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The 8 Seed

No matter what happens in Week 13, non-colluding lovebirds, Air Jordy and Schoolya’gain, will finish #1 and #2, respectively. Air Jordy will repeat as Regular Season Champion and this will serve as the only recognition thereof. The real party is just getting started.

Playoff seeds #3 through #6 will be mixed based on the results of Week 13. If you currently reside in one of these 4 positions in the league standings, you will certainly make the playoffs in one of these 4 spots.

Playoff seed #7 and #8 will not have it that easy. As we all know, the #8 seed dethroned the #1 seed in the first round of the playoffs last season and went on to win the league championship. That #8 seed is still up for grabs and the potential for history to repeat itself rests in the hands of 5 teams. I have broken down the 8 scenarios in Week 13 that will determine who gets a crack at the title.

Our current standings tiebreaker is set to Head to Head (H2H) record. The secondary tiebreaker is ‘Total Points For’ (the total points a team scored across the season). There are 2 primary results, each with 4 scenarios that determine who the #8 seed will be. The 2 primary results are essentially who wins and who loses the RGIII’s Company vs. Lake Hickory Swallops matchup.

Primary Result 1 – RGIII’s Company wins. Lake Hickory Swallops loses.
In the 4 scenarios outlined below, Lake Hickory Swallops will retain the #8 seed based on the H2H record between the two tied teams at 5-8 in Scenarios 1 and 3, and the Total Points For where the H2H records offset each other (each of the 3 teams at 5-8 in Scenarios 2 and 4 beat each other once, i.e., LHS 1-1, PC 1-1, T4VP 1-1). I place an asterisk next to the Points tiebreaker because LHS only has a 32.75 Total Points advantage over T4VP. If T4VP’s results in Week 13 exceed LHS’s results by this margin (very possible), then T4VP could win the tiebreaker. This is the only scenario T4VP makes the playoffs.
Simplified: If LHS loses, he better hope T4VP doesn’t outscore him by 32.75 points. Otherwise he’s in.

8 Seed Result 1

Primary Result 2 – Lake Hickory Swallops wins, RGIII’s Company loses.
This was a must-win for RG3. If he loses, he does not have a chance at the playoffs. In Scenarios 5 through 8 outlined below, the winner of the Packer Cave and Ya Down With ODBJ matchup takes the #8 seed based simply on the H2H records.
Simplified: RG3 and T4VP guaranteed out. Winner of PC vs. YD matchup is in.

8 Seed Result 2

*By the way, if Ya Down with ODBJ wins, his H2H tiebreaker with RG3 in Scenarios 5 and 8 was a result of the Week 4 matchup between the 2 teams where YD wins by the smallest possible margin, 0.10 points (142.20 – 142.30). I’ll say it again – that is a single yard for any player on the roster. Fucking inches man.

I do have a caveat to this analysis, especially with Primary Result 1. There is no official setting for a 3-way tiebreaker, like we have in Scenarios 2 and 4, and I have to assume that the tiebreaker goes to the ‘Total Points For’ as this is the secondary option. If the results end up different than what I have outlined, I will certainly investigate what the actual system settings determined and either provide justification or rectification. Either way, we will make sure the #8 spot is accurately and fairly seeded.

Go forth. Do what you do.
-The Commish

“A team that thinks it’s going to lose is going to lose.”
-Vince Lombardi

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Rest of Season (ROS) Analysis – Post Week 10

Here’s a quickie.

ROS Analysis post Week 10

Strength by Position (updated): Based on the rest of your matchups, to include the anticipated playoff standings and projected matchup results, each one of these positions is stronger than your scheduled opponents. Don’t forget, this analysis takes in to consideration future matchups – not only your fantasy opponent, but the NFL matchups you and your fantasy opponent’s face.

Improvement: Based on the ROS I put together in Week 7, this is the change in Projected Finish. This takes in to consideration injuries (…Bell), the acquisitions you made over the last few weeks, and overall player improvement/decline (…Manning). Some rookies are finally getting their shot and showing their full potential (…Langford).

Again, continue to improve in those point-heavy, ball-catching positions you are short in. This is the last week of BYEs. After this week, dump the dead weight and diversify your bench, or use some of that stock to trade up. There were some studied shifts for a few teams, so continue to work it. Pull up the Depth Charts on the League home page and see who needs/has what. If after Week 11 you are still holding 2 Kickers and/or 2 Linebackers, you are doing it wrong.

This was our second lowest scoring week of the season at 1,932.65 (low: Week 4 – 1,809.15, high: Week 7 – 2,095.40) so I’m sure everyone was a little depressed with their results. Don’t overlook the lynching by the Tannehill Boys, with RB’s West and Langford combining for 68.30 points. And with Romo expected back this week, his favorite target, Dez Bryant, will start to get his. Keep an eye out yo.

The standings are so tight right now that you are only 1 win away from the next tier. Remember the top 8 teams make the playoffs. Top 4 cash out. Get that money dawg.

-The Commish

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The Lombardi Three – Through Week 7

Since the National Football League began in 1920, only one team has played a complete perfect season (both regular season and playoffs): the 1972 Miami Dolphins, who won their fourteen regular season games and three postseason games, including Super Bowl VII, to finish the season 17–0–0. The Dolphins briefly extended their winning streak into the next season before losing to the Oakland Raiders on September 23, 1973.

1972 Dolphins-TeamPic2

It has often been reported that the surviving members of the 1972 Dolphins would either gather to drink champagne when the final undefeated team earned its first loss, or send a case of champagne to the team who beat this final undefeated team. The head coach of the 1972 Dolphins, Don Shula, did boringly deny this in a 2007 interview with ESPN. On August 20, 2013, four decades after their accomplishment, President Barack Obama hosted the ’72 Dolphins noting that they “never got their White House visit.”

Dolphins Fan

Why do I bring this up? Dolphins fan #1, Tannehill for Vice President (see above), knows what sort of legacy he was protecting and, quite fatefully and appropriately, dismantled Air Jordy in Week 7 crushing any hopes of a perfect, undefeated season.

Not that the 6-game winning streak was anything to brag about (Packer Cave went 8 straight in 2012, and Reservations For Six finished 7 in a row in 2013) but Air Jordy had been averaging 218.25 per week, 35 points per week more than his closest competitor, the White Wes Welkers, and 59 points per week more than the league average. Those averages took a slight dip in Week 7 after the pummeling by T4VP but don’t sleep on the League Leader. Air Jordy is healthy, has Big Ben coming back, owns the top 2 ball-carriers and 4 of the top 10 ball-catchers in the league. He faces IJamAllDay in Week 8, who is currently riding a 3-game win streak.

No matter where you sit in the standings right now, know one thing – you are only one game separated from half of the league surrounding you. The bottom 6 squads are only one game apart. Spots 2 through 6 are also only divided by a single win. This is about as balanced as it can be, I mean, half the league is going to lose each week. It’s that game of inches you have to play to get that next win and push yourself up to the next bracket. Two wins and you are in the top half of the league. Plenty of time left to find your OBJ (fuck that guy forever).

WHO’S HOT: IJamAllDay, Schoolya’gain and Lake Hickory Swallops have won 3 out of their last 4 matchups. The Swallops was hit with a Bench Swap this year so I imagine that chip on his shoulder is only going to make him more voracious. The White Wes Welkers are averaging 209.3 over the last 3 weeks and about the luckiest son-of-a-bitch I know. Trading Charles for Gronk right before the injury…it doesn’t get any luckier than that in fantasy football.

WHO’S NOT: Bagel Time has dropped 3 out of the last 4 showings after a strong 3-0 start. And despite the Week 7 takedown of Air Jordy, Tannehill for Vice President has lost another top tier RB for the season. This loss only decimates the RB field further and limits his options for recovery. But if anyone can do it, it’s T4VP. Despite the forthcoming Rest of Season (ROS) Analysis, I anticipate a rematch in the playoffs. You heard it here.

SLEEPER: RGIII’s Company, aka REDSKINS, aka Formerly GBJ, aka Genetic Black Jesus, is the ultimate sleeper squad. How this great white shark is not in the top 3 right now baffles me. If you drop his dud in Week 6, he is averaging 184.9 points per week, and has already put up an unreachable league high 280.90 in Week 3. Currently 10th, I guarantee he’s in the playoffs competing for the trophy again. The Rest of Season Analysis (source: confidential (I can’t give away all my secrets)) has him as the second strongest finisher in our league. Winter is coming. You heard it here.

REST OF SEASON (ROS) ANALYSIS: Strength by Position: Based on the rest of your matchups, each one of these positions is stronger than your scheduled opponents. So, essentially, man up in the other positions if you want to compete and kill this analysis. You may have done ok thus far, but this analysis takes in to consideration future matchups – not only your fantasy opponent, but the NFL matchups you and your fantasy opponent’s face.

And take a look at that – strength in WRs dominate the league, not the QB position. The top 3 QBs are currently on the rosters of teams in the bottom half of the league, and projected to stay there. This is a PPR league – Point Per Reception, not Point Per Completion (which is a scoring mechanism by the way, and a potential add-on for next season). Points per completion, at 1 point per, would be an interesting add. It would be nice to see our QB position have a little more impact on the league. Something to think about.

ROS Analysis

We have not reached the halfway point yet in the season. Still plenty of time. Be good or be good at it. Enjoy your weekends.
-The Commish

POSTSCRIPT: Prior to the development of a playoff system in the NFL in 1932, four teams, including the 1929 Green Bay Packers, also had an “undefeated” season. However, according to the 2012 NFL Record & Fact Book, under NFL practices at the time, from 1920 to 1971 tie games were not included in winning percentage. So, these four teams were recorded with perfect win percentages of 1.000.

1929 PACKERS-TeamPic

*I have one last little nugget for you. As you know, exhibition games are generally not counted toward standings, for or against. That said, the 1972 Miami Dolphins lost three of their preseason “exhibition” games in 1972. Just something funny to throw at one of those rare Dolphins fans you meet.

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Be Good or Be Good at It

cockblockOne…two….three…..four……FIVE Bench Swaps earned this week! And that’s before the start of tonight’s Kansas City – Green Bay game. When Green Bay wins tonight, one of our teams will be 15-1. And that dude still has a Bench Swap left over from last season. Hot damn, I hope he played those picks in his weekly pool. Let’s get to it.

A log has been created and added to the Bench Swaps page to keep track of the Bench Swaps earned and used.

Analysis: With the minimum 12 out of 16 requirement for Week 3’s Ball Gazers already met, the result of tonight’s game will not have an impact on the five winners. For the four of you out there that didn’t submit…..this shit has gotta hurt.

14-1
UnLockin Yo Schtuff (Green Bay) – next opp. Bagel Time

13-2
Packer Cave (Green Bay) – next opp. Tannehill For President

12-3
Air Jordy (Green Bay) – next opp. Eastside Forty-Ounces
Bagel Time (Green Bay) – next opp. UnLockin Yo Schtuff
White Wes Welkers (Green Bay) – next opp. Schoolya’gain

10-5
Schoolya’gain

9-6
Lake Hickory Swallops
Tannehill For President

0-16
Eastside Forty-Ounces
IJamAllDay
RG3III’s Company
Ya Down With ODBJ

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We Have a Winner!

BradfordYeah right – winner of Last Place! Holy shit that was bad. Like really bad. Like Cowboys-Eagles, cross-eyed Sam Bradford bad. I really don’t have too many words for this. There were only 7 submissions, but maybe those 5 separatists knew something we didn’t. Or maybe they just wanted to save the embarrassment of the following list of results. Good news is that the final submissions for Week 3 will only command 12 out of 16 correct picks to earn a Bench Swap. This is the week we saw 2 swaps earned last season.

Analysis: Ignominious and discommodious. We were all eighty-sixed by the conclusion of the 1:00 pm games. A few of you were sunk after the first 3 games. No one selected the Browns, Buccs, Skins, Raiders or Jags to win. One Packer-diehard chose the Seahawks to win, but only to guarantee victory for the Green and Gold. Shit works like that sometimes, you know.

6-9
Air Jordy
Tannehill For President
Ya Down With ODBJ

5-10
Eastside Forty-Ounces (0-3 for the first 3 games)

4-11
Bagel Time
Schoolya’gain (0-6 for the first 6 games)

3-12
Lake Hickory Swallops (0-3 for the first 3 games)

0-16 (AWOL)
IJamAllDay
Packer Cave
RGIII’s Company
UnLockin Yo Schtuff
White Wes Welkers

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You’ll Get Nothing and Like It

By the conclusion of the 4:00 PM games, there were no teams left eligible for a Bench Swap. We were done by the 1:00 PM games last year so either we are getting better at this or the spread was just that much greater.

Of the 8 submissions, no one picked the Bears, Skins or Raiders to win. Only Tannehill For Prez correctly picked the Rams to beat the Seahawks. Eastside Forty-Oz was the only one to pick the Giants over the Cowboys, and Schoolya’gain was the only one that thought the Ravens would beat the Broncos at home. Her card was ugly but she looked damn good at the bar yesterday sporting her new fantasy gear.

Schoolya

Analysis: Eight out of twelve submissions is lame. You can’t win the lottery unless you play. That’s…like…the only requirement to win. Someone is probably going to win this thing next week. Why are the Raiders still a football team? How long is that gonna go on??

11-3
Bagel Time
Tannehill For President

10-4
Air Jordy
White Wes Welkers

9-5
Eastside Forty-Ounces
Packer Cave

9-3
Ya Down With ODBJ (left 2 teams off of his submission – wtf dude?)

7-7
Schoolya’gain

0-16 (Absconders)
IJamAllDay
Lake Hickory Swallops
RGIII’s Company
UnLockin Yo Schtuff

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2015 Draft Winner

The Live Draft will be this Saturday morning September 5th at 11:30am eastern. That’s 8:30am for the dirt-devils out west and somewhere in between for you cheese-eaters. Two (2) days people – do what you gotta do.

Air Jordy and Eastside Forty-Ounces have run a series of offline and online randomizers and the winner of the 1st Overall Draft Pick is….

RGIII’s COMPANY

 

This is about the only action any RGIII will see this season. The rest of the teams fall in to place based on the rules of the Constitution.

2015 Draft Order

If you have any bitches, moans or complaints about anything, I no longer care. We are now on the other side of the field from each other. You have been provided everything you need. You create your own wealth from here…