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POSTLIMINARY WEEK 4

We are officially a quarter of the way through the season and I have no earthly idea how any team in this league, or any NFL team for that matter, is going to end up this year. I got nothing. The NFL and the state of Texas have no clue what to do with Ezekiel Elliott, the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills have now beaten the Broncos and Falcons in back-to-back weeks, and Kirk Cousins is channeling his inner RG3 as he’s led the Redskins in rushing yards in three of four games this season. This all just feels out of sorts. I think the results of the Ball Gazer submissions each week were evidence of that. Week 3 was so bad I didn’t even post the results (as a group we were borderline .500). Trouble Hunter flirted with destiny in Week 2 (13-3), which would have ordinarily earned her a Bench Swap in any other season, but her domestic partner already deprived her of that luxury.

Usually there are indicators at this point in the season of some league playoff contenders, dynamic lineups, strong defenses, and deep benches. Or worse yet, obvious duds, poor drafting, someone you hate, domestic violence, broken families, and even a DUI or two. We got none of that. Shit, the teams with the two worst report cards after the draft have the most points in the league to date.

The turmoil continued in Week 4 as five out of the top seven squads lost and five out of the bottom seven won. The battle of the 0-3s drew to a close with IJamAllDay victorious, leaving Reason to Kerrigan the only squad left without a W. But RTK’s 0-4 record has a huge asterisk next to it, being the victim of a bench swap in Week 2. RTK has also faced the toughest competition opposing the second most ‘Points Against’ to date. Christian’s Brothers is the only undefeated team left, but this squad has also been the beneficiary of the weakest competition in the league through the first four weeks, having faced the least amount of ‘Points Against’ in the league by 166 points. That’s just ridiculous. That’s kinda like getting spotted 41.5 points each week before the game even starts. No one should be concerned though, as this won’t last. CB is 22-25 over his career.

Circling back on the ‘Balls’ and ‘Swaps’ discussion, we need to take care of a little admin. The unplanned BYE in Week 1 for the Bucs and Dolphins unveiled a void in our ruleset. You don’t know you need a rule for something, until you need a rule for something, and you know what that means. I have modified the language in our Constitution to address this issue should it arise again. If any NFL games are cancelled or postponed during Week 1, the win requirement is set to 85% correct picks, assuming picks are submitted for each game being played. If Amendment 13.5.1 – Shrinking Balls takes effect and any NFL games are cancelled or postponed during Week 2, the win requirement is set to 78% correct picks, and if any NFL games are cancelled or postponed during Week 3, the win requirement is further set to 71% correct picks, again, assuming picks are submitted for each game being played. This will cover us in the event something like this comes up again.

BYE weeks come in to play in Week 5. The Falcons, Broncos, Saints, and Redskins are off.

-The Commish

Single Game League Leaders
QB – Tom Brady (46.50 points in Week 3) – Unlockin’ Yo Schtuff
RB – Kareem Hunt (44.60 points in Week 1) – Air Jordy
WR – Stefon Diggs (37.30 points in Week 3) – IJamAllDay
TE – Jason Witten (25.70 points in Week 2) – Schoolya’gain
K – Matt Prater & Stephen Hauschka (19.00 points in Week 3) – Wanted Dez or Alive & Trouble Hunter
DEF – Jacksonville (49.70 points in Week 1) – Schoolya’gain
LB – Bobby Wagner (16.60 points in Week 4) – Reason to Kerrigan
HIGH SCORE – Wanted Dez or Alive (212.45 points in Week 3)

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Pre-Draft Subliminal Messaging

As a result of last season’s trade for Le’Veon Bell, I have modified the Round 3 Draft Order. Yahoo has allowed me to transfer Air Jordy’s 3rd Round pick to Wanted Dez or Alive, giving him two picks in Round 3. See screenshot below.

I’ve conducted multiple live mock Yahoo drafts on both the laptop and the iPhone. They worked like a charm. For any teams new to Yahoo, please try one this weekend on whatever device you plan to use for the draft. It’s great practice for Sunday and you can get a good idea of who you will end up with in the first few rounds.

Remember to sign on early.

Jiggle your router connection. Make sure that shit aint loose.

Organize your notes. Or, just wing it. I think you’ll be fine.

Refill your cocktail.

Draft is Noon (12pm) eastern.

Yahoo, be good to us please….

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FINALS

The final week of the season and the Playoff Finals are here.

Unlockin Yo Schtuff (6) 9-6
vs.
Tannehill for President (4) 10-5

A Packer-backer and TL3 OG is in the finals! Unlockin Yo Schtuff has been up and down, unable to put a win streak together all season. Unlockin strung two wins together in weeks 1 and 2 and hadn’t repeated that feat until the past two weeks. However, he is averaging 160.93 points (5th) on the season, 162.98 points (1st) in the playoffs, and has a season high of 188.70 points (9th) in week 8.

TL3 sophomore, Tannehill for President, is riding a league-leading 8-2 record over the last 10 weeks and averaging 168.96 points per week (2nd) over this time frame, including his season high of 208.20 points (4th) in week 6. On the season T4P has a slight edge on Unlockin at 162.60 points per week (4th), but has only put together an average of 153.88 points (3rd) in the playoffs.

The last time these two teams met in week 11, Tannehill edged Unlockin by a mere 3 points. The final score was 171.65 to 168.65.

PAYDAY

I have to say, I think this little pay structure realignment/experiment seems to have worked out. The #1 overall seed didn’t run away with it, but will still walk away with a really nice return (at least $130). We certainly can’t say the same for the last two Regular Season Champions (cough, cough, same guy)…

For now we have at least six teams in the money with the potential for three more to hit pay dirt. Schoolya’gain and Wanted Dez or Alive each need one more win to reach the league minimum. If Schoolya’ wins, she simply earns back half her league dues and a 7th place finish. Wanted is in the 3rd place matchup with Air Jordy and is not only playing for his eighth win; this final W will also net him the Playoff 3rd Place Bonus. With a win, he earns almost all of his dues back. A loss, and he gets nothing but the extra 3rd round draft pick he already takes with him into next season.

The Whiteshadow and Eastside Forty-Ounces are both vying for their eighth win and the Consolation Bracket trophy (9th place). The Consolation Bracket winner is guaranteed the 4th round draft pick next year so there is much to play for in this matchup. The last time these two teams met in week 10, Whiteshadow dismantled Eastside by more than 40 points and didn’t leave a single point on the bench. The final score was 167.05 to 126.80.

LOMBARDI LEGENDS

ll2

Last but not least, there are a few teams whose final game will determine if they make the cut for next season’s Lombardi Legends league. Trouble Hunter and Tannehill for President are a lock. Unlockin and Air Jordy can snag the last two spots with a win. Bagel Time has a chance to take the fourth spot under three out of eight potential win-loss scenarios between these three teams. See below.

ll-scenarios

In Scenarios 2 and 7, if Air Jordy Loses and Bagel Time wins, Bagel takes the fourth spot no matter what. The tiebreaker for Lombardi Legends is total points and both Bagel and Unlockin have sizeable leads over Air Jordy. In Scenario 6, Unlockin will lose the 4th spot with wins by Air Jordy and Bagel, unless his total points for the week are 56.75 points more than Bagel Time’s total. This is not that far-fetched. The spread over 15 weeks of play averages 94.40 points. The high end of the spread is 151.30 taking place in week 3 (Bagel Time 235.55 – Wanted Dez or Alive 84.25), and the low end of the spread is 65.90 occurring last week in week 15 (Trouble Hunter 179.40 – Wanted Dez or Alive 113.50).

Next time you hear from me, we will have crowned our 5th Champion. And in honor of our 5th anniversary I am upping the ante on our league trophy. More to come. Finish strong.

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The Stage is (pretty much) Set

Here is a look at the preliminary standings for our playoffs starting next week…barring any miracles.

2016-playoffs-2

Trouble Hunter was a lock at #1 no matter what happened. Congratulations boo. Now’s when it really gets good.

Assuming the plane from Indianapolis lands in New Jersey, Air Jordy will secure the #2 seed. With a four-way tie at 8-5, Air Jordy gets the nod for overall tiebreaker by matchup. He beat each of the other three teams for a heads up record of 3-0.

RGIII’s Company earns the next matchup tiebreaker (3rd seed) for beating both Bagel Time and Tannehill for President for a heads up record of 2-1.

Late bloomer, Tannehill for President, is tied for the best record over the last seven games at 5-2 (tied with Trouble Hunter). He picks up the 4th seed for splitting his matchups with RGIII and Bagel finishing at 1-2 overall.

Bagel Time wraps up the tiebreaker with the 5th seed for not taking care of business when it counted. He lost to all three teams during the regular season, including losses by 0.05 and 1.40 points, finishing with a heads up record of 0-3. Inches man.

Unlockin Yo Schtuff and Schoolya’gain finish the regular season at 7-6, and the matchup tiebreaker goes to Wisconsin’s Unlockin (6 seed) for his win in Week 12 over the Twin City’s own Schoolya’gain (7 seed). Feels good to be on top of a Viking – I know what I’m talking about.

The final playoff spot goes to one of two teams in a head-to-head matchup in Week 13. It’s winner take all. Unless Frank Gore puts up a 34.60 stat line, Wanted Dez or Alive will squeak in at 6-7, tied with The Whiteshadow. The matchup tiebreaker would put WDOA in at #8 and a lock for the playoffs in his rookie season with the Lombardi Three.

That leaves up to two teams in the consolation bracket eligible for a cash payout this season (gotta get 8 wins). Keep playing no matter what. That cash payout and the #4 draft pick next year are still up for grabs.

Last but not least, all of this could be thrown in to complete upheaval if Brandon Marshall and T.Y. Hilton GO THE FUCK OFF tonight. I highly welcome that chaos. If they just match their best weeks at 25.40 and 33.10, respectively, Marshall and Hilton will put together just enough damage to spin Bagel Time into a 0.35 point loss meltdown and leave one Jon Bon junkie shot through the heart. Standby to standby…

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Hao Jiu Mei Jian

Yes, this is a TL3 blog post. Rare sighting this season, I know. Truth is, your league biographer has been completely consumed with a new gig and dropped anchor during the busiest time of the year. That combined with a lot of personal travel kept yours truly off the laptop. To top it off, there has been an enormous amount of turmoil in the league this year related to injuries and the impact thereof, leaving us languishing and wearied in winds of uncertainty. The league standings reeling to and fro like grain fields swaying in the breeze; so heavy upon them the disappointment of their ever-changing rosters. An injury plagued season does not bode well for a 14-team league – something that was insufficiently considered with the re-expansion this season.

Having had time on my side, I’m not sure the weekly commentary would have held much weight or importance to it. The only permanence in the league has come from one team, Trouble Hunter. This fantasy rookie has thoroughly dominated this season and held an unrelenting half nelson on lady luck like no other team in league history. To date, TH has scored an average of 186 points per week, has players ranked in the top 7 at every position, with the exception of Kicker, and leads 3 out of 4 coaching metrics. In unprecedented fashion, TH still maintains 12 of 16 draft picks including 11 of the top 12 picks as healthy starters. No other team in the league can boast this level of good fortune. The chart below measures your wins against the reverberation of your draft picks.

week-10-players-remaining

Of note, reigning two-time regular season champion, Air Jordy, has had their roster completely decimated this season, retaining only 4 of the original 16 players drafted. Fortunately for AJ, they have faced the least amount of competition in the league to date and narrowly escaped with six wins, including an overturned win by 0.05 points (lowest in league history) in Week 3 after late stat corrections.

With a 5-way tie for second place and more than half the league only a game apart, playoff spots are still up for grabs for every team in the league. Although, teams looking to play the long game may possibly start thinking about next season. I want to remind you that this season we officially implemented the ability to utilize future draft picks as acquisition value. To support this type transaction I offer the following optional supplement to The Lombardi Three Constitution.

16.1.4 – The Big Short: Bearish traders may include an option as value to their trade deals. The option reduces the draft pick by one (1) round for each week (full game) the player acquired is injured and does not play, for a maximum of five (5) rounds. Suspension, partial games played, or poor performance are not valid against the option. E.g., Player A is traded for a 3rd round draft pick including the option. If the player misses 2 weeks due to injury, the draft pick drops to the 5th round. If the player misses the rest of the season the draft pick drops a maximum of five (5) rounds to the 8th round. This supplement is optional and must be specifically included in the trade deal.

Another trade issue arose this season that officially needs to be addressed. Due to current systematic restrictions on the NFL.com platform, the trade execution window of one (1) day is regularly stalled for an additional day due to what time of day the trade is officially accepted. For example, if a trade is accepted on Wednesday morning, the 1-day trade window does not officially start until the beginning of the next full day, Thursday, pushing the application of the trade until Friday morning. This makes it especially difficult to complete a trade for players competing on Thursday night games. The following amendment to The Lombardi Three Constitution supports this and potentially related scenarios, allowing for the teams involved to have their trade expedited.

16.2 – Hammer Time: Upon request, the League Manager has the ability to cut the red tape and expedite any accepted trade that has passed a 24-hour rejection window. The request must come from both teams involved. Manual adjustment to the team lineups will be made once the trade takes effect.

Looking ahead, we are facing the potential for playoff seeds being determined by tiebreaker, so I’m looking forward to covering the parade of make-or-break scenarios. I’ve been reading up on some new fantasy platforms including some unfranchised, private, pay-to-play platforms. Without doubt, we will never play another season on NFL.com. Additionally, five years of action, and the overall physical nature of the NFL, have confirmed that we are better with a 12-team lineup. How we incorporate reductions are TBD at a much later date. With that in mind, stop thinking, let things happen, and be the ball.

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Ball Gazer Results

Ball Gazer Results for 2016 have been posted to the Bench Swaps page. Each of the three weeks had one team missing the cut by a single game, with a notable Week 1 by RGIII’s Company at 13-3. Let’s not lose sight though of how much he sucked thereafter. Especially impressive, Schoolya’gain led the bunch with an average of double-digit (+10) successful picks each week. Take the value of that and add $3, and she can get herself a nice bowl of soup. The Whiteshadow couldn’t manage to break the .500 mark in the first two outings, so he must have wiped his ass with week three’s form. Tannehill for President and Bagel Time also stunk it up, but they keep expectations low to stay off of anyone’s lodestar. Don’t worry boys, no one noticed.

In summary, there are no winners this season. Till next year.

A copy of the results has been provided below with accompanying legend.

bg-results

legend

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Mr. Falcon

We may have a winner. As it stands there is one team that is sitting at 11-4 with the Monday night game to go. Pick: Saints. There are currently two teams with Bench Swaps in their back pockets (carried over from previous seasons). If you don’t want to face a third team with the unrelenting ability to chop off your head this season, I’d don that A-Town black and red tonight, break out the chicken-n-beer, put on some Ludacris, pour some O’E’ 800 on the block, give a big shout out to Buckhead, where old money lives and new money parties, and pray to the Falcon gods!

2-tommy_nobis_2

Or beseech Mr. Falcon himself, Tommy Nobis. In November 1965, Nobis became the first player drafted by the expansion Atlanta Falcons. The Houston Oilers also selected him in the AFL draft. This presented a dilemma and sparked a debate that reached as far as outer space when astronaut Frank Borman, aboard Gemini 7, talked back to earth with the message, “tell Nobis to sign with Houston.” (Borman’s sons were ball boys for the Oilers.) Nobis instead signed with Atlanta on December 14 and became the first member of the Atlanta Falcons, gaining the nickname “Mr. Falcon.”

Falcons great Tommy Nobis

Nobis holds an NFL record for 294 tackles and 12 interceptions in a rookie season. In eleven professional seasons he led the Falcons in tackles nine times, went to five Pro Bowls, was named All-Pro twice and was chosen for the NFL’s “All-Decade Team” for the 1960s. Beyond that, good luck trying to figure out Nobis’s true impact, because the stat lines aren’t really out there. The NFL didn’t start recording sacks for individual players until 1982, and his tackle numbers are lost to time. Probably why he is not in the NFL Hall of Fame today. Though you can mount a fair and reasonable case that he’s the greatest player Atlanta has ever known.

The rest of us are 86’d so on to this week’s results (minus tonight’s matchup)…

11-4
Trouble Hunter

10-5
Schoolya’gain

8-7
Bagel Time
IJamAllDay
White Wes Welkers

7-8
Air Jordy
Eastside Forty-Ounces
Lake Hickory Swallops
Reason to Kerrigan

6-9
Tannehill for President

5-10
RGIII’s Company
Unlockin Yo Schtuff
Wanted Dez or Alive

1-14
The Whiteshadow

Highlights: The Packers, Dolphins and Panthers were consensus picks – including Teddy B’s bae, Schoolya’gain, betting against her victorious Vikings. The only two teams to correctly pick the Bills were the two girls in our league – also the top two finishers this week. Unlockin Yo Schtuff and Wanted Dez or Alive were the only two teams to pick the 49ers over the Seahawks – and subsequently finish dead last. Yes, The Whiteshadow finished at 1-14 but he was also 100%. He only picked the Thursday night game. Lake Hickory Swallops was the only team that correctly picked the Eagles to win, but he also picked every home game with the exception of the Bills and Patriots, so there’s that. Lastly, RGIII’s Company was the only squad to throw the Bears a bone.

According to Jason Diamond of Rolling Stone, in the last decade, there has possibly been no bigger destroyer of football dreams than Jay Cuter of the Chicago Bears. Check out this article.

Thanks for your Ball Gazer participation this season ladies and gentleman. I for one am glad this shit is over.

Go Falcons!

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Ball Gazers – Week 1 Results

rgiiiFull disclosure – no one made the cut, so the following audit does not include the two Monday night games.

I have to say – not a bad showing, even though we were all nixed by the conclusion of the 1pm games with the exception of this week’s best in show, RGIII’s Company. Our two-time league champ had picked every game except the Bucs, Lions and Patriots. He had to wait out the late game last night to see if he was still in it. Oh wait, our champ lives in California. The late game is only punishment for the rest of us.

Ironically, the one and only team to pick the Patriots to win the late game was the only guy to ever drop $99.99 on the Bill Belichick Business School VHS catalog, White Wes Welkers. Seriously brochacho, no one picked the Pats to win. That has got to feel good.

On to the results:

11-3
RGIII’s Company

10-4
Air Jordy

9-5
Reason to Kerrigan
Schoolya’gain
White Wes Welkers

8-6
Eastside Forty-Ounces
IJamAllDay
Lake Hickory Swallops

7-7
Bagel Time
Tannehill for President
The Whiteshadow
Trouble Hunter
Unlockin Yo Schtuff

6-8
Wanted Dez or Alive

Highlights:
The only 2 teams to pick the Broncos to beat the Panthers were RGII’s Company and Reason to Kerrigan. Eastside Forty-Ounces was the only team to not pick the Browns to lose. The fuck? Schoolya’gain was the only team that hoped the Chargers would win. Pro tip honeybun (i.e., mansplaining) – just because you drafted Philip Rivers, picking the Chargers to win on your Ball Gazer form will not positively influence his in-game performance. The only two winners that everyone was sure of were the Packers and Seahawks. Schoolya’gain on the highlight reel again with the solo Lions pick (probably has their LB or something). Nice job though boo. As for the Monday night games, the picks are varied. Go Skins!

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2016 DRAFT

ABAs promised here are the draft ingredients.

WHEN: The Live Draft will be held on Sunday, September 4th at 11:00am EDT. There are still only 4 time zones in the continental US under the current administration, so the math remains the same – that’s 10:00am for all cheese spongers, and 8:00am for the plate tectonics on the left coast.

League veteran, Holy Cross alum, Tom Brady reach-around world record holder, and Mr. Special Treatment himself, White Wes Welkers, will be somewhere in the Pacific Ocean between Honolulu and Darwin (Australia). Let’s all send my man Copper Pipe some good juju from the land of the big PX. Getting online for the draft from the USS Coronado will likely be a deployment in itself. Our thoughts and best wishes are with you my friend. You are the HMFIC – send up a balloon, make it happen.

WHERE: The Live Draft will be held in Virginia Beach at newcomer Reason to Kerrigan’s beach bungalow in the sun. All team owners are invited to attend. League Manager will set up the usual Google Hangout beforehand for pre-draft high jinks and chicanery. Champagne coolies will be flowin’ like hot oil out of the rear main seal of a ’66 Dodge Polara. You know what I’m talkin’ bout dog. Any team owner that shows up on a beach/street cruiser has all post-draft cocktails paid for by the League Commissioner. Bike-gang after-party TBD.

WHO: This is it. The Draft order is set. Using multiple offline and online randomizers, multiple team owners set in to motion the 2016 Draft Lottery for the first overall pick. Based on the rules of The Lombardi Three Constitution, this year’s first overall draft pick is…

AIR JORDY

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I don’t want to hear it. Multiple team owners participated in the process. Get over it. The rest of the Draft order is set below. Remember we draft in snake format, reversing the order each round. The Lombardi Three Constitution is your point of reference. You should all have a copy on you at all times.

Draft Order

Stay tuned for the 2016 Bench Swap Forms and another friendly reminder or two to PAY YOUR DUES. Do your homework, keep your nose clean, and say your novenas to whatever fantasy football god you curse on Sundays. From here on out you’re on your own…

-The Commish

MTL3GA