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Chapter 1 – The Unmentionables

M’lords – In spite of my woolgathering o’er the tenth month of our makers, I assure you I was barely asleep at my post. As we draw the portieres closed, I take this time to descry the unmentionables.

Each week of the season, the gods (NFL.com) turned around and grabbed their ankles for their corporate overlords from Snickers, Tostitos and the KFC. If they put half the consideration in to the details of our draft as they did for these stale, banausic, bandwidth sucking citations, we would not be the homeless fantasy platform refugees we are. We are fantasy footballers without an island! Yet, I assure you that you are not uncared for. I will find us a home. The Lambda house at Adams College has space for most of us.

Back to the business at hand. This year’s unmentionables include:

The Snickers Hungriest Bench Award
Benching the top performing player that week.
UnLockin Yo Schtuff (won 5 times)
*Mind you, UYS had the top two QBs in the league. He was getting this shit for not playing the other guy, who also put up 40 points each week. Fuck man, I’d have a hard time deciding between Ryan and Rodgers each week too.

The Tostitos Unreal Combinations Award
Highest scoring two-player combination that week.
RGIII’s Company (won 4 times)
*This one is essentially inconsequential because the NFL.com algorithm was counting players on the bench. Stupid fucking programmers.

The Colonel’s KFC Golden Bucket Award
The team that leaves the most points on the bench that week.
Reason to Kerrigan (won 5 times)
*Again, this is babyfood coding. It’s counting the TOTAL points left on the bench, not the differential between your actual and ideal lineup. Nugatory my friends, nugatory.

The Top Player Award
The team that has the top scoring player that week.
Four teams hit this twice, and the rest of us each hit it once, with the exception of Reason to Kerrigan and Lake Hickory Swallops.
*I like this one. Makes sense, and as we see, almost everyone had a big week from one of our assets. This was 85.7% inspiring.

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The Stage is (pretty much) Set

Here is a look at the preliminary standings for our playoffs starting next week…barring any miracles.

2016-playoffs-2

Trouble Hunter was a lock at #1 no matter what happened. Congratulations boo. Now’s when it really gets good.

Assuming the plane from Indianapolis lands in New Jersey, Air Jordy will secure the #2 seed. With a four-way tie at 8-5, Air Jordy gets the nod for overall tiebreaker by matchup. He beat each of the other three teams for a heads up record of 3-0.

RGIII’s Company earns the next matchup tiebreaker (3rd seed) for beating both Bagel Time and Tannehill for President for a heads up record of 2-1.

Late bloomer, Tannehill for President, is tied for the best record over the last seven games at 5-2 (tied with Trouble Hunter). He picks up the 4th seed for splitting his matchups with RGIII and Bagel finishing at 1-2 overall.

Bagel Time wraps up the tiebreaker with the 5th seed for not taking care of business when it counted. He lost to all three teams during the regular season, including losses by 0.05 and 1.40 points, finishing with a heads up record of 0-3. Inches man.

Unlockin Yo Schtuff and Schoolya’gain finish the regular season at 7-6, and the matchup tiebreaker goes to Wisconsin’s Unlockin (6 seed) for his win in Week 12 over the Twin City’s own Schoolya’gain (7 seed). Feels good to be on top of a Viking – I know what I’m talking about.

The final playoff spot goes to one of two teams in a head-to-head matchup in Week 13. It’s winner take all. Unless Frank Gore puts up a 34.60 stat line, Wanted Dez or Alive will squeak in at 6-7, tied with The Whiteshadow. The matchup tiebreaker would put WDOA in at #8 and a lock for the playoffs in his rookie season with the Lombardi Three.

That leaves up to two teams in the consolation bracket eligible for a cash payout this season (gotta get 8 wins). Keep playing no matter what. That cash payout and the #4 draft pick next year are still up for grabs.

Last but not least, all of this could be thrown in to complete upheaval if Brandon Marshall and T.Y. Hilton GO THE FUCK OFF tonight. I highly welcome that chaos. If they just match their best weeks at 25.40 and 33.10, respectively, Marshall and Hilton will put together just enough damage to spin Bagel Time into a 0.35 point loss meltdown and leave one Jon Bon junkie shot through the heart. Standby to standby…

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Gettin’ Swappy in Here

Bagel Time: Looking forward to you using a Bench Swap to beat RGIII.

Air Jordy: Well. Looking forward to Zach Ertz putting up a donut would have been nicer.

Air Jordy: Fucking Jordan Reed. SMH.

RGIII’s Company’s dearest fans hit the airwaves Sunday night to discuss the fate of the reigning two-time champ’s matchup in Week 12 against Air Jordy. Utilizing his available Bench Swap, AJ could finish the week at 158.70, replacing Cameron Meredith in the Flex position with Donte Moncrief (144.10 – 3.90 + 18.50 = 158.70). This calculus puts the magic number for RGIII’s lone remaining point-getter, Flex TE Zach Ertz, at 18.95 in order for RGIII’s Company to lock in the win. This output would be a season high for Ertz, but lightning already struck once for RGIII’s Co. in Week 12.

RGIII’s premier TE, Jordan Reed, left the Redskins-Cowboys game shortly after the 1st quarter with a separated shoulder joint after only 2 receptions for 15 total yards (3.50 points). Riding a 3-game losing streak, this was the break Air Jordy needed. Freshly cortizoned, Reed would resurface at the end of the 3rd quarter to catch a 33-yard bomb from Cousins, followed by a 5-yard touchdown catch. Certainly dealing with the weight of the current Skins win-streak, Reed was not going to cut bait on a key division matchup against their most hated rival. He would go on to grab 6 more passes for 42 total yards and another touchdown to incinerate his first-half statline and put the pressure back on his Airness. Reed finished with 10 receptions for 95 yards and 2 TDs for 31.50 points. *There is 1 catch for 5 yards (1.50 points) that is unaccounted for in the play-by-play log which may come in as a stat correction later in the week, giving Air Jordy a little more breathing room.

Reed has dealt with injury in some form or another for most of his career and has yet to put together a full 16-week regular season. He is likely to miss a game or two going forward due to this injury, but as a beltway-local and a good steward of hometown sports, it has been awesome to watch the Redskins of late, especially a performance like this from Reed against a really good Super Bowl contender like Dallas.

Certainly lightning won’t strike twice for RGIII’s Tight Ends in Week 12 but the way this season has gone thus far anything can happen.

(Except to Trouble Hunter. Apparently nothing bad is going to happen to Trouble Hunter. Seriously, can we get one injury? Even if it’s the Kicker. Just one. We just want to feel something.)

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Hao Jiu Mei Jian

Yes, this is a TL3 blog post. Rare sighting this season, I know. Truth is, your league biographer has been completely consumed with a new gig and dropped anchor during the busiest time of the year. That combined with a lot of personal travel kept yours truly off the laptop. To top it off, there has been an enormous amount of turmoil in the league this year related to injuries and the impact thereof, leaving us languishing and wearied in winds of uncertainty. The league standings reeling to and fro like grain fields swaying in the breeze; so heavy upon them the disappointment of their ever-changing rosters. An injury plagued season does not bode well for a 14-team league – something that was insufficiently considered with the re-expansion this season.

Having had time on my side, I’m not sure the weekly commentary would have held much weight or importance to it. The only permanence in the league has come from one team, Trouble Hunter. This fantasy rookie has thoroughly dominated this season and held an unrelenting half nelson on lady luck like no other team in league history. To date, TH has scored an average of 186 points per week, has players ranked in the top 7 at every position, with the exception of Kicker, and leads 3 out of 4 coaching metrics. In unprecedented fashion, TH still maintains 12 of 16 draft picks including 11 of the top 12 picks as healthy starters. No other team in the league can boast this level of good fortune. The chart below measures your wins against the reverberation of your draft picks.

week-10-players-remaining

Of note, reigning two-time regular season champion, Air Jordy, has had their roster completely decimated this season, retaining only 4 of the original 16 players drafted. Fortunately for AJ, they have faced the least amount of competition in the league to date and narrowly escaped with six wins, including an overturned win by 0.05 points (lowest in league history) in Week 3 after late stat corrections.

With a 5-way tie for second place and more than half the league only a game apart, playoff spots are still up for grabs for every team in the league. Although, teams looking to play the long game may possibly start thinking about next season. I want to remind you that this season we officially implemented the ability to utilize future draft picks as acquisition value. To support this type transaction I offer the following optional supplement to The Lombardi Three Constitution.

16.1.4 – The Big Short: Bearish traders may include an option as value to their trade deals. The option reduces the draft pick by one (1) round for each week (full game) the player acquired is injured and does not play, for a maximum of five (5) rounds. Suspension, partial games played, or poor performance are not valid against the option. E.g., Player A is traded for a 3rd round draft pick including the option. If the player misses 2 weeks due to injury, the draft pick drops to the 5th round. If the player misses the rest of the season the draft pick drops a maximum of five (5) rounds to the 8th round. This supplement is optional and must be specifically included in the trade deal.

Another trade issue arose this season that officially needs to be addressed. Due to current systematic restrictions on the NFL.com platform, the trade execution window of one (1) day is regularly stalled for an additional day due to what time of day the trade is officially accepted. For example, if a trade is accepted on Wednesday morning, the 1-day trade window does not officially start until the beginning of the next full day, Thursday, pushing the application of the trade until Friday morning. This makes it especially difficult to complete a trade for players competing on Thursday night games. The following amendment to The Lombardi Three Constitution supports this and potentially related scenarios, allowing for the teams involved to have their trade expedited.

16.2 – Hammer Time: Upon request, the League Manager has the ability to cut the red tape and expedite any accepted trade that has passed a 24-hour rejection window. The request must come from both teams involved. Manual adjustment to the team lineups will be made once the trade takes effect.

Looking ahead, we are facing the potential for playoff seeds being determined by tiebreaker, so I’m looking forward to covering the parade of make-or-break scenarios. I’ve been reading up on some new fantasy platforms including some unfranchised, private, pay-to-play platforms. Without doubt, we will never play another season on NFL.com. Additionally, five years of action, and the overall physical nature of the NFL, have confirmed that we are better with a 12-team lineup. How we incorporate reductions are TBD at a much later date. With that in mind, stop thinking, let things happen, and be the ball.

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Ball Gazer Results

Ball Gazer Results for 2016 have been posted to the Bench Swaps page. Each of the three weeks had one team missing the cut by a single game, with a notable Week 1 by RGIII’s Company at 13-3. Let’s not lose sight though of how much he sucked thereafter. Especially impressive, Schoolya’gain led the bunch with an average of double-digit (+10) successful picks each week. Take the value of that and add $3, and she can get herself a nice bowl of soup. The Whiteshadow couldn’t manage to break the .500 mark in the first two outings, so he must have wiped his ass with week three’s form. Tannehill for President and Bagel Time also stunk it up, but they keep expectations low to stay off of anyone’s lodestar. Don’t worry boys, no one noticed.

In summary, there are no winners this season. Till next year.

A copy of the results has been provided below with accompanying legend.

bg-results

legend

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Mr. Falcon

We may have a winner. As it stands there is one team that is sitting at 11-4 with the Monday night game to go. Pick: Saints. There are currently two teams with Bench Swaps in their back pockets (carried over from previous seasons). If you don’t want to face a third team with the unrelenting ability to chop off your head this season, I’d don that A-Town black and red tonight, break out the chicken-n-beer, put on some Ludacris, pour some O’E’ 800 on the block, give a big shout out to Buckhead, where old money lives and new money parties, and pray to the Falcon gods!

2-tommy_nobis_2

Or beseech Mr. Falcon himself, Tommy Nobis. In November 1965, Nobis became the first player drafted by the expansion Atlanta Falcons. The Houston Oilers also selected him in the AFL draft. This presented a dilemma and sparked a debate that reached as far as outer space when astronaut Frank Borman, aboard Gemini 7, talked back to earth with the message, “tell Nobis to sign with Houston.” (Borman’s sons were ball boys for the Oilers.) Nobis instead signed with Atlanta on December 14 and became the first member of the Atlanta Falcons, gaining the nickname “Mr. Falcon.”

Falcons great Tommy Nobis

Nobis holds an NFL record for 294 tackles and 12 interceptions in a rookie season. In eleven professional seasons he led the Falcons in tackles nine times, went to five Pro Bowls, was named All-Pro twice and was chosen for the NFL’s “All-Decade Team” for the 1960s. Beyond that, good luck trying to figure out Nobis’s true impact, because the stat lines aren’t really out there. The NFL didn’t start recording sacks for individual players until 1982, and his tackle numbers are lost to time. Probably why he is not in the NFL Hall of Fame today. Though you can mount a fair and reasonable case that he’s the greatest player Atlanta has ever known.

The rest of us are 86’d so on to this week’s results (minus tonight’s matchup)…

11-4
Trouble Hunter

10-5
Schoolya’gain

8-7
Bagel Time
IJamAllDay
White Wes Welkers

7-8
Air Jordy
Eastside Forty-Ounces
Lake Hickory Swallops
Reason to Kerrigan

6-9
Tannehill for President

5-10
RGIII’s Company
Unlockin Yo Schtuff
Wanted Dez or Alive

1-14
The Whiteshadow

Highlights: The Packers, Dolphins and Panthers were consensus picks – including Teddy B’s bae, Schoolya’gain, betting against her victorious Vikings. The only two teams to correctly pick the Bills were the two girls in our league – also the top two finishers this week. Unlockin Yo Schtuff and Wanted Dez or Alive were the only two teams to pick the 49ers over the Seahawks – and subsequently finish dead last. Yes, The Whiteshadow finished at 1-14 but he was also 100%. He only picked the Thursday night game. Lake Hickory Swallops was the only team that correctly picked the Eagles to win, but he also picked every home game with the exception of the Bills and Patriots, so there’s that. Lastly, RGIII’s Company was the only squad to throw the Bears a bone.

According to Jason Diamond of Rolling Stone, in the last decade, there has possibly been no bigger destroyer of football dreams than Jay Cuter of the Chicago Bears. Check out this article.

Thanks for your Ball Gazer participation this season ladies and gentleman. I for one am glad this shit is over.

Go Falcons!

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Ball Gazers – Week 1 Results

rgiiiFull disclosure – no one made the cut, so the following audit does not include the two Monday night games.

I have to say – not a bad showing, even though we were all nixed by the conclusion of the 1pm games with the exception of this week’s best in show, RGIII’s Company. Our two-time league champ had picked every game except the Bucs, Lions and Patriots. He had to wait out the late game last night to see if he was still in it. Oh wait, our champ lives in California. The late game is only punishment for the rest of us.

Ironically, the one and only team to pick the Patriots to win the late game was the only guy to ever drop $99.99 on the Bill Belichick Business School VHS catalog, White Wes Welkers. Seriously brochacho, no one picked the Pats to win. That has got to feel good.

On to the results:

11-3
RGIII’s Company

10-4
Air Jordy

9-5
Reason to Kerrigan
Schoolya’gain
White Wes Welkers

8-6
Eastside Forty-Ounces
IJamAllDay
Lake Hickory Swallops

7-7
Bagel Time
Tannehill for President
The Whiteshadow
Trouble Hunter
Unlockin Yo Schtuff

6-8
Wanted Dez or Alive

Highlights:
The only 2 teams to pick the Broncos to beat the Panthers were RGII’s Company and Reason to Kerrigan. Eastside Forty-Ounces was the only team to not pick the Browns to lose. The fuck? Schoolya’gain was the only team that hoped the Chargers would win. Pro tip honeybun (i.e., mansplaining) – just because you drafted Philip Rivers, picking the Chargers to win on your Ball Gazer form will not positively influence his in-game performance. The only two winners that everyone was sure of were the Packers and Seahawks. Schoolya’gain on the highlight reel again with the solo Lions pick (probably has their LB or something). Nice job though boo. As for the Monday night games, the picks are varied. Go Skins!

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2016 DRAFT

ABAs promised here are the draft ingredients.

WHEN: The Live Draft will be held on Sunday, September 4th at 11:00am EDT. There are still only 4 time zones in the continental US under the current administration, so the math remains the same – that’s 10:00am for all cheese spongers, and 8:00am for the plate tectonics on the left coast.

League veteran, Holy Cross alum, Tom Brady reach-around world record holder, and Mr. Special Treatment himself, White Wes Welkers, will be somewhere in the Pacific Ocean between Honolulu and Darwin (Australia). Let’s all send my man Copper Pipe some good juju from the land of the big PX. Getting online for the draft from the USS Coronado will likely be a deployment in itself. Our thoughts and best wishes are with you my friend. You are the HMFIC – send up a balloon, make it happen.

WHERE: The Live Draft will be held in Virginia Beach at newcomer Reason to Kerrigan’s beach bungalow in the sun. All team owners are invited to attend. League Manager will set up the usual Google Hangout beforehand for pre-draft high jinks and chicanery. Champagne coolies will be flowin’ like hot oil out of the rear main seal of a ’66 Dodge Polara. You know what I’m talkin’ bout dog. Any team owner that shows up on a beach/street cruiser has all post-draft cocktails paid for by the League Commissioner. Bike-gang after-party TBD.

WHO: This is it. The Draft order is set. Using multiple offline and online randomizers, multiple team owners set in to motion the 2016 Draft Lottery for the first overall pick. Based on the rules of The Lombardi Three Constitution, this year’s first overall draft pick is…

AIR JORDY

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I don’t want to hear it. Multiple team owners participated in the process. Get over it. The rest of the Draft order is set below. Remember we draft in snake format, reversing the order each round. The Lombardi Three Constitution is your point of reference. You should all have a copy on you at all times.

Draft Order

Stay tuned for the 2016 Bench Swap Forms and another friendly reminder or two to PAY YOUR DUES. Do your homework, keep your nose clean, and say your novenas to whatever fantasy football god you curse on Sundays. From here on out you’re on your own…

-The Commish

MTL3GA

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The 8 Seed

No matter what happens in Week 13, non-colluding lovebirds, Air Jordy and Schoolya’gain, will finish #1 and #2, respectively. Air Jordy will repeat as Regular Season Champion and this will serve as the only recognition thereof. The real party is just getting started.

Playoff seeds #3 through #6 will be mixed based on the results of Week 13. If you currently reside in one of these 4 positions in the league standings, you will certainly make the playoffs in one of these 4 spots.

Playoff seed #7 and #8 will not have it that easy. As we all know, the #8 seed dethroned the #1 seed in the first round of the playoffs last season and went on to win the league championship. That #8 seed is still up for grabs and the potential for history to repeat itself rests in the hands of 5 teams. I have broken down the 8 scenarios in Week 13 that will determine who gets a crack at the title.

Our current standings tiebreaker is set to Head to Head (H2H) record. The secondary tiebreaker is ‘Total Points For’ (the total points a team scored across the season). There are 2 primary results, each with 4 scenarios that determine who the #8 seed will be. The 2 primary results are essentially who wins and who loses the RGIII’s Company vs. Lake Hickory Swallops matchup.

Primary Result 1 – RGIII’s Company wins. Lake Hickory Swallops loses.
In the 4 scenarios outlined below, Lake Hickory Swallops will retain the #8 seed based on the H2H record between the two tied teams at 5-8 in Scenarios 1 and 3, and the Total Points For where the H2H records offset each other (each of the 3 teams at 5-8 in Scenarios 2 and 4 beat each other once, i.e., LHS 1-1, PC 1-1, T4VP 1-1). I place an asterisk next to the Points tiebreaker because LHS only has a 32.75 Total Points advantage over T4VP. If T4VP’s results in Week 13 exceed LHS’s results by this margin (very possible), then T4VP could win the tiebreaker. This is the only scenario T4VP makes the playoffs.
Simplified: If LHS loses, he better hope T4VP doesn’t outscore him by 32.75 points. Otherwise he’s in.

8 Seed Result 1

Primary Result 2 – Lake Hickory Swallops wins, RGIII’s Company loses.
This was a must-win for RG3. If he loses, he does not have a chance at the playoffs. In Scenarios 5 through 8 outlined below, the winner of the Packer Cave and Ya Down With ODBJ matchup takes the #8 seed based simply on the H2H records.
Simplified: RG3 and T4VP guaranteed out. Winner of PC vs. YD matchup is in.

8 Seed Result 2

*By the way, if Ya Down with ODBJ wins, his H2H tiebreaker with RG3 in Scenarios 5 and 8 was a result of the Week 4 matchup between the 2 teams where YD wins by the smallest possible margin, 0.10 points (142.20 – 142.30). I’ll say it again – that is a single yard for any player on the roster. Fucking inches man.

I do have a caveat to this analysis, especially with Primary Result 1. There is no official setting for a 3-way tiebreaker, like we have in Scenarios 2 and 4, and I have to assume that the tiebreaker goes to the ‘Total Points For’ as this is the secondary option. If the results end up different than what I have outlined, I will certainly investigate what the actual system settings determined and either provide justification or rectification. Either way, we will make sure the #8 spot is accurately and fairly seeded.

Go forth. Do what you do.
-The Commish

“A team that thinks it’s going to lose is going to lose.”
-Vince Lombardi

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Rest of Season (ROS) Analysis – Post Week 10

Here’s a quickie.

ROS Analysis post Week 10

Strength by Position (updated): Based on the rest of your matchups, to include the anticipated playoff standings and projected matchup results, each one of these positions is stronger than your scheduled opponents. Don’t forget, this analysis takes in to consideration future matchups – not only your fantasy opponent, but the NFL matchups you and your fantasy opponent’s face.

Improvement: Based on the ROS I put together in Week 7, this is the change in Projected Finish. This takes in to consideration injuries (…Bell), the acquisitions you made over the last few weeks, and overall player improvement/decline (…Manning). Some rookies are finally getting their shot and showing their full potential (…Langford).

Again, continue to improve in those point-heavy, ball-catching positions you are short in. This is the last week of BYEs. After this week, dump the dead weight and diversify your bench, or use some of that stock to trade up. There were some studied shifts for a few teams, so continue to work it. Pull up the Depth Charts on the League home page and see who needs/has what. If after Week 11 you are still holding 2 Kickers and/or 2 Linebackers, you are doing it wrong.

This was our second lowest scoring week of the season at 1,932.65 (low: Week 4 – 1,809.15, high: Week 7 – 2,095.40) so I’m sure everyone was a little depressed with their results. Don’t overlook the lynching by the Tannehill Boys, with RB’s West and Langford combining for 68.30 points. And with Romo expected back this week, his favorite target, Dez Bryant, will start to get his. Keep an eye out yo.

The standings are so tight right now that you are only 1 win away from the next tier. Remember the top 8 teams make the playoffs. Top 4 cash out. Get that money dawg.

-The Commish