you sit out if you are not dedicated to the cause. There are certainly better things you can be doing with your time and I only want degenerates like myself committed to driving themselves insane each week.

Stay tuned for an upcoming post on the administrative changes to scoring and waiver wire priority we reviewed at the end of last season.

-The Commish

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Things Are Not What They Seem

Asterisk I spent the last two weeks occupied with an NFL Media team of system developers regarding an issue that cropped up with our 2014 league results. They were communicating with me while the NFL Draft was going on. It was pretty cool. The results of our troubleshooting were essentially equivalent to…finding out that Santa Claus isn’t real. This is going to be one of my most interesting and challenging posts to date. Buckle up.

Let’s go back to two weeks ago.

Over the weekend of April 25-26, I was closing the books on the 2014 season, as you know. I record game scores and some key stats each week throughout the season in an offline workbook. That weekend I reviewed all the results and stats to make sure everything was accurate. Once my audit was complete, I issued virtual trophies and updated TheLombardiThree.com. Hopefully you took some time to read the posts.

My last order of business on the season was to appraise our 2014 League Champion’s results and post an article on his season. That Sunday morning, April 26, the League Champion was no longer listed on NFL.com as Money Manziel – it now indicated that the White Wes Welkers had won. As a matter of fact, the entire results of the season changed overnight, not just the League Champion. See below.

2014 Altered Results

The only management setting I tweaked that weekend was the activation of some of the virtual trophies. Nothing else was touched. Once I saw these changes in the season results I immediately pulled out my record of the season and began my investigation. I discovered changes in the scores of 19 matchups over the entire season. One of which, in Week 12, resulted in a change in Win/Loss between Bagel Time and REDSKINS. The change in this single game completely altered the playoff standings, and ultimately the results of the season.

How the hell did this happen overnight?!?! This is the question I posed to NFL.com.

During the last two weeks, I worked closely with one of NFL Media’s reps and his developers to figure out what happened. There was a technical glitch. This discovery was both an education in how our stat corrections work over the season (there is a statute of limitations), and a shocking discovery that the results of every NFL Fantasy season are not what they seem. NFL.com’s finding is posted below.

Letter from NFL

These guys stuck with me working on this even after I told them to just forget it at one point. I highly respect them for both working patiently with me on this issue and for continuously reinforcing a positive relationship with the customer (us) at the same time. I was ready to pull the plug on this platform completely for our fantasy league. But after this encounter we’re sticking with em.

There are a few ways to look at this going forward.

(1) By including all of the statistical corrections throughout the season, past the statute of limitations setting, this hiccup altered the season to what some would argue were the true results. I have suggested to NFL.com that they make this a league setting that we can manage. I think we should include all stat corrections that come in past the 5-day statute of limitations, at least throughout the regular season. That is the most accurate outcome. And I think it would add a fun twist to the regular season.

Or,

(2) Our season originally ended exactly the way it should have. We have the league settings in place that we do to prevent season-altering systematic events to take place. There needs to be some sort of control over the weekly results, otherwise the league is basically on auto-pilot throughout the season. I have insisted that NFL.com change our results back to the way it was at the conclusion of the season.

No matter how you look at it, there is essentially an asterisk on every one of our seasons. There could be an unrecorded tackle, or unaccounted yard out there that may have affected the results of each one of our seasons in one way or another. Because of this incredibly coincidental timing, we were exposed to that reality. Kinda takes the grandeur out of it for me. For each one of us that won or lost a matchup by a mere point or two, who knows how your season truly ended up?

 

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Season 3 Trophies Have Been Issued

Season stats have been tabulated. Trophies have been issued. LockinUWL was the big winner with 6 trophies on the plus side including Best QB, Best RB, Best LB Performance and League Total Points. The big loser was last year’s champ, Reservations For Six. RFS shit trophy terds for Regular Season Loser, Single Game Low Score, and Least Points Scored on the season. Thanks for taking some of the heat off my lady, Schoolya’gain, for her 10-game losing streak. You were a very close second-to-last honey. You both sucked this year – seek counseling.

The trophy images are gooned up on the site. I will adjust them when NFL.com fixes their bugs. Click HERE to see your trophy case.

League Champion:  Money Manziel 8-8
2nd Place:  Eastside Forty-Ounces 10-6
3rd Place:  White Wes Welkers 10-6
League Total Points:  LockinUWL 3,016.95

Explosive Playoff Comeback:  Money Manziel +7 (From 8th to 1st)
Playoff Choke:  Air Jordy -7 (From 1st to 8th)

Regular Season Champion:  Air Jordy 10-3
Regular Season Total Points:  Air Jordy 2,473.60
Season High Score:  Eastside Forty-Ounces 262.00 (Week 14)
Longest Win Streak:  REDSKINS +6 (Weeks 7-12)

Regular Season Loser:  Reservations For Six 3-10
Longest Losing Streak:  Schoolya’gain -10 (Weeks 6-16)
Regular Season Low Score:  Reservations For Six 72.70 (Week 11)
Most Points Left on the Bench (Loss):  Packer Cave 134.50 (Week 14)
Dead Last:  Schoolya’gain 3-12
Least Points Scored:  Reservations For Six 2,222.10

Best overall QB:  LockinUWL 548.35 Aaron Rodgers
Best QB Performance:  LockinUWL 66.75 Aaron Rodgers (Week 10)

Best overall RB:  LockinUWL 387.50 Le’Veon Bell
Best RB Performance:  LockinUWL 49.50 Le’Veon Bell (Week 14)

Best overall WR:  REDSKINS 437.05 Antonio Brown
Best WR Performance:  Air Jordy 54.95 Jeremy Maclin (Week 8)

Best overall TE:  Lake Hickory Swallops 274.40 Rob Gronkowski
Best TE Performance:  Lake Hickory Swallops 45.90 Rob Gronkowski (Week 8)

Best overall K:  Packer Cave 170.00 Stephen Gostkowski
Best K Performance:  Packer Cave 21.00 Stephen Gostkowski (Week 5)

Best overall DEF:  Bagel Time 443.20 Buffalo Bills
Best DEF Performance:  White Wes Welkers 59.15 St. Louis Rams (Week 14)

Best overall LB:  Eastside Forty-Ounces 319.40 DeAndre Levy
Best LB Performance:  LockinUWL 36.00 Curtis Lofton (Week 14)

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TL3 QUARTERLY Volume 3 Issue 1

You Are Not Alone
Your running back is either (1) seriously injured, (2) facing an indefinite suspension, or (3) presently beating the shit out his fiancé, wife, mother, or one of a sundry of illegitimate children. This third scenario eventually placing him in scenario 2. He may even be beating the shit out of one of his colleagues on the field. There is nothing like the level of class and sportsmanship that comes with those millions of dollars in the NFL.

The only positive to come from all of this, fantasy-wise, is that you are not alone. The RB core has been debilitated over the first four weeks of play. Only a few of them were performing as expected anyway, so maybe we aren’t missing much. I don’t know. Maybe this hit too close to home for me – watching my #1 Draft Pick, again, go down early in a flaming heap of pathetic shit. Things are looking up though. Doug Martin made an appearance. Jamaal Charles looked like Jamaal Charles last night with 3 TDs against Belichick’s Brady Bunch. And word on the street is that we’ll see Rice, Peterson and Dwyer at some point this season. The NFL can’t keep a good criminal down.

PPR
More importantly, the first 4 weeks of play have shown that this is now a passing league and the Wide Receiver is king. The Point-Per-Reception (PPR) change this season has opened up a whole new level of scoring for us, and some longevity at that position’s value. This really does make sense – the tailback position has been devalued in recent years and there hasn’t been a running back drafted in the first round since 2012. Why not take advantage?

Breaking down the top 3 WRs and top TE for each team, let’s take a look at who has capitalized the most from this change. Some are doing more with less and some are not taking advantage of the available players out there. Reigning champ, RFS, can easily boost his PPR Strength from 155 to 139 with little to no effort. I hesitate saying that going in to Week 5 facing yours truly, but something must be said. 

PPR

Leaderboard
By Week 3 of our maiden season (2012) there were no undefeated teams. By Week 4 of last season (2013) everyone had a dink on their record. We are through 4 weeks in 2014 and still have 2 undefeated teams. Air Jordy and Packer Cave sit at the top of the leaderboard, tied for 1st at 4-0 with only 7.5 points separating them. These two dynamos are averaging 190 points per week, but the fact that they have faced the least amount of production to date shouldn’t worry the competition – yet. Air Jordy and Packer Cave’s opponents have scored a league-low average of 153 points and 143 points per week, respectively. This trend will likely continue for Air Jordy in Week 5 as he faces 12th-seated Reservations For Six. Packer Cave has a tougher matchup as he faces the 2-2 White Wes Welkers who have put up over 205 points twice in the last three weeks. 

Just one game back, IJamAllDay and E-40 at 3-1 have put up strong showings but both have had to endure losses to standout performances from Air Jordy and the Lake Hickory Swallops. The Swallops, taking down then undefeated IJAD, continue to improve each week, with production up 25% from Week 1. E-40 has worked the waiver wire intelligently and managed to scoop up every backup RB for the aforementioned core of RBs on the mend. We’ll have to see how this plays out for him. 

Speaking of waiver wire – did anyone notice a few weeks back when REDSKINS (formerly Genetic Black Jesus) stuck Josh Gordon in his back pocket? With Gordon’s suspension reduced to 10 weeks, versus the expected season-long hiatus, he will be available in Week 11. Being the #1 WR in 2013, this was essentially a bonus first-round draft pick for REDSKINS. Already having the 5th highest points in the league, and ranking 3rd in PPR strength, this pickup could wreak havoc on the last 6 matchups of the season. 

Don’t get discouraged yet. Don’t trade away your best players because you MAY get someone on the waiver wire. Don’t rely on NFL.com’s projections – they are shit. Do your homework. Don’t forget to utilize your two Reserve (RES) positions if needed. This allows for you to take any injured or suspended players and place them in a ‘Reserve’ spot in order to not have to drop them. This frees up that available space on your bench for a free agent. To bring that player back out of ‘Reserve’ you will obviously have to drop someone off your bench to make room for them. Only officially listed injured (IR) or suspended (SUS) players can be placed in Reserve. *I don’t agree with being able to place suspended players in Reserve, but I have no control of that feature. It’s two free spots, use them. 

Bye weeks are in play so pay extra attention to your lineups. Playing someone your best one week, then playing the next guy with 4 players on BYE is tremendously unfair to the other teams in the league, and violates the terms of the Constitution. Don’t be that guy.

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DRAFT REPORT CARDS

Nice work today everyone. According to NFL.com Schoolya’gain and REDSKINS are tied for first place (T1) post draft. You should have gotten your email by now. Share this jibberish with me so I can share with the world. I’ll add screen shots below as I receive them.

Don’t forget to submit your Ball Gazers this week in order to win a Bench Swap. Forms are due before Thursday night’s game.

 REDSKINS RCSchoolya'gain RCphoto 2 (2)photo 1photo 3photo 2 (1)photo (4)photo 1 (2)photo 1 (1)photo 2

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Draft Lottery Winner

The Live Draft will be Saturday morning August 30th at 11am eastern. That’s 8am for the west coasters and somewhere in between for you middle-America bozos. According to the TL3 calendar, that’s 7 days out. This is another reminder to GET – YOUR – SHIT – TOGETHER.

Air Jordy and Packer Cave have run a series of online and offline randomizers and the winner of the 1st Overall Draft Pick is….
MONEY MANZIEL

The rest of the teams fall in to place based on the rules of the Constitution. The following draft order can be reviewed on the league homepage under League / Draft Info. The Weekly Schedule was also randomized.

1. Money Manziel
2. Reservations For Six
3. Schoolya’gain
4. White Wes Welkers
5. Air Jordy
6. Bagel Time
7. IJamAllDay
8. Lake Hickory Swallops
9. REDSKINS
10. LockinUWL
11. Packer Cave
12. Eastside Forty-Ounces

I do have an update on league membership. We have discharged the Lincoln Co. Chavezes, Put a Bird On It and The Goonies to seek out professional help. Let’s face it, those cats had a problem. They were addicted to NOT playing fantasy football well. Keep up the average effort boys and girls.

We have subsequently added Eastside Forty-Ounces! E40 has several years of fantasy experience and will be tough competition. Don’t sleep on this FNG.

Correction: I have to amend last week’s post to clearly identify this year’s Draft Party MC. The Regal Beagles have updated their appellation to the White Wes Welkers. Clever play on words buddy (hint: Game of Thrones). Big fan of the show, so me likey. The NFC North would likely be on that side of the wall.

Hope all is well. Looking forward to the usual BS on Draft Day next Saturday. I got a pack of blacks and a beat cd, get yo’ freestyle ready.

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Bench Swaps and Ball Gazers

Last season I offered a free Bench Swap to the team that convinced last year’s trophy-winner, Reservations For Six, to choose their design as his new logo. RFS is not qualified for this offer. More to come on this. In the meantime, check out the new Bench Swaps page. Forms for weeks 1, 2 and 3 are up and available.

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2013 Trophy

Trophies have been awarded. See the attached images for this year’s winners. Hopefully we get some Instagram pics with the winners. #TL3

Thanks again for a great season.
-The Commish

TL3_2103_Trophysheet-page-0