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PRE-DRAFT ADMIN & WAFFLES

DRAFT – Draft order is set. Draft is early, so set your alarms. Waffles will be served promptly at 8am.

BALL GAZERS – 2018 Ball Gazer forms are updated. Week 1 is due prior to the start of the Thursday Night Falcons-Eagles game on 9/6.  You have time.

PROFILES – A few teams have changed the carpet and the drapes. It’s an administrative pain in the ass to me, but worth it to see the new team names and custom logos. I better not see one of those stock, yahoo’d colored helmets on our site. Creativity harnesses passion and ownership, which further generates participation and success. Get creative, be successful.

 

Davante’s Inferno

SKOLya’gain

Filthadelphia

(recommended image)

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2018 1st Overall Draft Pick

A multi-layered, combination offline and online random generated selection has been performed under the eye of two veteran franchises. Every team not already guaranteed a spot in the draft was included in the selection process. The winner of the 2018 1st Overall Draft Pick is…

 

Amendola Sent Me

…I mean, Gronk Out With Your Honk Out

……I mean, Mr. Gisele Bundchen

………I mean, The Brady Bundchen

congrats go out to

WHITE WES WELKERS

don’t fuck it up

 

The rest of the order shifts up. Yeah, you still last Bagel.

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Pay Day

The League Dues page has been updated to reflect cash winnings. All winnings have been distributed as of this post. Final league standings, including the NIT results, are outlined below.

I sincerely want to recognize the Lake Hickory Swallops for their season. And not just the NIT blowout and pulling off the cash win. This is a team that scored the third most points in the league, and would have smoked every single one of us in the playoffs. Had he not been up against one of the toughest schedules in the league this year, and pulled off just one or two more wins during the regular season, he would have made the playoffs and dominated all three games. During Weeks 14, 15, and 16, LHS put up 193, 156, and 214, respectively. None of us would have survived that onslaught. Respect.

I will likely forego the usual “League Trophies” post as there is no way to create custom trophies on Yahoo.com. Although, I do recommend you check out the Record Book page on our league site which breaks down the various accolades, points, stats, medals, and what-nots of the season. I really like the Team Points page that outlines the ‘Points From Draft Players’ and the ‘Points From Post-Draft Acquisitions’. This is the data that I wish I had the time to nerd-out on and track closer, as these are the type metrics that we should be engaging.

2017 Single Game League Leaders
QB – Alex Smith (49.30 points in Week 13) – Air Jordy
RB – Todd Gurley II (49.60 points in Week 16) – Lake Hickory Swallops
WR – Julio Jones (50.80 points in Week 12) – Whitey Ford’s Team
TE – Jack Doyle (30.10 points in Week 8) – White Wes Welkers
K – Robbie Gould (24.00 points in Week 15) – Air Jordy
DEF – Baltimore Ravens (61.30 points in Week 6) – Reason to Kerrigan
LB – C. J. Mosley (20.30 points in Week 8) – Schoolya’gain

SEASON HIGH SCORE – Air Jordy (224.40 points in Week 15)
SEASON WIN STREAK –Christian’s Brothers (+7 Weeks 9-15)

Thanks again for your patience with the new league platform on Yahoo and the offline NIT playoff tracking. Stay tuned for one last sunset post on this year’s league champion and the future of The Lombardi Three…

-The Commish

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End of Regular Season 2017

At the conclusion of the Regular Season, we have each played each other once. I have updated our Strength of Schedule and see no real surprises here – same narrative, different weeks. I was hoping to see some of it balance out, but we have deviated even further from the mean. A team’s advantage of +23.7% far exceeds any we have seen throughout our league history. Same goes for a disadvantage of -19.8%. My conclusion after this year’s results, combined with the impoverished health of the NFL and the size of our rosters, is that we can only be competitive as a 10-team league, statistically speaking. Otherwise it’s just random luck.

A potential alternative is to disregard regular season standings and utilize aggregate rankings to measure a team’s performance and determine playoff seeding. Clear evidence already exists that supports this option as we have never had a #1 or #2 seed win the playoffs. We are obviously not structuring this right.

Maybe this year will be different. Christian’s Brothers has hit his stride and is averaging 184.5 points per week over his current 5-game win streak. Maybe this year will be more of the same. Last year’s Regular Season champ, Trouble Hunter, averaged 181.2 over her regular season finale, but came up short in the playoffs and finished 5th on the season. Same fall from grace met Air Jordy in the 2015 and 2014 seasons where he averaged 203.9 and 190.3 per week, respectively, and lost in the first round of each playoff. Lady Luck breaks up with all of us eventually. She clearly had commitment issues.

Regular Season Awards
Regular Season Champion – Christian’s Brothers (20% Bonus)
Regular Season 2nd Place – Bagel Time* (5% Bonus)
Regular Season True Coach Ranking – Schoolya’gain (5% Bonus)

Regular Season True Coach Rankings
The Regular Season True Coach ranking is a carryover from our time on NFL.com. This ranking is tabulated throughout the season and measures your performance across three (3) categories – your point differential* in fantasy points between your starting and ideal lineup each week; how you breakdown weekly if you played all teams each week; and your overall W/L standing. *For our time on Yahoo.com, I replaced point differential with Total Points. It ends up being the same results and the math is much easier. Schoolya’gain finished 1st, 2nd, and 5th, respectively.

Schoolya’gain
Christian’s Brothers
Air Jordy
UnLockin’ Yo Schtuff
Bagel Time*
White Wes Welkers
Trouble Hunter
Lake Hickory Swallops
Whitey Ford’s Team
K-Nasty
Reason to Kerrigan
Tannehill for President
Wanted Dez or Alive
IJamAllDay

Guaranteed to Cash on Wins
Christian’s Brothers
Bagel Time*
Trouble Hunter
UnLockin’ Yo Schtuff

Chance to Cash on Wins (# of Playoff Wins Required)
Schoolya’gain (1)
Whitey Ford’s Team (1)
Air Jordy (2)
White Wes Welkers (2)
Reason to Kerrigan (2)

Only one of the following teams can cash out, and they need to win the Consolation Bracket Playoffs to do so. This will guarantee half their dues back and the #4 pick in next year’s draft. Of course, Wanted Dez or Alive could #RunTheTable and kill all of their chances to cash.

Lake Hickory Swallops (3)
K-Nasty (3)
Tannehill for President (3)
IJamAllDay (3)

Single Game League Leaders (through Week 13)
QB – Alex Smith (49.30 points in Week 13) – Air Jordy
RB – Kareem Hunt (44.60 points in Week 1) – Air Jordy
WR – Julio Jones (50.80 points in Week 12) – Whitey Ford’s Team
TE – Jack Doyle (30.10 points in Week 8) – White Wes Welkers
K – Ryan Succop (21.50 points in Week 6) – IJamAllDay
DEF – Baltimore Ravens (61.30 points in Week 6) – Reason to Kerrigan
LB – C. J. Mosley (20.30 points in Week 8) – Schoolya’gain

SEASON HIGH SCORE – Whitey Ford’s Team (219.5 points in Week 12)
SEASON WIN STREAK – Schoolya’gain (+5 Weeks 6-10) and Christian’s Brothers (+5 Weeks 9-13)

 

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Strength of Schedule

Schoolya’gain flipped the district in Week 10 and unseated that gerrymandering, bench-swappin’ Bagel Time* in order take back the house. And she did it legit, with a Strength of Schedule differential right down the center of the spectrum. She was one of only two teams to survive an upset this week and has averaged 167 points per game over her current, league-leading 5-game win streak.

I have attempted to measure our strength of schedule through Week 10 by comparing each team’s current win percentage to their win percentage if they played every other team in the league each week. This is a very simple method for measuring how hard, or unlucky, your schedule has been and vice versa. I have charted these results below.

I caveat the following analysis not to pick on any teams in particular, but to provide defined examples of how the calculations are derived and demonstrate the unforgiving nature of playing this game from year to year. No matter what you do, sometimes the odds are just stacked against you. Don’t take it personal.

Looking at the EASY (or lucky (however you wish to look at it)) end of the spectrum, Christian’s Brothers, IJamAllDay, Bagel Time, and Trouble Hunter have had the most fortunate matchups to date, respectively.

  • Christian’s Brothers has enjoyed a +19.2% advantage thus far, having been fortunate enough to compete against one of only a few teams who he could have beaten in multiple weeks. In Week 2, ten of the other thirteen teams in the league would have bested Christian Brother’s had they faced him, yet he was fortunate enough to have faced one of the only three teams he could have beaten. This happened again in Week 4 when the odds were even slimmer. Eleven teams in the league would have outscored CB, but again, he faced one of the two teams that couldn’t.
  • IJamAllDay has been able to make the most of a +16.2% advantage, by scoring the least amount of points in the league but still managing a 5-5 record and a potential playoff position in the current standings. Looking at the same weekly scenarios, IJAD had the same luck in Week 6, as he squared off against one of only three teams he could have beaten that week.
  • Bagel Time’s* advantage of 15.4% is negatively inflated by the use of the Bench Swap. Had he taken a loss that week he would be closer to the spectrum at 5.4%. However, he’s not off the hook. In Week 2 BT* had the luxury of playing one of only two teams he could have beaten that week, earning a win after a 124-point effort. Five other teams lost that week and they scored 140 points or more.
  • Ditto Trouble Hunter in Weeks 2 and 8, facing one of the only two teams with a lower score in both matchups. Unfortunately for TH, she hasn’t been able to benefit as much from this luck as she has experienced both ends of the spectrum having lost in Week 9 to one of only four teams who could have beaten her.

Looking at the HARD (or unlucky) end of the spectrum, Air Jordy, Wanted Dez or Alive, Lake Hickory Swallops, K-Nasty and White Wes Welkers have had the most unfortunate matchups to date, respectively.

  • Air Jordy has faced an -18.5% disadvantage thus far. Same story, different results. This started in Week 2 after putting up 170 points (170 points has only been eclipsed 22 times over our 140 scores this season) and losing to one of the only 2 teams with higher outputs. This happened again in Week 10 facing one of only 4 teams with the chops needed to win.
  • A somewhat different scenario has plagued both Wanted Dez or Alive (-17.7% disadvantage) and Lake Hickory Swallops (-14.6% disadvantage) all season. Other than one or two duds, they have both been putting up consistent middle of the road numbers, but continually end up with the short straw when facing the one half of the league that could challenge them. For these guys it’s either been bad luck, or no luck at all.
  • K-Nasty (-11.5% disadvantage) put up great numbers in Weeks 6 and 7, but faced one of the only four teams to beat him in Week 6, and a bottom half matchup in Week 7 driving his strength of schedule differential down. Another middle of the road guy that can’t catch a break.
  • In Weeks 5 and 7, White Wes Welkers (-11.5% disadvantage) would have taken down any one of eight and nine matchups, respectively. These two wins would have been the difference between a 10th place and a 4th place standing. To add insult to injury, these losses were the meat of his league-leading, 5-game losing streak covering Weeks 3 through 7.

With three weeks left in the regular season, maybe these odds will start to balance themselves out as we compete against the remaining teams in the league we haven’t faced yet. A full historical Strength of Schedule will be performed and analyzed against the final standings for each season. Though, the more I dig in to the random, uncontrollable nature of fantasy football, the more I question its value. I fear where this will take me.

Of final note, Week 11 is traditionally our lowest scoring week of the season on average and we are trending that direction. Chart below explains everything.

We have new single-game leaders at QB, TE and LB. All of our top performances came out of Weeks 6 through 8, with the exception of RB, which still hasn’t been broken since Week 1.

Single Game League Leaders (through Week 10)
QB – Russel Wilson (46.60 points in Week 8) – Wanted Dez or Alive
RB – Kareem Hunt (44.60 points in Week 1) – Air Jordy
WR – Amari Cooper (44.00 points in Week 7) – Trouble Hunter
TE – Jack Doyle (30.10 points in Week 8) – White Wes Welkers
K – Ryan Succop (21.50 points in Week 6) – IJamAllDay
DEF – Baltimore Ravens (61.30 points in Week 6) – Reason to Kerrigan
LB – C. J. Mosley (20.30 points in Week 8) – Schoolya’gain

SEASON HIGH SCORE – Wanted Dez or Alive (212.45 points in Week 3)
SEASON WIN STREAK – Schoolya’gain (+5 Weeks 6-10)

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Post Week 7 Quickie

Bagel Time* has been blowing up my phone, desperate to gab about the state of the union through Week 7 and, you know, gloat a bit. Well…Bagel Time* is #1; Bagel Time* has scored the third most points in the league (while subsequently facing the second least points in the league); and Bagel Time* has posted the highest single-game Tight End and Linebacker performances to date. Bagel Time* is also getting an asterisk next to his name for the rest of the season.
*Team used a Bench Swap – results inflated.

We’re past Hump Day on the regular season. Week 7 was the second highest scoring week of the year, just 26.80 points shy of Week 3’s output. During the last three weeks, since our last update, five new single-game individual performance records were set, including the 61.30-point symphony by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 6. This is the highest defensive output in League History, including the earlier years when we awarded bonuses for huge plays. And they put up another 50 last night. Whoever is playing Reason to Kerrigan in Week 10, when the Ravens are on BYE, is one lucky S.O.B.

The state of the union is still in flux with the top and bottom halves of the league only a single game separated. Most of us are scraping by week to week, trying to grab whatever backup may be poised for a decent fill-in role that week, usually due to injury of another sub-standard teammate, in hopes that the proverbial ‘breakout’ status will accompany his inflated projection. Hope is fantasy football’s drug of choice, and we are all addicted to it.

Speaking of fantasy football addicts, I am particularly concerned with the health of White Wes Welkers. Having scraped together the 7th most points in the league, WWW has somehow dropped the last five matchups. Averaging 170 points per over the first two weeks, WWW has dropped to 135 per over the last five. May be time to reboot buddy. Why don’t you go ahead and move back east and we’ll work on this together.

My only other concern is with Wanted Dez or Alive. This A+ drafted squad holds the single-game high-score for the league at 212.45 in Week 3, but has averaged only 127.4 points per over the other six weeks. I think I know what’s going on here…according to a recent story in GQ, Trump secretly backed a grassroots campaign in 2014 to turn the Buffalo Bills and the people of Buffalo against Bon Jovi, because (big surprise) Trump lied and said that if Bon Jovi bought the team, he was going to move the Bills to Toronto. Interesting read. Stay focused buddy. You still got 200+ in you.

Alright TL3 – quick post. Just making sure the lights are still on.
-The Commish

Single Game League Leaders (through Week 7)
QB – Tom Brady (46.50 points in Week 3) – Unlockin’ Yo Schtuff
RB – Kareem Hunt (44.60 points in Week 1) – Air Jordy
WR – Amari Cooper (44.00 points in Week 7) – Trouble Hunter
TE – Jordan Reed (26.40 points in Week 7) – Bagel Time*
K – Ryan Succop (21.50 points in Week 6) – IJamAllDay
DEF – Baltimore Ravens (61.30 points in Week 6) – Reason to Kerrigan
LB – Telvin Smith (19.80 points in Week 5) – Bagel Time*
HIGH SCORE – Wanted Dez or Alive (212.45 points in Week 3)

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Hao Jiu Mei Jian

Yes, this is a TL3 blog post. Rare sighting this season, I know. Truth is, your league biographer has been completely consumed with a new gig and dropped anchor during the busiest time of the year. That combined with a lot of personal travel kept yours truly off the laptop. To top it off, there has been an enormous amount of turmoil in the league this year related to injuries and the impact thereof, leaving us languishing and wearied in winds of uncertainty. The league standings reeling to and fro like grain fields swaying in the breeze; so heavy upon them the disappointment of their ever-changing rosters. An injury plagued season does not bode well for a 14-team league – something that was insufficiently considered with the re-expansion this season.

Having had time on my side, I’m not sure the weekly commentary would have held much weight or importance to it. The only permanence in the league has come from one team, Trouble Hunter. This fantasy rookie has thoroughly dominated this season and held an unrelenting half nelson on lady luck like no other team in league history. To date, TH has scored an average of 186 points per week, has players ranked in the top 7 at every position, with the exception of Kicker, and leads 3 out of 4 coaching metrics. In unprecedented fashion, TH still maintains 12 of 16 draft picks including 11 of the top 12 picks as healthy starters. No other team in the league can boast this level of good fortune. The chart below measures your wins against the reverberation of your draft picks.

week-10-players-remaining

Of note, reigning two-time regular season champion, Air Jordy, has had their roster completely decimated this season, retaining only 4 of the original 16 players drafted. Fortunately for AJ, they have faced the least amount of competition in the league to date and narrowly escaped with six wins, including an overturned win by 0.05 points (lowest in league history) in Week 3 after late stat corrections.

With a 5-way tie for second place and more than half the league only a game apart, playoff spots are still up for grabs for every team in the league. Although, teams looking to play the long game may possibly start thinking about next season. I want to remind you that this season we officially implemented the ability to utilize future draft picks as acquisition value. To support this type transaction I offer the following optional supplement to The Lombardi Three Constitution.

16.1.4 – The Big Short: Bearish traders may include an option as value to their trade deals. The option reduces the draft pick by one (1) round for each week (full game) the player acquired is injured and does not play, for a maximum of five (5) rounds. Suspension, partial games played, or poor performance are not valid against the option. E.g., Player A is traded for a 3rd round draft pick including the option. If the player misses 2 weeks due to injury, the draft pick drops to the 5th round. If the player misses the rest of the season the draft pick drops a maximum of five (5) rounds to the 8th round. This supplement is optional and must be specifically included in the trade deal.

Another trade issue arose this season that officially needs to be addressed. Due to current systematic restrictions on the NFL.com platform, the trade execution window of one (1) day is regularly stalled for an additional day due to what time of day the trade is officially accepted. For example, if a trade is accepted on Wednesday morning, the 1-day trade window does not officially start until the beginning of the next full day, Thursday, pushing the application of the trade until Friday morning. This makes it especially difficult to complete a trade for players competing on Thursday night games. The following amendment to The Lombardi Three Constitution supports this and potentially related scenarios, allowing for the teams involved to have their trade expedited.

16.2 – Hammer Time: Upon request, the League Manager has the ability to cut the red tape and expedite any accepted trade that has passed a 24-hour rejection window. The request must come from both teams involved. Manual adjustment to the team lineups will be made once the trade takes effect.

Looking ahead, we are facing the potential for playoff seeds being determined by tiebreaker, so I’m looking forward to covering the parade of make-or-break scenarios. I’ve been reading up on some new fantasy platforms including some unfranchised, private, pay-to-play platforms. Without doubt, we will never play another season on NFL.com. Additionally, five years of action, and the overall physical nature of the NFL, have confirmed that we are better with a 12-team lineup. How we incorporate reductions are TBD at a much later date. With that in mind, stop thinking, let things happen, and be the ball.

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Ball Gazer Results

Ball Gazer Results for 2016 have been posted to the Bench Swaps page. Each of the three weeks had one team missing the cut by a single game, with a notable Week 1 by RGIII’s Company at 13-3. Let’s not lose sight though of how much he sucked thereafter. Especially impressive, Schoolya’gain led the bunch with an average of double-digit (+10) successful picks each week. Take the value of that and add $3, and she can get herself a nice bowl of soup. The Whiteshadow couldn’t manage to break the .500 mark in the first two outings, so he must have wiped his ass with week three’s form. Tannehill for President and Bagel Time also stunk it up, but they keep expectations low to stay off of anyone’s lodestar. Don’t worry boys, no one noticed.

In summary, there are no winners this season. Till next year.

A copy of the results has been provided below with accompanying legend.

bg-results

legend

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Mr. Falcon

We may have a winner. As it stands there is one team that is sitting at 11-4 with the Monday night game to go. Pick: Saints. There are currently two teams with Bench Swaps in their back pockets (carried over from previous seasons). If you don’t want to face a third team with the unrelenting ability to chop off your head this season, I’d don that A-Town black and red tonight, break out the chicken-n-beer, put on some Ludacris, pour some O’E’ 800 on the block, give a big shout out to Buckhead, where old money lives and new money parties, and pray to the Falcon gods!

2-tommy_nobis_2

Or beseech Mr. Falcon himself, Tommy Nobis. In November 1965, Nobis became the first player drafted by the expansion Atlanta Falcons. The Houston Oilers also selected him in the AFL draft. This presented a dilemma and sparked a debate that reached as far as outer space when astronaut Frank Borman, aboard Gemini 7, talked back to earth with the message, “tell Nobis to sign with Houston.” (Borman’s sons were ball boys for the Oilers.) Nobis instead signed with Atlanta on December 14 and became the first member of the Atlanta Falcons, gaining the nickname “Mr. Falcon.”

Falcons great Tommy Nobis

Nobis holds an NFL record for 294 tackles and 12 interceptions in a rookie season. In eleven professional seasons he led the Falcons in tackles nine times, went to five Pro Bowls, was named All-Pro twice and was chosen for the NFL’s “All-Decade Team” for the 1960s. Beyond that, good luck trying to figure out Nobis’s true impact, because the stat lines aren’t really out there. The NFL didn’t start recording sacks for individual players until 1982, and his tackle numbers are lost to time. Probably why he is not in the NFL Hall of Fame today. Though you can mount a fair and reasonable case that he’s the greatest player Atlanta has ever known.

The rest of us are 86’d so on to this week’s results (minus tonight’s matchup)…

11-4
Trouble Hunter

10-5
Schoolya’gain

8-7
Bagel Time
IJamAllDay
White Wes Welkers

7-8
Air Jordy
Eastside Forty-Ounces
Lake Hickory Swallops
Reason to Kerrigan

6-9
Tannehill for President

5-10
RGIII’s Company
Unlockin Yo Schtuff
Wanted Dez or Alive

1-14
The Whiteshadow

Highlights: The Packers, Dolphins and Panthers were consensus picks – including Teddy B’s bae, Schoolya’gain, betting against her victorious Vikings. The only two teams to correctly pick the Bills were the two girls in our league – also the top two finishers this week. Unlockin Yo Schtuff and Wanted Dez or Alive were the only two teams to pick the 49ers over the Seahawks – and subsequently finish dead last. Yes, The Whiteshadow finished at 1-14 but he was also 100%. He only picked the Thursday night game. Lake Hickory Swallops was the only team that correctly picked the Eagles to win, but he also picked every home game with the exception of the Bills and Patriots, so there’s that. Lastly, RGIII’s Company was the only squad to throw the Bears a bone.

According to Jason Diamond of Rolling Stone, in the last decade, there has possibly been no bigger destroyer of football dreams than Jay Cuter of the Chicago Bears. Check out this article.

Thanks for your Ball Gazer participation this season ladies and gentleman. I for one am glad this shit is over.

Go Falcons!

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Ball Gazers – Week 1 Results

rgiiiFull disclosure – no one made the cut, so the following audit does not include the two Monday night games.

I have to say – not a bad showing, even though we were all nixed by the conclusion of the 1pm games with the exception of this week’s best in show, RGIII’s Company. Our two-time league champ had picked every game except the Bucs, Lions and Patriots. He had to wait out the late game last night to see if he was still in it. Oh wait, our champ lives in California. The late game is only punishment for the rest of us.

Ironically, the one and only team to pick the Patriots to win the late game was the only guy to ever drop $99.99 on the Bill Belichick Business School VHS catalog, White Wes Welkers. Seriously brochacho, no one picked the Pats to win. That has got to feel good.

On to the results:

11-3
RGIII’s Company

10-4
Air Jordy

9-5
Reason to Kerrigan
Schoolya’gain
White Wes Welkers

8-6
Eastside Forty-Ounces
IJamAllDay
Lake Hickory Swallops

7-7
Bagel Time
Tannehill for President
The Whiteshadow
Trouble Hunter
Unlockin Yo Schtuff

6-8
Wanted Dez or Alive

Highlights:
The only 2 teams to pick the Broncos to beat the Panthers were RGII’s Company and Reason to Kerrigan. Eastside Forty-Ounces was the only team to not pick the Browns to lose. The fuck? Schoolya’gain was the only team that hoped the Chargers would win. Pro tip honeybun (i.e., mansplaining) – just because you drafted Philip Rivers, picking the Chargers to win on your Ball Gazer form will not positively influence his in-game performance. The only two winners that everyone was sure of were the Packers and Seahawks. Schoolya’gain on the highlight reel again with the solo Lions pick (probably has their LB or something). Nice job though boo. As for the Monday night games, the picks are varied. Go Skins!